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Thread: Early look at the 2018 payroll

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    Early look at the 2018 payroll

    Here is what the 2018 roster would likely look like if no players changed teams (with half-assed arbitration estimates included):

    1 C Flowers $4.00
    2 1B Freeman $21.00
    3 2B Albies $0.55
    4 3B Ruiz $0.55
    5 SS Swanson $0.55
    6 LF Kemp $19.25
    7 CF Inciarte $4.70
    8 RF Markakis $11.00

    9 SP1 Teheran $8.00
    10 SP2 Folty $4.00
    11 SP3 Dickey $8.00
    12 SP4 Newk $0.55
    13 SP5 Fried $0.55

    14 BN1 M Adams $4.00
    15 BN2 Camargo $0.55
    16 BN3 Santana $1.00
    17 BN4 L Adams $0.55
    18 BN5 Sanchez $0.55

    19 BP1 JJ $5.00
    20 BP2 Viz $3.00
    21 BP3 Freeman $0.55
    22 BP4 Ramirez $0.55
    23 BP5 Minter $0.55
    24 BP6 Winkler $1.00
    25 BP7 Wisler $0.55

    Total $100.55

    Cot's had the Braves 2017 opening day payroll at $122M, which I'm pretty sure did not include the $2.5M per year the Braves are getting from LA/SD. We can probably estimate the Braves will have a 2018 opening day payroll of about $125M...quite possibly less.

    So how do the Braves improve that roster with $25M?

    The most any team is likely to assume for Kemp is $10M per year. The Braves can probably give Markakis away and save $11M. They could also decline Dickey's option and save another $7.5M.

    That leaves the Braves in a best case scenario with ~$53.5M to spend. With that cash, the Braves will need at least 1 SP, and at least one corner OF to play alongside Inciarte and Acuna. To have any chance at .500, the Braves will also need a 2nd SP, and an upgrade at 3B.

    I would actually suggest the Braves largely leave the roster unchanged going into 2018. The Braves aren't going to be good no matter what, so there is no sense in shackling themselves to another bad contract.

    Maybe ditch Dickey and upgrade that spot in the rotation with a FA on a 1-2 year deal, but for most part let the young SPs prove whether they belong in the rotation. Take a look at what Ruiz and Camargo can do at 3B. Try to unload Kemp or Markakis, but don't go crazy trying to shed those contracts. See if Lane Adams is the solution to the 4th OFer question. Try to extend Flowers 1-2 years, even if that means giving him a raise in 2018. Sign an actual backup catcher.

    Then start replacing crappy guys with younger guys. Newk or Fried replaced with Gohara. Kemp or Markakis replaced with Acuna. Later, Newk or Fried replaced with Allard/Soroka/Wright.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 09-11-2017 at 05:36 PM.

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    I would load up on the bullpen and let the young pitchers have a full season in the rotation. My rotation would be Teheran/Folty/Newk/Fried/Gohara. Leave Allard/Soroka in AAA while Wright gets half a season in AA at the least.

    Sign Addison Reed and either make him the closer or the 8th inning guy. I don't care if its 3 years 30 a guy like Reed could probably net a good prospect when a contender is willing to pay a premium. On top of that I would sign Jake McGee. Roll with a pen of Viz/Reed/Ramirez/McGee/Minter/Freeman and then have a guy like Sims as the long man. This will provide a nice security blanket for the starters and inflate our win totals as we won't give up as many runs in the late innings.

    I like the idea of dumping Kemp if possible to an AL team. If we were able to do that I would platoon Markakis and Adams. Adams has earned a chance to at leaset play in a platoon role and I still think Nick brings value at the plate so I would prefer to keep him around another season.

    DO NOT SIGN A THIRD BASEMAN. I am not sure what Camargo has to do to 'earn' a spot but it makes no sense to not give him that opportunity. Worst case scenario is he is a util player and you lost out on wins in a season where you weren't going to win a WS. Best case scenario is that he is a 3 WAR player (good defense and improved power) and then all of a sudden you have a choice to add him to a deal and get great value.

    Put the money in the coffers for the upcoming season if Liberty allows that.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I like the idea of dumping Kemp if possible to an AL team.
    That'd obviously be their intention with Acuna ready. Thing is, are there AL teams that have expressed interest?

