The problem is that 26% strikeout rate is likely gonna be north of 30% when he gets to the majors. A hitter really has to mash to overcome that.
The problem is that 26% strikeout rate is likely gonna be north of 30% when he gets to the majors. A hitter really has to mash to overcome that.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
I think a mid 300's BABIP would be the norm for a top prospect in the minors. Then again cut that closer to .300 in the majors.Originally Posted by thethe
Kudos to you for a legit reasonable take.
Didn’t say he’s a stud. Didn’t say he sucks bc of one stat.
Riley is a legit prospect. He’s still young per level. Everyone says the arm is great and the d is much better. People can argue if the d is avg or better. Power is legit. The hit tool, elite velocity pitch recognition etc we can debate about.
Love having him in our system. I still think he’s two years away at least with aa here.
Prior to this year, Riley averaged around .340. So the BABIP north of .400 is abnormally high for him and for anyone else for that matter.
However, the strikeout rate of 26% in kinda normal for him.
So going forward I would say he is a .340 BABIP/26% strikeout rate hitter. Probably 30% or higher strikeout rate at the major league level.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Understood - So the expected regression is not as much so far for Riley but of course nobody should BABIP over 400.
I guess that means the big knock on him (2017 time at A+) was due to bad luck? Therefore, is it a consensus that he is now a top prospect? What else does he need to do?
Natural Immunity Croc
He's a prospect. But I would argue only about a 50% chance he develops into a major league regular.
Right now we only have two minor league hitting prospects who imo have a better than 50% chance of becoming major league regulars: Acuna and Pache.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Could of been bad luck or he could have just improved his game. Either way he is doing really well now which is what matters. At the end of the year I had him as a back end 50FV guy which would of had him in the 100-125 or so range. Clearly others have him higher. If he keeps playing well his stock will only rise.
What else does he need to do? Stay healthy and show he has the ability to play 3B at the big league level. Cutting down on the strikeouts would be nice but you can live with mid to upper 20's if he's doing other things like hitting for power.
Fair. Jackson is probably a bench bat with a 25% chance to be an impact dude if he can catch. Waters is too far away.
Good news is that I think we have 1b 2b ss cf and a corner locked down for years.
Riley I see as a guy who slashed 250/300/450-500 with average defensive. What war would that be?
He was unlucky in A+ and lucky in AA last year. It is misleading to give a lot to of weight to one or the other. The average of the two is much closer to what he really is.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
If we can draft Madrigal or Turang I think we'd be in good shape as far as position players go.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Will acuna's current 32.6% become 40%?
In a significantly larger sample, Acuna's strikeout rate in AAA last year was 19.8%. Along with age for level, etc, etc, that's why he is the #1 rated prospect in the game.
For this season in the majors, I think his strikeout rate will be in the 25-30% range. Given his age, this is likely to improve over the next few years.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Rough guess is 2-3 WAR
Drop Riley's BABIP down to .340 so far and you're looking at .286/.348/.595. Enscheff would argue that's still too high, but it's the minors.
I think something like Russ's line is probably a reasonable projection. .250/.305/.450, something like that. My hope is he ends up a tick better by dropping his K rate some, but we'll just have to see.
Hopefully last night gets Manchild going - his ABs were better across the board. Didn't chase, and looked much more comfortable.
Didn't see the play that bit Gohara, but it obviously was a bad butchering - he seemed to be solid otherwise.
An off night for Soroka's still going to be solid in most starts - need to be careful with his innings so we can break in later when McCarthy inevitably misses time.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
That's a RHed Jake Lamb, which is the comp I hang on Riley all the time.
As thewupk said, a 2-3 win player.
Riley is a good prospect.
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