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Thread: Minors 8-18-19

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    Quote Originally Posted by OcalaBrave View Post
    Waters 3-4 today. 6 multi hit games in first 12 inAAA

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    Quote Originally Posted by IslandBrave View Post
    Waters 3-4 today. 6 multi hit games in first 12 inAAA
    next Ortega?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    next Ortega?
    Acuna
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Quote Originally Posted by IslandBrave View Post
    Waters 3-4 today. 6 multi hit games in first 12 inAAA
    Unsustainable luck driven BABIP at 4 minor league levels now.
    Go get him!

    Founding member of the Whiny Little Bitches and Pricks Club

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    Unsustainable luck driven BABIP at 4 minor league levels now.
    Not sure what your point t is here. Do you think he’s going to have an mlb record career Babip?

    If not what’s the point of the sarcasm? You just feel like receiving posts intended to make you look dumb when it normalizes to something remotely sustainable at the next level?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Not sure what your point t is here. Do you think he’s going to have an mlb record career Babip?

    If not what’s the point of the sarcasm? You just feel like receiving posts intended to make you look dumb when it normalizes to something remotely sustainable at the next level?
    Levity. Levity was the point of the sarcasm. I guess I don't take whatever point system we have here as seriously as some others do.

    I do not expect him to have an MLB record career BABIP. I also don't think it's luck. I think it's a kid who hits the ball hard when he makes contact, and will always have a high BABIP. And he misses the ball too much.
    Go get him!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    Levity. Levity was the point of the sarcasm. I guess I don't take whatever point system we have here as seriously as some others do.

    I do not expect him to have an MLB record career BABIP. I also don't think it's luck. I think it's a kid who hits the ball hard when he makes contact, and will always have a high BABIP. And he misses the ball too much.
    I was wondering if you were tanking for a high draft pick or something.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    I was wondering if you were tanking for a high draft pick or something.
    Do you think we're actually going to get draft picks here? If not, what's the point of the sarcasm?









    Once again, levity.
    Go get him!

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    The point to make about Waters is that he has been lucky and good. The hard part is parsing how much is luck and how much is skill that can eventually translate at the major league level.

    Here's an article that breaks down the BABIP numbers of another young player who has been both lucky and good this year (at the major league level in his case).

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bryan-re...ucky-and-good/
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The point to make about Waters is that he has been lucky and good. The hard part is parsing how much is luck and how much is skill that can eventually translate at the major league level.

    Here's an article that breaks down the BABIP numbers of another young player who has been both lucky and good this year (at the major league level in his case).

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bryan-re...ucky-and-good/
    Is there any correlation to babip and spray charts? Here's waters' spray charts for A, A+, AA, and AAA:
    (Left, center, right)
    A = 43.6, 21.4, 35.0
    A+ = 39.6, 23.1, 37.4
    AA = 43.2, 22.3, 34.6
    AAA = 46.4, 21.4, 32.1

    He is a switch though, so this could just be him pulling the hell out of everything on that side. Just looking at a stat line though, it seems impressive

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Is there any correlation to babip and spray charts? Here's waters' spray charts for A, A+, AA, and AAA:
    (Left, center, right)
    A = 43.6, 21.4, 35.0
    A+ = 39.6, 23.1, 37.4
    AA = 43.2, 22.3, 34.6
    AAA = 46.4, 21.4, 32.1

    He is a switch though, so this could just be him pulling the hell out of everything on that side. Just looking at a stat line though, it seems impressive
    Having a low pull rate helps produce a higher BABIP.

    Are you sure you have the data in your post labelled correctly. The 46.4 in AAA is his pull rate according to Fangraphs. Which is not the same as % hit to left since he is a switch hitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Having a low pull rate helps produce a higher BABIP.

    Are you sure you have the data in your post labelled correctly. The 46.4 in AAA is his pull rate according to Fangraphs. Which is not the same as % hit to left since he is a switch hitter.
    Stop listening to me! I'm a dope! Yes, you're correct. This actually is what I was hoping for though... using all fields

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Stop listening to me! I'm a dope! Yes, you're correct. This actually is what I was hoping for though... using all fields
    Its worth comparing Waters with Bryan Reynolds. Both are switch hitters.

    Looking at their AA stats: Waters had a pull rate in AA this year of 43.2%. Reynolds was at 45.1%.

    What is exceptional about Reynolds though is how the pull rate has dropped to 34.8% in the majors this year.
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    Waters is pretty young and hasn't really been challenged a great deal.

    But I think he has the lowest minors walk rate of any the Braves position prospects and his K rate is higher than everyone except Riley.

    If that doesn't change, the 100 point drop in BABIP is going to do really bad things to his stat line.

    not to say he can't come up and have a good start like they virtually all have had. It's just fairly certain he's going to have an ugly struggle at some point and it's very possible he starts out that way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Waters is pretty young and hasn't really been challenged a great deal.

    But I think he has the lowest minors walk rate of any the Braves position prospects and his K rate is higher than everyone except Riley.

    If that doesn't change, the 100 point drop in BABIP is going to do really bad things to his stat line.

    not to say he can't come up and have a good start like they virtually all have had. It's just fairly certain he's going to have an ugly struggle at some point and it's very possible he starts out that way.
    The K rate is definitely problematic. I'd like him to have 400 PAs in AAA with a K rate of under 25% before calling him up.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The point to make about Waters is that he has been lucky and good. The hard part is parsing how much is luck and how much is skill that can eventually translate at the major league level.

    Here's an article that breaks down the BABIP numbers of another young player who has been both lucky and good this year (at the major league level in his case).

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bryan-re...ucky-and-good/
    The problem there is that Reynolds also has pretty good K and BB rates. Waters K rate is well above 30 and his BB rate is around 4-5... when you add that to an insane BABIP, it’s not going to be pretty in the majors

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    The problem there is that Reynolds also has pretty good K and BB rates. Waters K rate is well above 30 and his BB rate is around 4-5... when you add that to an insane BABIP, it’s not going to be pretty in the majors
    Probably at least worth mentioning that Reynolds started his pro career at like the same age waters is right now

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    The problem there is that Reynolds also has pretty good K and BB rates. Waters K rate is well above 30 and his BB rate is around 4-5... when you add that to an insane BABIP, it’s not going to be pretty in the majors
    The AAA K rate is from a pretty small sample. Look at his AA numbers.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The AAA K rate is from a pretty small sample. Look at his AA numbers.
    Yeah the mid 20s are still concerning with his walk rate. Hopefully when things get harder for him he starts to adjust. We won’t know until he gets challenged. Right now he probably has the mind set of hitting everything since it’s easy for him at the moment. Why walk when it’s easy?

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