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Thread: Craig Kimbrel For Braves Closer In 2019

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    I actually think his best spot is CF but that's another discussion for another day, but do agree.
    Unless he learns in the offseason how to read and take efficient routes in LF... I'd rather not see him play CF.

    Ender is fine there and Ender is cheap still.
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    I think we should keep Lucas Duda.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    If Justin Upton was signed for one less year I would try to target a guy like him. Someone that should get you ~3 WAR who makes decent coin so he won't have a huge trade value. Preferably someone with 2-3 years left. Not sure if that guy exists though.
    I you're willing to play on a horribly backloaded contract like J-Up's deal, why not just load up and bid on Harper?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    I actually think his best spot is CF but that's another discussion for another day, but do agree.
    I agree on the CF opinion. I've seen numbers back it up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    I you're willing to play on a horribly backloaded contract like J-Up's deal, why not just load up and bid on Harper?
    Well 2-3 years is a lot different than 10. And Harper is more hype than substance.

    The point is the Braves have a small window of payroll flexibility before our young kids hit late stage arbitration. We can afford a short term deal on a lot of dollars.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Hasnt been brought up and i think he'll probably be their Freeman but what would Salvador Perez cost?

    Signed through his age 29-31 seasons at 11, 14, 14 million. Royals really could use some pitching and really anything, not sure what Salvy would cost in a trade.
    i like this idea...i don't think it's impossible they deal him. i'm not sure what i'd offer, but he'd be an interesting target.
    i've also been saying this for a while but...wonder if we could get plawecki from the mets. no clue what his pitch framing is like tho.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Well 2-3 years is a lot different than 10. And Harper is more hype than substance.

    The point is the Braves have a small window of payroll flexibility before our young kids hit late stage arbitration. We can afford a short term deal on a lot of dollars.
    Yeah, this is right, I think. Definitely one way to approach it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Well 2-3 years is a lot different than 10. And Harper is more hype than substance.

    The point is the Braves have a small window of payroll flexibility before our young kids hit late stage arbitration. We can afford a short term deal on a lot of dollars.
    Which is the reason I could see a Kimbrel (or other Closer) signing and a Grandal or Moose/Donaldson addition to go along with bringing back Markakis (again, only if the terms are right) or another corner OF on a short-term deal.

    With ~ $50 million committed, adding $40-45 million worth of veterans that aren't going to be "front-line" free-agents (other than Kimbrel obviously) would still leave AA room for arbitration raises while addressing what holes may exist. Spending that kind of money on a closer would likely mean he would only be able to choose 2 of the 3 holes, but if you're convinced that Camargo/Riley will be good enough to assume 3B isn't really a need (and I am) then dropping that money on Grandal and Brantley/Jones/McCutchen makes sense - you'd upgrade 3 positions while avoiding long-term commitments, and do so without blocking anybody. You can dump Julio after next season to pay a big chunk of one of those salaries if need be, and Viz and Freeman will be gone as well so you'd really only be adding one salary in that range for the 2020 season.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

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    Bringing Markakis back on what it's likely to cost to bring him back would be utter folly. See Alex Gordon for your comp of a pretty decent OF who's stock in trade is clubhouse presence, good defense, a mid .700 OPS, and a good year leading into FA at 32 (Nick will be 35).

    Of course, Gordon may serve as an object lesson for the rest of baseball so instead of an AAV of $18M for 4 years, it might be an AAV of $14M for 3, but does Gordon look any better for that number? Would Markakis?

    There are lots of options out there that could give you what Markakis will likely give you at a fraction of the cost, if you look past the intangibile BS and focus only on performance. Smart teams don't pay for intangibles. Intangibles should differentiate between two equals. But, that's it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post

    There are lots of options out there that could give you what Markakis will likely give you at a fraction of the cost, if you look past the intangibile BS and focus only on performance. Smart teams don't pay for intangibles. Intangibles should differentiate between two equals. But, that's it.
    Who are these options?
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Who are these options?
    Depends on where you look.

    In FA, Matt Joyce is one. He's close to the same player as Nick but will get much less money and years. Nelson Cruz is older, probably will get more money per year but less years and can't play the field every day but is still a much better player. Leonys Martin is younger and likely to be better short term.

