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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    It should be mentioned that Kimbrell was a 3.3 win player in 2017. It hasn't been five years.

    his issue seems maybe to have been a lost of fastball command last year more than anything else. Overall, he just wasn't as good in the second half, but that's a fairly small sample for a reliever.
    1.2 and 1.5 before that. Seems that's more his baseline these days.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    1.2 and 1.5 before that. Seems that's more his baseline these days.
    yes...i think most teams are valuing him at about 1.5 WAR

    so let me ask of those who claim to be bullish on Kimbrel...what do you value him at...so far my question has been met with deafening silence
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I really don't think WAR properly values relievers. A couple of really bad outings can really tank your overall WAR.

    I do know the difference in a great closer and a bad closer can make a significant difference over the course of the year.
    so tell me what you value him at...2 WAR? 2.5 WAR?

    do you think his performance at the end of last year is affecting whether teams view him as a great closer
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    kimbrel is being screwed by the compensation pick problem. no one wants to sign him and give up that pick. he may have been smart to just take the QO. hindsight is 20/20, tho. i think it's possible to have had foresight on that, but that's besides the point. no one wants to pay him $15M for 2+ years while also losing a pick. he'd make every single team better. but at the combined cost, it's not worth it, IMO, for the braves to sign him for even, say, 1 year $13M.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    yes...i think most teams are valuing him at about 1.5 WAR

    so let me ask of those who claim to be bullish on Kimbrel...what do you value him at...so far my question has been met with deafening silence
    If kimbrel is effective dont you think it lessens the need to upgrade at midseason?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    last year's kimbrel was not one of the best closers ever.
    Not one of the best years for a closer ever. Just saying if you averaged out those numbers over the course of a career, it would still be elite production.

    Point being, he's still producing at an elite level, even if 2018 wasn't his usual best closer ever style of performance we're accustomed to seeing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    kimbrel is being screwed by the compensation pick problem. no one wants to sign him and give up that pick. he may have been smart to just take the QO. hindsight is 20/20, tho. i think it's possible to have had foresight on that, but that's besides the point. no one wants to pay him $15M for 2+ years while also losing a pick. he'd make every single team better. but at the combined cost, it's not worth it, IMO, for the braves to sign him for even, say, 1 year $13M.
    oh i think he has had offers for 15M for 2-3 years....that's not why he is still unsigned

    heck Zach Britton got 3 years at 13M AAV....Familia got 3 years at 10M AAV
    Last edited by nsacpi; 03-06-2019 at 10:16 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Not one of the best years for a closer ever. Just saying if you averaged out those numbers over the course of a career, it would still be elite production.

    Point being, he's still producing at an elite level, even if 2018 wasn't his usual best closer ever style of performance we're accustomed to seeing.
    he's performed at an elite level 1 of the last 4 seasons.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    If kimbrel is effective dont you think it lessens the need to upgrade at midseason?
    brilliant answer but it doesn't answer my question
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    he's performed at an elite level 1 of the last 4 seasons.
    Wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    oh i think he has had offers for 15M for 2-3 years....that's not why he is still unsigned

    heck Zach Britton got 3 years at 13M AAV....Familia got 3 years at 10M AAV
    they don't have QOs attached to them. i seemed to already forget how much britton got which is just..crazy to me. so he probably does have those offers. and if he has a 3/45 offer and isn't taking it? good luck craig.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Wrong.
    based on what
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    here's a study of the value of draft picks

    https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

    I think the reasonable market value for Kimbrel is that of a 1.5 win player...maybe a little more....17M if he is willing to do a 1 year deal, around 14-15M for a 3 year deal...I think that kind of deal is what has been available to him

    I think the data I've seen shows a expected surplus of something more like a half win for something like the 60th pick.

    Signing a player like Kimbrel expresses a certain intention. If that is your intention then the pick should not hold things up if you can get the cash right. The pick is really a quite modest value.

    But please don't make me into a Kimbrel advocate. While I do not have any real concerns about his value as a near elite closer, I do question whether it is the right move for the Braves. He would make them better, but the money would have to work.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    brilliant answer but it doesn't answer my question
    It kind of does since the answer to your question is obvious based on self imposed resource constraints.

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    Not to interject, but I think some of his issue last year was he discovered he was tipping pitches. I think that could be considered an outlier, but it doesn't change anything for me.

    His demands\cost (with the pick included, and our free $ available) won't mesh I don't believe.

    I think the pen will be a pleasant surprise this season.

    Losing that second round pick AND pool $ is definitely in this front offices mind.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I think the data I've seen shows a expected surplus of something more like a half win for something like the 60th pick.

    Signing a player like Kimbrel expresses a certain intention. If that is your intention then the pick should not hold things up if you can get the cash right. The pick is really a quite modest value.
    what data?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    Not to interject, but I think some of his issue last year was he discovered he was tipping pitches. I think that could be considered an outlier, but it doesn't change anything for me.

    His demands\cost (with the pick included, and our free $ available) won't mesh I don't believe.

    I think the pen will be a pleasant surprise this season.
    2017 looks like the outlier.
    walks were down and Ks were up.
    other recent years haven't been like that.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    they don't have QOs attached to them. i seemed to already forget how much britton got which is just..crazy to me. so he probably does have those offers. and if he has a 3/45 offer and isn't taking it? good luck craig.
    for sure...my point though is that Kimbrel very likely has had offers similar to or better than Britton's even accounting for the draft pick...he is not signed because he has declined those offers...so far...i think a team like the phillies will give him 15-16M for 3 years and give up the pick (which for them won't be a second round pick)...we should NOT be thinking about trying to compete with that or with the offers he likely has been sitting on for some time
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Signing a player like Kimbrel expresses a certain intention.
    It expresses something. But that something depends on the price.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    It kind of does since the answer to your question is obvious based on self imposed resource constraints.
    it evades my question...i've asked two questions in this discussion

    1) What do you value Kimbrel at

    2) What effect would signing Kimbrel have on our ability to make mid-season moves

    please feel free to answer either
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