Results 1 to 15 of 15

Thread: Attrition Rates for Aces

  1. #1
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts

    Attrition Rates for Aces

    Just looking at recent Cy Young award winners we have:

    R.A. Dickey winning in 2012 and seeing his FIP rise from 3.27 to 4.58.

    Johan Santana winning in 2004 and 2006 with the Twins, signing the big contract with the Mets and we know the rest of that story.

    Tim Lincecum winning in 2008 and 2009 with FIPs of 2.62 and 2.34 and then following up in the next four years with FIPs of 3.15, 3.17, 4.18 and 3.74.

    Roy Halladay winning in 2010 and following up with an even better 2011, then injury and oblivion.

    Other recent Cy Young winners that provide cautionary tales include Barry Zito, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb and Chris Carpenter.

    If you look at the pitchers who were in the Top 25 in WAR in 2012, it would include the following who saw substantial declines in production in 2013: Gio Gonzalez, CC Sabathia, Johnny Cueto, R.A. Dickey, Wade Miley, Jake Peavy, Matt Cain, Matt Harrison, Josh Johnson, Kyle Lohse, Jarrod Parker.

    Let's not fool ourselves. This is one risky asset class.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 11-03-2013 at 12:29 PM.

  2. #2
    Called Up to the Major Leagues
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,007
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    932
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    425
    Thanked in
    300 Posts
    Not following what this thread is about. Is there a common theme here? Each situation is different. Dickey had to adjust a new team (one that wasn't built properly) and a new league. Santana's had a significant injury history. Lincecum lost velocity.

    Zito is old news. Bad contract, but they get *some* redemption.

    When did Matt Harrison become an ace? Of Lohse and Gonzales for that matter.

  3. #3
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    Not following what this thread is about. Is there a common theme here? Each situation is different. Dickey had to adjust a new team (one that wasn't built properly) and a new league. Santana's had a significant injury history. Lincecum lost velocity.

    Zito is old news. Bad contract, but they get *some* redemption.

    When did Matt Harrison become an ace? Of Lohse and Gonzales for that matter.
    Harrison, Lohse etc were mentioned as being in the Top 25 for pitcher's WAR in 2012.

    You're right that each case is different. The common denominator is significant decline. Some due to injury. Some due to other reasons. It is like a portfolio of stocks. They all go up and down for different reasons. My point has to do with overall riskiness of significant performance decline of top pitchers, whether they be called aces or some other word.

  4. #4
    Clique Leader weso1's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    [Omitted]
    Posts
    6,694
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,295
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    3,056
    Thanked in
    1,708 Posts
    It's a very legitimate point. I think the Braves should only get an Ace if they can do so without giving up too much. With that in mind we are in a unique position where we could give up a current #2 starter and more if Wren has that desire. That way we wouldn't have to give up too much of the future.
    thank you weso1!

  5. #5
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by weso1 View Post
    With that in mind we are in a unique position where we could give up a current #2 starter and more if Wren has that desire.
    Ideally that would be how you structure a trade like that. Sort of like the Justin Upton trade, where the main piece going the other way was an established major league player--Prado. That way you avoid mortgaging the future.

    I have my doubts though that the Rays would approach things in the same way the Diamondbacks did. It has more to do what what the other GM wants than what Wren has the desire to do. If they are open to it, a trade where Minor or Medlen was the main piece going back their way would be something worth looking at.

  6. The Following User Says Thank You to nsacpi For This Useful Post:

    weso1 (11-03-2013)

  7. #6
    Called Up to the Major Leagues
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,007
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    932
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    425
    Thanked in
    300 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by weso1 View Post
    It's a very legitimate point. I think the Braves should only get an Ace if they can do so without giving up too much. With that in mind we are in a unique position where we could give up a current #2 starter and more if Wren has that desire. That way we wouldn't have to give up too much of the future.
    Doubtful that anybody thinks that the Braves are going to flirt with somebody, who currently or will eventually cost $20 million. Other teams can pay that to Cliff Lee or Greinke. The Dodgers are one of the few teams that can afford it. The Phillies, although they certainly like having Lee, would probably prefer some salary relief with the WS door now closed on them.

    Was actually going to open up another thread to share this, but it works within the context of this one. This article appeared in the print edition of my hometown newspaper. It revisits the Dodgers-Red Sox trade.

    http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/in...d-sox-20131103

    But the Dodgers have already made it clear they’re not in the Robinson Cano sweepstakes because at some point, you can’t just spend-spend-spend because you’ll also spend millions in luxury taxes. The Red Sox needed to stay under the $178 million threshold to trigger the tax, just like the Yankees want to stay under $189 million for 2014 (and are thus desperate for Alex Rodriguez’s suspension to stand).

    With the big-money, low-character guys gone to Los Angeles, what did Cherington do? He spent the winter adding the likes of Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, Koji Uehara, Jonny Gomes, David Ross and Ryan Dempster. All except Dempster were Fall Classic heroes. Pretty amazing.

    Let’s not forget that Cherington got roasted, and perhaps deservedly so, for Victorino’s three-year, $39 million deal. But Cherington clearly wanted winning players. Victorino was on back-to-back World Series teams in Philadelphia. Gomes had been on three division champions, four playoff teams and a World Series team (the ‘08 Rays) in the last five years. Napoli had played in the postseason with Anaheim and Texas and would have been the ’11 Series MVP if not for the Rangers’ collapse in St. Louis. That matters.
    Being from a winning environment is about "intangibles." Character and winning attitude can't be measured. It's what separates them from losers, like Nick Swisher.