    If you're going to go 4+ years, then Pollock is probably your guy.

    If you don't go the FA route, then moving Acuna to RF and playing Camargo in left likely is a much better option than throwing an aging Markakis out there. Would mean having to play Culberson at 3B short term with Riley sliding in there.

    Or, you could make a 3B play for Donaldson (or Machado if he would play 3B) and move Camargo into the OF.

    Or you could make a trade for a young OF.

    Or you could pick up a guy who's still somewhat good but is shopped by another organization like Brett Garner from the Yankees if they sign Harper or Hicks (if they decide to go with Harper in Center short term and Florial long term with Harper moving over to replace Gardner). You might take a chance on Clint Frazier and buy low. Or make a play for David Dahl out of Colorado.

    There's all kinds of options. The point is, it's bad business to spend the kind of money it's likely to take to bring back a guy like Markakis, especially based on his best year in 10 years.
    Last edited by Horsehide Harry; 09-13-2018 at 01:56 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    i like this idea...i don't think it's impossible they deal him. i'm not sure what i'd offer, but he'd be an interesting target.
    i've also been saying this for a while but...wonder if we could get plawecki from the mets. no clue what his pitch framing is like tho.
    Enscheff can correct me if I'm off on this, but I see Perez's trade value breaking down like this. I'd project him for about 6-8 WAR over the next 3 seasons. Probably closer to 6. Something like 2.5, 2.0, 2.0. That is about 58.5 million in value if you go by the 1 WAR = 9 million model. He is owed 36 million in contract obligations over those 3 years so you are left with 22.5 million in surplus value. That in and of itself is pretty darn cheap and wouldn't cost us much in terms of prospects. But I do think there are some roadblocks. Firstly, he is one of the Royals best trade assets so they'd want maximum value. He also has a high value reputation around the league, being an all star 6 seasons in a row. So I think the Royals would over-value him significantly over the 22.5 million in actual surplus value that he is worth.

    If I had to guess, the Royals would probably be willing to eat a little bit of his contract, but they are going to want an significant overpay to move him. I would say something in the 40-50 million dollar range. I think maybe something like Bryse Wilson, Luiz Gohara, and Alex Jackson could maybe get pretty close to getting the deal done. I think that is a significant overpay, but I'd imagine that most people on the board would be okay with that price for Salvy. Not sure what I would think about it. It'd be a weird situation in my opinion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Depends on where you look.

    In FA, Matt Joyce is one. He's close to the same player as Nick but will get much less money and years. Nelson Cruz is older, probably will get more money per year but less years and can't play the field every day but is still a much better player. Leonys Martin is younger and likely to be better short term.

    If you're going to go 4+ years, then Pollock is probably your guy.

    If you don't go the FA route, then moving Acuna to RF and playing Camargo in left likely is a much better option than throwing an aging Markakis out there. Would mean having to play Culberson at 3B short term with Riley sliding in there.

    Or, you could make a 3B play for Donaldson (or Machado if he would play 3B) and move Camargo into the OF.

    Or you could make a trade for a young OF.

    Or you could pick up a guy who's still somewhat good but is shopped by another organization like Brett Garner from the Yankees if they sign Harper or Hicks (if they decide to go with Harper in Center short term and Florial long term with Harper moving over to replace Gardner). You might take a chance on Clint Frazier and buy low. Or make a play for David Dahl out of Colorado.

    There's all kinds of options. The point is, it's bad business to spend the kind of money it's likely to take to bring back a guy like Markakis, especially based on his best year in 10 years.
    This has been the option that I've been clamoring for and I think Eddie Rosario would be the perfect target. Cheap and controllable. He would cost something significant, but nothing earth shattering. And it would save us enough money to go out and fix our other holes with more significant upgrades. Rosario would be my dream scenario, but I'm not sure what direction the Twins want to go this offseason. They are kinda teetering in that dangerous middle ground of competing and rebuilding and I think they should probably commit to the latter while keeping their young core.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Enscheff can correct me if I'm off on this, but I see Perez's trade value breaking down like this. I'd project him for about 6-8 WAR over the next 3 seasons. Probably closer to 6. Something like 2.5, 2.0, 2.0. That is about 58.5 million in value if you go by the 1 WAR = 9 million model. He is owed 36 million in contract obligations over those 3 years so you are left with 22.5 million in surplus value. That in and of itself is pretty darn cheap and wouldn't cost us much in terms of prospects. But I do think there are some roadblocks. Firstly, he is one of the Royals best trade assets so they'd want maximum value. He also has a high value reputation around the league, being an all star 6 seasons in a row. So I think the Royals would over-value him significantly over the 22.5 million in actual surplus value that he is worth.

    If I had to guess, the Royals would probably be willing to eat a little bit of his contract, but they are going to want an significant overpay to move him. I would say something in the 40-50 million dollar range. I think maybe something like Bryse Wilson, Luiz Gohara, and Alex Jackson could maybe get pretty close to getting the deal done. I think that is a significant overpay, but I'd imagine that most people on the board would be okay with that price for Salvy. Not sure what I would think about it. It'd be a weird situation in my opinion.
    Yeah, no way I give up those 3 for him. I might deal one of the SPs and Jackson and that's it. Probably Gohara over Wilson.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    This has been the option that I've been clamoring for and I think Eddie Rosario would be the perfect target. Cheap and controllable. He would cost something significant, but nothing earth shattering. And it would save us enough money to go out and fix our other holes with more significant upgrades. Rosario would be my dream scenario, but I'm not sure what direction the Twins want to go this offseason. They are kinda teetering in that dangerous middle ground of competing and rebuilding and I think they should probably commit to the latter while keeping their young core.
    Rosario would be a good option. Maybe buy low on Domingo Santana of the Brewers.

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    The thing on Kimbrell is that if the Red Sox don't pay what it takes to keep him, then other teams probably don't want him. They see him every day. They have the money to keep him and are less concerned about catastrophic mistakes because of their financial might. If they aren't willing to go the 5 years $75M to keep him, someone else going 4 Years $65M probably isn't a good idea.

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    i'm sure the mariners don't realize they aren't actually good but i'd love to get haniger.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    If I had to guess, the Royals would probably be willing to eat a little bit of his contract, but they are going to want an significant overpay to move him. I would say something in the 40-50 million dollar range. I think maybe something like Bryse Wilson, Luiz Gohara, and Alex Jackson could maybe get pretty close to getting the deal done. I think that is a significant overpay, but I'd imagine that most people on the board would be okay with that price for Salvy. Not sure what I would think about it. It'd be a weird situation in my opinion.

    Hard pass. Bad framer. Doesn't get on base. Already has knee trouble cropping up. His salary isn't particularly cheap.

    you could do worse at catcher, but no way I'd overpay in prospects.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    This has been the option that I've been clamoring for and I think Eddie Rosario would be the perfect target. Cheap and controllable. He would cost something significant, but nothing earth shattering. And it would save us enough money to go out and fix our other holes with more significant upgrades. Rosario would be my dream scenario, but I'm not sure what direction the Twins want to go this offseason. They are kinda teetering in that dangerous middle ground of competing and rebuilding and I think they should probably commit to the latter while keeping their young core.
    Rosario is a good option. Other young outfielders to consider trading for include Happ, Kepler, Joc Pederson. David Peralta is a little older but would have two years to go before free agency.

    There are options out there. But whether they are superior to Markakis depends on price. The price for someone like Rosario might be along the lines of Soroka or Folty. Probably Soroka plus given the uncertainties about his shoulder. If you look at Rosario's WAR numbers they are similar to Folty's. So a trade of those two would be close to fair. Both would have 3 years of contractual control left.

    We shouldn't fool ourselves that there are better cheaper options out there. There are good options out there that will not be cheap. There are some cheap options like Mike Joyce. But he is a replacement level player, who really is not a full-time player.
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    Hopefully the Braves are smart enough not to spend $80M on a BP arm, realize they have cheap options at 3B, and spend the bulk of their resources at cOF and C.

    Many of the ideas thrown around here are...silly, to put it nicely.

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