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    I'll start with my premise that we are bad. I don't think we should sign a free agent. I think we should play young guys and look for 19. The team will be plenty fun with the young guys.

    I would pay flowers 10 million next year if I can get 2-3 cheap team option years.
    I keep neck and pay him. If someone wants him then great.
    Kemp I'd dump if I can eat less than 30 million without including talent. Wisler and Blair do not count as talent.

    Albies
    Ff
    Kemp/neck
    Acuna......flip based on kemp or neck playing for righty lefty
    Inciarte
    Flowers
    Comargo/Ruiz
    Swanson
    P

    Tehran
    Folty
    Dickey
    Neck
    Gohara
    When soroka, wright, allard or ready move dickey or put him in pen

    Jj
    Viz
    Minter
    Wisler
    Etc

    Keep my powder dry for the next free agent class. We prob can't play for the big guys but keep open your money and maybe you can steal a lesser guy. 2018 we should be able to have a very cheap rotation that is decent.

    Coppy won't do it. But I'd love to see the defense first results of that infield. Love to see the defense of inciarte plus Acuna. A couple high upside bats to go with ff.

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    I think to move Kemp you have to find an interested AL Team in need of a DH with the payroll to pay him. The Twins would be a fit but they don't have the payroll space. Maybe a deal where the Braves take back Phil Hughes whose currently undergoing his second Thoracic Outlet surgery.

    Maybe the Blue Jays where they will be losing Bautista. IDK, maybe a Kemp for Troy Tulowitzki with TT playing 3B for the Braves. They make similar money through 2019 but Tulo is signed for $14M in 2020 and has a 2021 option with $4M buyout. So, maybe you get a prospect to even things out OR you expand the deal a bit and go Kemp, Teheran and Comargo for Tulo, Alford & Pentecost.

    Maybe Cleveland but the Braves would have to eat some money and get nothing back (Santana is a FA).

    The Royals would probably take him but only if Braves send talent and/or cash.

    Maybe Kemp to Detroit for Zimmerman, Sanchez (says $5M buyout) and Kinsler (saves $5M buyout). ZImmerman and Sanchez in the rotation, Kinsler at 3B for a year.

    Maybe Boston if your willing to take back another as bad or worse contract: Kemp for David Price, 3B Michael Chavis, C Daniel Flores.

    Maybe the Yankees: Kemp & Inciarte for Ellsbury, Headley, Clint Frazier, Florial and Andujar (depending on if the Yanks go after Stannton and sign Moustakas).

    So in other words it's pretty unlikely the Braves CAN move Kemp.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    I think to move Kemp you have to find an interested AL Team in need of a DH with the payroll to pay him. The Twins would be a fit but they don't have the payroll space. Maybe a deal where the Braves take back Phil Hughes whose currently undergoing his second Thoracic Outlet surgery.

    Maybe the Blue Jays where they will be losing Bautista. IDK, maybe a Kemp for Troy Tulowitzki with TT playing 3B for the Braves. They make similar money through 2019 but Tulo is signed for $14M in 2020 and has a 2021 option with $4M buyout. So, maybe you get a prospect to even things out OR you expand the deal a bit and go Kemp, Teheran and Comargo for Tulo, Alford & Pentecost.

    Maybe Cleveland but the Braves would have to eat some money and get nothing back (Santana is a FA).

    The Royals would probably take him but only if Braves send talent and/or cash.

    Maybe Kemp to Detroit for Zimmerman, Sanchez (says $5M buyout) and Kinsler (saves $5M buyout). ZImmerman and Sanchez in the rotation, Kinsler at 3B for a year.

    Maybe Boston if your willing to take back another as bad or worse contract: Kemp for David Price, 3B Michael Chavis, C Daniel Flores.

    Maybe the Yankees: Kemp & Inciarte for Ellsbury, Headley, Clint Frazier, Florial and Andujar (depending on if the Yanks go after Stannton and sign Moustakas).

    So in other words it's pretty unlikely the Braves CAN move Kemp.
    The only team dumb enough to take him the first time was the Braves

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    Kemp hits HRs, and there are enough stone aged thinkers in the FO who think that makes him a legit 4 hitter that he's not going anywhere.

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    I think the main priorities this off-season should be a starting pitcher and a backup catcher. This will consume 15-20M of budget.

    I would allow our internal candidates (Camargo, Ruiz) to have at least the first half of 2018 to show what they can do at third.
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    I've been on-board with the idea of a Kemp for Tulo swap since it was brought up last off-season and still believe this would benefit both teams. This all would hinge on Tulo being open to moving to 3b, but lets face it, he's known he wouldn't be able to play SS for his entire career. I think it would benefit him and his numbers for two main reasons: 1.) 3b is naturally going to be easier on his body and 2.) moving off the turf in the Rogers Center and on to natural grass at STP would have to increase his ability to stay on the field. So let's say Troy is willing to move to 3b and Toronto has interest in Kemp, what is a fair deal? Without looking up stats and W.A.R and .etc something along these lines seems to be fair in my eyes (off the top of my head):

    Toronto receives:

    Matt Kemp- OF/DH
    Matt Wisler- RHP
    Jim Johnson- RHP (helps offset $$$)


    Atlanta receives:

    Troy Tulowitzki- 3B/SS


    To me these are the following reasons this trade makes sense for us...

    1.) This gives us a viable 3B option until Riley/Ruiz/Demeritte/Maitian proves they are ready for that role.
    2.) Clears a path for Acuna
    3.) Still gives Freeman some "protection"
    4.) Allows Camargo to become a super utility player in the Ben Zobrist mold
    5.) Clears two extra spots on the 40-man roster
    6.) If all else fails, Tulo should be easier to trade than Kemp has been/would be

    Again, don't have the time right now to look in-depth at the total value of the deal from a $/win standpoint but this is just something off the top of my head that could help both teams. Could also add someone like Adonis Garcia/Jace Peterson or Ian Krol/Luke Jackson/Jason Hursh type player to "sweeten the pot" if need be (although some may argue a few of these may lessen the value).
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    Quote Originally Posted by blueagleace1 View Post
    I've been on-board with the idea of a Kemp for Tulo swap since it was brought up last off-season and still believe this would benefit both teams. This all would hinge on Tulo being open to moving to 3b, but lets face it, he's known he wouldn't be able to play SS for his entire career. I think it would benefit him and his numbers for two main reasons: 1.) 3b is naturally going to be easier on his body and 2.) moving off the turf in the Rogers Center and on to natural grass at STP would have to increase his ability to stay on the field. So let's say Troy is willing to move to 3b and Toronto has interest in Kemp, what is a fair deal? Without looking up stats and W.A.R and .etc something along these lines seems to be fair in my eyes (off the top of my head):

    Toronto receives:

    Matt Kemp- OF/DH
    Matt Wisler- RHP
    Jim Johnson- RHP (helps offset $$$)


    Atlanta receives:

    Troy Tulowitzki- 3B/SS


    To me these are the following reasons this trade makes sense for us...

    1.) This gives us a viable 3B option until Riley/Ruiz/Demeritte/Maitian proves they are ready for that role.
    2.) Clears a path for Acuna
    3.) Still gives Freeman some "protection"
    4.) Allows Camargo to become a super utility player in the Ben Zobrist mold
    5.) Clears two extra spots on the 40-man roster
    6.) If all else fails, Tulo should be easier to trade than Kemp has been/would be

    Again, don't have the time right now to look in-depth at the total value of the deal from a $/win standpoint but this is just something off the top of my head that could help both teams. Could also add someone like Adonis Garcia/Jace Peterson or Ian Krol/Luke Jackson/Jason Hursh type player to "sweeten the pot" if need be (although some may argue a few of these may lessen the value).
    There's absolutely no situation where acquiring Troy Tulowitzki and a contract that's far worse than Kemp's makes ANY sense for the Braves. Tulo already produces less than Camargo and/or Ruiz, can't possibly be expected to play more than 120 games, and taking on his deal would be worse than extending Kemp through 2020 with an option and hoping the DH comes to the NL.

    If you can't find someone willing to take Markakis or Kemp on (even if we paid down some of the money), Acuna simply has to wait his turn. You're already within 6 months of the point that the brass has already shown they're willing to just pay people to go away - Bourn and Swisher - and everybody here screams every time someone's called up to begin with. Just have the talk with Markakis this winter and let him know that no matter how well he may or may not be playing, he's going to be a pinch-hitter or somewhere else come July.

    There's no way on earth that Tulo is easier to trade than either of the old guys - don't make the mistake of extending the amount of time with dead money on the books. If you're willing to pay Tulo's contract, bite the bullet and go out and sign an actual baseball player like Moustakas or Zack Cozart to play 3B.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

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    I think there's a chance Kemp is traded, but it's more likely Markakis is. I also think Adams is traded. The Dickey option can go either way. Making a 7.5M decision on a guy who is going to give you quality innings and decent production for a #5 should be an easy call, but it definitely limits the opportunities to upgrade the staff. I don't think any of Julio/Folty/Newk are at the point where their trade value is optimal. That only leaves one spot open. I don't thnk any of the rookies get a spot in the rotation. That spot will go to a veteran and the rookies will stay in AAA to start the season.

    So, I think we'll have 40-50M to spend if we're guessing $125 or $130 Million and starting off with 85M. 100-11 (Nick) -4 (Adams)

    How do we spend that money? What we don't know is how much rollover we have. If Liberty is wanting to see more action at the gate they may be forcing us to spend. They may allow us to rollover what we do not use in to next offseason. We'll never know that for sure.

    I think we'll spend the money. As much as we may know "names" don't equal production, they do help in marketing and at the gate. I don't think we can do the mirage we did last year by only getting guys on 1 year deals to flip in July. We're far enough along where the fans may not accept that dog and pony show again, not internet fans the fans who go to the games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    I think there's a chance Kemp is traded, but it's more likely Markakis is. I also think Adams is traded. The Dickey option can go either way. Making a 7.5M decision on a guy who is going to give you quality innings and decent production for a #5 should be an easy call, but it definitely limits the opportunities to upgrade the staff. I don't think any of Julio/Folty/Newk are at the point where their trade value is optimal. That only leaves one spot open. I don't thnk any of the rookies get a spot in the rotation. That spot will go to a veteran and the rookies will stay in AAA to start the season.

    So, I think we'll have 40-50M to spend if we're guessing $125 or $130 Million and starting off with 85M. 100-11 (Nick) -4 (Adams)

    How do we spend that money? What we don't know is how much rollover we have. If Liberty is wanting to see more action at the gate they may be forcing us to spend. They may allow us to rollover what we do not use in to next offseason. We'll never know that for sure.

    I think we'll spend the money. As much as we may know "names" don't equal production, they do help in marketing and at the gate. I don't think we can do the mirage we did last year by only getting guys on 1 year deals to flip in July. We're far enough along where the fans may not accept that dog and pony show again, not internet fans the fans who go to the games.
    I think we'll hold on to Dickey and sign someone like Lynn/Cobb/Garcia to fill out the rotation. I'm all for giving Ruiz/Camargo an extended look at third in 2018.

    I'm hoping we do NOT trade Kemp or Markakis. My reasoning here is a little convoluted. But if we hold on to both we are more likely to send Acuna to AAA for a few weeks, which would give us an extra year of contractual control before he hits free agency.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-12-2017 at 10:37 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    But if we hold on to both we are more likely to send Acuna to AAA for a few weeks, which would give us an extra year of contractual control before he hits free agency.
    Not doing so would be a colossal mistake, IMO.

    Unless we acquire somebody for those spots, there's no overwhelming baseball reason to move them (both of them, anyway). We just want shiny new stuff, which is understandable, I suppose.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think we'll hold on to Dickey and sign someone like Lynn/Cobb/Garcia to fill out the rotation. I'm all for giving Ruiz/Camargo an extended look at third in 2018.

    I'm hoping we do NOT trade Kemp or Markakis. My reasoning here is a little convoluted. But if we hold on to both we are more likely to send Acuna to AAA for a few weeks, which would give us an extra year of contractual control before he hits free agency.
    I'm thinking we may pick up Dickey's option and fill with another vet as well. That vet is most likely Cobb as of now as he'll be the only one who is ure to not have a QO besides Yu Darvish. The Cardinals may shock some and offer Lynn a QO.

    It's a possibility that we hold on to Nick and Kemp and keep Acuna down for a bit and spin it that we could not trade either of them and did not want Acuna wasting on the bench. Then we miracuously find a trade partner and promote Acuna.

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    I just believe Tulo could go back to producing an OPS+ of ~125 after he gets off the turf and can settle in at 3B. If he were to do that then he would be much cheaper than Moose for similar production.

    Maybe I'm wrong. That has been known to be true. I'm all for admitting I was wrong if someone can prove me wrong...
    "Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon"

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    Lynn is probably going to sign for something like 5/90.

    Cobb will likely get at least 3/50.

    These are not deals the Braves need to be signing as they get ready for a 75-80 win season.

    The Braves are on the exact some position on the win curve as last offseason, but now they have much more talented young SPs in Fried and Newk who need to be given a shot to sink or swim. If they acquire another SP, expect it to be a Colon/Dicky/Garcia type of acquisition.

    Or...the FO knows they are about to lose their jobs, and they go all in this offseason to save them. Under that scenario they trade away young pitching for established guys, still miss the playoffs, and short circuit the rebuild before it ever takes off. And they still lose their jobs.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 09-12-2017 at 11:41 AM.

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    NL Rookie of the Year dak's Avatar
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    The one spot where I see a definite need that can't be filled internally would be a Catcher to pair with Flowers. Another move I see as pretty straightforward is picking up Dickey's option. He's an innings-eater and leader for $8m that provides ~2 WAR value when you consider that he has consistently outperformed his FIP by around a half run since transitioning to the knuckleball.

    Beyond that, we face a myriad of decisions on whether to upgrade or go with internal options at the following positions: 3B, LF, RF, SP, LH Relief, RH Relief. Personally, I would definitely add a veteran SP and a veteran LH setup guy, but I could see a reasonable argument to stand pat there and pursue other upgrades. As far as 3B / RF / LF, I think all options need to be on table (stand pat, upgrade via FA, upgrade via trade) and it will be critical for us to game out how we can maximize these positions collectively.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dak View Post
    The one spot where I see a definite need that can't be filled internally would be a Catcher to pair with Flowers. Another move I see as pretty straightforward is picking up Dickey's option. He's an innings-eater and leader for $8m that provides ~2 WAR value when you consider that he has consistently outperformed his FIP by around a half run since transitioning to the knuckleball.

    Beyond that, we face a myriad of decisions on whether to upgrade or go with internal options at the following positions: 3B, LF, RF, SP, LH Relief, RH Relief. Personally, I would definitely add a veteran SP and a veteran LH setup guy, but I could see a reasonable argument to stand pat there and pursue other upgrades. As far as 3B / RF / LF, I think all options need to be on table (stand pat, upgrade via FA, upgrade via trade) and it will be critical for us to game out how we can maximize these positions collectively.
    I suspect the new catcher picked up for Phillips will get a shot to be the backup. He has been that before for three years with the Pirates. I suspect he would at least serviceable there if a ready upgrade does not emerge.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blueagleace1 View Post
    I just believe Tulo could go back to producing an OPS+ of ~125 after he gets off the turf and can settle in at 3B. If he were to do that then he would be much cheaper than Moose for similar production.

    Maybe I'm wrong. That has been known to be true. I'm all for admitting I was wrong if someone can prove me wrong...
    I could see it with Tulo, but he's always had health issues and for what it's worth he's been vocal about not wanting to move off of SS. He's going to have to though.

    Moose will get a QO and the way we've viewed draft picks under this regime I cannot see us giving up a pick for him.

    If we went out of the organization for 3B I'd predict Frazier or Neil Walker in FA or Gyorko or Lowrie via trade. My preference would be Neil Walker if he's up for playing 3B.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blueagleace1 View Post
    I just believe Tulo could go back to producing an OPS+ of ~125 after he gets off the turf and can settle in at 3B. If he were to do that then he would be much cheaper than Moose for similar production.

    Maybe I'm wrong. That has been known to be true. I'm all for admitting I was wrong if someone can prove me wrong...
    He's never been able to stay healthy, his abilities have diminished, and you'd be taking on more guaranteed years, which is the opposite way the braves should be going.

    I don't like that one. Only reason to take on a bad contract is if there is a r asonable expectation that it will help you at a position of need without being a long term disaster...or if you are getting something great in compensation and aren't torpedoing the future payroll.

    It's why Verlander would have made some sense for Atlanta (but not anyone else probably). Good chance he addresses need, the exposure wasn't too long to his flaming out.

    Tulo seems like a really bad bet.

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