    Doubt really expects Wren to open up the bank vaults or back a truck of prospects up to make this "ace" acquisition. However, his responsibility is to improve the team. Some of the characteristics, he will be seeking is veteran starter, preferably having pitched in the post season. That's why it wouldn't suprise me if he inquires about Lohse again. He may have already had thoughts about Burnett, but it sounds as if it's Pittsburgh or retirement for him. These guys may not fit the exact description of "ace" but they would help to make the other pitchers better from less stress on the rotation from inexperience and lack of leadership.

  8. #7
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    The intangibles angle is an interesting one. I think it would be interesting to have a list of guys who are "winners" and one of the "losers", preferably ex-ante not ex-post.

    Let me start with a few I'm curious about.

    Josh Johnson--winner or loser? or unknown?

    Eric Chavez--winner or loser? or unknown?

    Eric O'Flaherty--winner or loser? or unknown?

    Tim Hudson--winner or loser? or unknown?

    Brian McCann--winner or loser? or unknown?

  9. #8
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,579
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    Braves are not going to need money to fill second base with TLS. They need to gamble on Johnson. At some point he should get back to being an ace and next year might very well be that year. Give him 1 year 10 million with a team option for another 10 million.
    Natural Immunity Croc

  10. #9
    Called Up to the Major Leagues
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    1,889
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    319
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    203
    Thanked in
    153 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Braves are not going to need money to fill second base with TLS. They need to gamble on Johnson. At some point he should get back to being an ace and next year might very well be that year. Give him 1 year 10 million with a team option for another 10 million.
    Im sure glad you are nowhere close to my piggy bank.

  11. #10
    Danville Rookie Teheran_49's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Lake Oconee
    Posts
    308
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    156
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    30
    Thanked in
    25 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Braves are not going to need money to fill second base with TLS. They need to gamble on Johnson. At some point he should get back to being an ace and next year might very well be that year. Give him 1 year 10 million with a team option for another 10 million.
    Josh Johnson is done. Him getting back to "Ace" status is as good as Santana's chance. I wouldn't mind gambling on Johnson as I do have some hope he can become a good SP again but not for 10/per.

  12. #11
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Johnson had some minor surgery on his elbow to clean up some bone chips I believe. If he was pitching with that last season, then maybe there is a chance he could rebound next season. The fact that his agent is looking for a one-year deal so he can rebuild his value is also an indication that he might be a good gamble. But I'm not sure if he is a winner or loser or something else.

  13. #12
    Clique Leader weso1's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    [Omitted]
    Posts
    6,694
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,295
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    3,056
    Thanked in
    1,708 Posts
    Just now realized this thread was meant for acesful
    thank you weso1!

  14. #13
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Braves are not going to need money to fill second base with TLS. They need to gamble on Johnson. At some point he should get back to being an ace and next year might very well be that year. Give him 1 year 10 million with a team option for another 10 million.
    I agree that JJ may be a good gamble, and is probably the most realistic chance the Braves have at acquiring an Ace from outside the organization. If Wren does go cheap at 2B then it makes sense to blow the rest of the 2014 budget on a pitcher with Ace upside.

    Realistically, JJ wouldn't have to make 30+ starts to be worth $10M to this team as it is currently constructed. He needs to be ready and full strength by October to make an impact in the playoffs. So baby him along during the regular season, and unleash him when it really counts.

  15. #14
    Brian Jordan's New BFF JohnAdcox's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Atlanta
    Posts
    1,124
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    13,990
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,045
    Thanked in
    459 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I agree that JJ may be a good gamble, and is probably the most realistic chance the Braves have at acquiring an Ace from outside the organization. If Wren does go cheap at 2B then it makes sense to blow the rest of the 2014 budget on a pitcher with Ace upside.

    Realistically, JJ wouldn't have to make 30+ starts to be worth $10M to this team as it is currently constructed. He needs to be ready and full strength by October to make an impact in the playoffs. So baby him along during the regular season, and unleash him when it really counts.
    When you say, "blow the rest of the 2014 budget," I assume you mean after some serious extensions?

  16. #15
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnAdcox View Post
    When you say, "blow the rest of the 2014 budget," I assume you mean after some serious extensions?
    Extensions aren't going to make the roster any more expensive in 2014 than going to year to year. Those contracts always pay estimates of the arbitration salaries and then also buy out 1-2 FA years. I can't even think of an example of a front loaded extension that pays a guy more during his arb years than he likely would have made anyways.

    If Wren goes cheap at 2B there will be money to burn for 2014. Might as well take a shot on someone like JJ on a 1 year deal. He is the type of pitcher that could win 2 games in a playoff series.

Similar Threads

  1. MiLB Pitcher Spin Rates
    By Enscheff in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 07-30-2019, 01:53 PM
  2. K and BB rates for our Pitchers
    By nsacpi in forum Extented Spring Training
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 10-01-2018, 11:26 AM
  3. April Strikeout Rates for Our Hitters
    By nsacpi in forum Pessimists
    Replies: 12
    Last Post: 05-22-2017, 06:49 AM
  4. Japan going to negative interest rates
    By sturg33 in forum LOCKER ROOM TALK
    Replies: 13
    Last Post: 02-05-2016, 11:13 PM
  5. Player Attrition
    By Tapate50 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 08-11-2014, 05:25 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •