Could Albies be a consistent .900 ops hitter?

[Slippyjms]

I'm asking because I took a look at his current stats. Before tonight he was hitting .272/.352/.450 so he has around a 70 point BA/OBP delta. If we raised his average to .300 with just singles his ops starts to get close. I don't get to see many games so my questions are does he have the hitting profile to consitantly hit .300? Does he have the ability to maintain his current delta? And does he have the power to make up the extra ground?

[clvclv]

No. But somebody will find a way to make the numbers say he can.

[msstate7]

No. But somebody will find a way to make the numbers say he can.

THEre is no way a posTer HEre would claim that

[Enscheff]

In short, no. Albies hits too many fly balls, and doesn't hit them with a high enough exit velocity to consistently produce a ~.900 OPS.

Albies currently hits 16.8/40.1/43.1 LD/GB/FB. Using the splits leader boards, we can find all players with a similar batted ball profile this year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leadersspli...sort=22,1&pg=0

There are 16 names on that list, and Albies has the 2nd highest BA of .272, behind only Nelson Cruz at .286. Quite simply, that isn't a batted ball profile that lends itself to a very high BA.

Albies' average exit velocity is 86.7 MPH (ranked 223 out of 376 hitters with 100+ ABs this season). His average exit velocity on fly balls is 88.9 MPH (#229 out of 280 players who have hit 40+ fly balls this year). He has well below average power.

For reference, here is the average fly ball exit velocity of the Top 5 on the list above when ranked by BA:

Cruz - 96.9 (#6)
Donaldson - 96.1 (#13)
Machado - 94.3 (#43)
Betts - 89.4 (#216)
Dozier - 94.7 (#32)

I think you get the picture. Albies hits too many fly balls considering how hard he hits them, period.

But....look at Betts. Similar batted ball profile, similar exit velocities. How good is Betts offensively?

Betts posted a .318/.363/.534 (.897 OPS) line in 2016, and a .263/.343/.456 (.798 OPS) line this season.

He seems like a very similar hitter. Fast. BB rate in 7%-10% range. Biggest difference is Betts' K rate sits in the low-teens, while it looks like Albies will sit in the mid-teens.

What kind of hitter is "Betts with 3% more Ks"? Look no further than Betts' 2014 season when he posted a .291/.368/.444 (.812 OPS) line with a very similar K rate, BB rate and batted ball profile to Albies. Coincidentally, it matches pretty well to Albies' current line of .272/.352/.450 (.802 OPS).

So yeah, I would call Albies "Betts with a few more K's". That isn't a consistent .900 OPS guy, but that is a consistent .800-.850 OPS guy that will improve incrementally as his K and fly ball rates drop. Combine that with plus defense at 2B and plus base running, and the Braves have themselves a legit 4+ WAR player as soon as next year.

I project Albies to be the 2nd most valuable player on the Braves roster next year behind Freeman.

[weso1]

I'm asking because I took a look at his current stats. Before tonight he was hitting .272/.352/.450 so he has around a 70 point BA/OBP delta. If we raised his average to .300 with just singles his ops starts to get close. I don't get to see many games so my questions are does he have the hitting profile to consitantly hit .300? Does he have the ability to maintain his current delta? And does he have the power to make up the extra ground?

Roberto Alomar had an OPS greater than or equal to .900 four times in his career. Ryan Sandberg had an OPS above .900 once in his career. Jose Altuve has done it exactly two times in his career thus far. We need to lower the bar a bit for Albies. I think he's going to be a good player, but if he is a consistent .900 OPS hitter then you're talking about the best 2B of all time by a hilarious margin.

[jpx7]

Roberto Alomar had an OPS greater than or equal to .900 four times in his career. Ryan Sandberg had an OPS above .900 once in his career. Jose Altuve has done it exactly two times in his career thus far. We need to lower the bar a bit for Albies. I think he's going to be a good player, but if he is a consistent .900 OPS hitter then you're talking about the best 2B of all time by a hilarious margin.

Cano's done .900+ twice, but been damn close another four times—so yea, that's a tough task for Albies.

But even he did it, nobody's catching Hornsby (career 1.010 OPS), much less beating him "by a hilarious margin".

[Jaw]

Roberto Alomar had an OPS greater than or equal to .900 four times in his career. Ryan Sandberg had an OPS above .900 once in his career. Jose Altuve has done it exactly two times in his career thus far. We need to lower the bar a bit for Albies. I think he's going to be a good player, but if he is a consistent .900 OPS hitter then you're talking about the best 2B of all time by a hilarious margin.

So you're saying there's a chance?

[nsacpi]

Two things are likely to happen as Albies moves into his prime years. The strikeout rate will come down some. And the power will increase. The question on both is how fast and how much. I do think he will have at least one season with an OPS north of .900, but not next year. Next year I think he'll be in the .750-800 range. I expect him to be a perennial All-Star in his prime.

[conalthomas]

In short, no. Albies hits too many fly balls, and doesn't hit them with a high enough exit velocity to consistently produce a ~.900 OPS.

Albies currently hits 16.8/40.1/43.1 LD/GB/FB. Using the splits leader boards, we can find all players with a similar batted ball profile this year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leadersspli...sort=22,1&pg=0

There are 16 names on that list, and Albies has the 2nd highest BA of .272, behind only Nelson Cruz at .286. Quite simply, that isn't a batted ball profile that lends itself to a very high BA.

Albies' average exit velocity is 86.7 MPH (ranked 223 out of 376 hitters with 100+ ABs this season). His average exit velocity on fly balls is 88.9 MPH (#229 out of 280 players who have hit 40+ fly balls this year). He has well below average power.

For reference, here is the average fly ball exit velocity of the Top 5 on the list above when ranked by BA:

Cruz - 96.9 (#6)
Donaldson - 96.1 (#13)
Machado - 94.3 (#43)
Betts - 89.4 (#216)
Dozier - 94.7 (#32)

I think you get the picture. Albies hits too many fly balls considering how hard he hits them, period.

But....look at Betts. Similar batted ball profile, similar exit velocities. How good is Betts offensively?

Betts posted a .318/.363/.534 (.897 OPS) line in 2016, and a .263/.343/.456 (.798 OPS) line this season.

He seems like a very similar hitter. Fast. BB rate in 7%-10% range. Biggest difference is Betts' K rate sits in the low-teens, while it looks like Albies will sit in the mid-teens.

What kind of hitter is "Betts with 3% more Ks"? Look no further than Betts' 2014 season when he posted a .291/.368/.444 (.812 OPS) line with a very similar K rate, BB rate and batted ball profile to Albies. Coincidentally, it matches pretty well to Albies' current line of .272/.352/.450 (.802 OPS).

So yeah, I would call Albies "Betts with a few more K's". That isn't a consistent .900 OPS guy, but that is a consistent .800-.850 OPS guy that will improve incrementally as his K and fly ball rates drop. Combine that with plus defense at 2B and plus base running, and the Braves have themselves a legit 4+ WAR player as soon as next year.

I project Albies to be the 2nd most valuable player on the Braves roster next year behind Freeman.

Thanks for the data and analysis. I find this sort of data very interesting, although I don't have much experience with it. How consistent are batted ball profiles (launch angles, exit velocities, etc.)? Is it likely to change for someone as young as Albies? Could he adjust his swing to obtain parameters that are more likely to increase success? I'm just curious if past data strongly comes down on the side of "what you see now is what you get".

[smootness]

In short, no. Albies hits too many fly balls, and doesn't hit them with a high enough exit velocity to consistently produce a ~.900 OPS.

Albies currently hits 16.8/40.1/43.1 LD/GB/FB. Using the splits leader boards, we can find all players with a similar batted ball profile this year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leadersspli...sort=22,1&pg=0

There are 16 names on that list, and Albies has the 2nd highest BA of .272, behind only Nelson Cruz at .286. Quite simply, that isn't a batted ball profile that lends itself to a very high BA.

Albies' average exit velocity is 86.7 MPH (ranked 223 out of 376 hitters with 100+ ABs this season). His average exit velocity on fly balls is 88.9 MPH (#229 out of 280 players who have hit 40+ fly balls this year). He has well below average power.

For reference, here is the average fly ball exit velocity of the Top 5 on the list above when ranked by BA:

Cruz - 96.9 (#6)
Donaldson - 96.1 (#13)
Machado - 94.3 (#43)
Betts - 89.4 (#216)
Dozier - 94.7 (#32)

I think you get the picture. Albies hits too many fly balls considering how hard he hits them, period.

But....look at Betts. Similar batted ball profile, similar exit velocities. How good is Betts offensively?

Betts posted a .318/.363/.534 (.897 OPS) line in 2016, and a .263/.343/.456 (.798 OPS) line this season.

He seems like a very similar hitter. Fast. BB rate in 7%-10% range. Biggest difference is Betts' K rate sits in the low-teens, while it looks like Albies will sit in the mid-teens.

What kind of hitter is "Betts with 3% more Ks"? Look no further than Betts' 2014 season when he posted a .291/.368/.444 (.812 OPS) line with a very similar K rate, BB rate and batted ball profile to Albies. Coincidentally, it matches pretty well to Albies' current line of .272/.352/.450 (.802 OPS).

So yeah, I would call Albies "Betts with a few more K's". That isn't a consistent .900 OPS guy, but that is a consistent .800-.850 OPS guy that will improve incrementally as his K and fly ball rates drop. Combine that with plus defense at 2B and plus base running, and the Braves have themselves a legit 4+ WAR player as soon as next year.

I project Albies to be the 2nd most valuable player on the Braves roster next year behind Freeman.

Fantastic post. Thanks, Enscheff.

I will take a Betts all day every day.

[nsacpi]

LD/GB/FB percentages are not written in stone.

In his rookie year (2011), Freddie Freeman's mix was 23.0/42.4/34.5. This year it is 23.4/34.8/41.7. Obviously, he is a very different hitter but the numbers suggest how things can evolve.

Betts has gone from 20.9/40.5/38.6 in 2014 to 17.3/40.2/42.5 this year. Less evolution.

Altuve went from 20.4/50.0/29.6 in 2011 to 19.8/46.3/34.0 this year.

Albies so far this year is at 17.0/40.0/42.6. His AAA numbers this year were 19.2/42.4/37.9. I would guess his mix next year will be somewhere between his AAA and major league numbers.

What makes Altuve and Betts great imo is the low strikeout rate in the context of everything else they bring to the table as hitters. I think strikeout rate doesn't get the attention it deserves when tracking prospects and young major leaguers. Altuve and Betts have had very low strikeout rates throughout their minor league careers. Of course you have to put that in context. They had a lot of other good qualities as well. If you have a prospect whose only calling card is a very low strikeout rate, that's not necessarily a great thing.

Btw, Camargo has had very good strikeout rates as a minor leaguer. He didn't have the other things you like to see in a young hitter. But this year he started to show some power. His strikeout rate did go up when he hit the majors (and the BABIP luck has offset that). But I'm encouraged his strikeout rate has dropped from 21.6% in the first half to 19.0 in the second. I think there is a plausible scenario now where he maintains or even develops further the power has shown this year and brings down the strikeout rate to the mid teens. That's a pretty good player. Even with a low walk rate, which I don't expect to change.

[GeorgiaGirl]

To keep things short and simple, it looks like Albies traded average for more power this year, period. Whether it was his decision or not is interesting. He does still retain the ability to simply swing for a base hit though, but unless he's behind in counts he's not going for that.

Simmons did something similar after getting to the major leagues and has similar good bat control, but Albies is different in that while he's never going to have high BB% rates, he seems to not have the issue of losing the strike zone in his attempts of making contact like young Simmons did. So in Albies' case, it'd be more like this in going for Average vs Power (I'm not going to try to calculate exactly):

Going for Average:

.300/.360/.410 (I don't think his 10.1% BB rate continues, but he might have peak years there...)

Going for Power:

.270/.330/.430

A difference, but not a big one...

[Enscheff]

To keep things short and simple, it looks like Albies traded average for more power this year, period. Whether it was his decision or not is interesting. He does still retain the ability to simply swing for a base hit though, but unless he's behind in counts he's not going for that.

Simmons did something similar after getting to the major leagues and has similar good bat control, but Albies is different in that while he's never going to have high BB% rates, he seems to not have the issue of losing the strike zone in his attempts of making contact like young Simmons did. So in Albies' case, it'd be more like this in going for Average vs Power (I'm not going to try to calculate exactly):

Going for Average:

.300/.360/.410 (I don't think his 10.1% BB rate continues, but he might have peak years there...)

Going for Power:

.270/.330/.430

A difference, but not a big one...

The first hitter is much more valuable.

The easiest path for Albies to become a better hitter is to stop hitting so many fly balls.

[Knucksie]

Remember when Kelly was going to be 1.000 OPS!

[steveAKAslick]

THEre is no way a posTer HEre would claim that

😂

[BeanieAntics]

Could Albies have a year where he had a ~.900 OPS? Yeah he could. Could he do that year in and year out? I seriously doubt it. I think Ozzie is going to be an incredibly valuable player for us, but I think the most we are going to see out of his bat, consistently, is .800 to .825. Which still makes him a player who could post 5+ wins a year.

If you look at Jose Altuve's 2015 season, that is about what I would expect Albies' high end to be, maybe minus a few stolen bases. He hit .313 with 15 homers and that was able to get him an .812 OPS. I don't see Albies doing a whole lot better than that at any point.

[nsacpi]

Remember when Kelly was going to be 1.000 OPS!

you don't have to play the same game the rest of us are, but I'd be interested in your thoughts on Albies

[Enscheff]

For reference, here is a list of all players with 400+ PAs this year and a .900+ OPS:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leadersspli...sort=22,1&pg=0

Here is the average FB exit velocities of those players:

Giancarlo Stanton 100.3 MPH
Aaron Judge 99.6 MPH
Nelson Cruz 97.1 MPH
J.D. Martinez 96.8 MPH
Ryan Zimmerman 96.2 MPH
Josh Donaldson 96.1 MPH
Cody Bellinger 95.6 MPH
Tommy Pham 95.6 MPH
Bryce Harper 95.6 MPH
Paul Goldschmidt 95.3 MPH
Marcell Ozuna 94.8 MPH
Mike Trout 94.7 MPH
Freddie Freeman 94.3 MPH
Michael Conforto 94.1 MPH
Justin Upton 93.9 MPH
Justin Smoak 93.8 MPH
Jose Abreu 93.4 MPH
Joey Votto 93.0 MPH
Anthony Rizzo 92.5 MPH
Kris Bryant 92.2 MPH
Nolan Arenado 91.8 MPH
Daniel Murphy 91.7 MPH
Charlie Blackmon 91.6 MPH
Justin Turner 91.3 MPH
Jose Altuve 90.8 MPH
Anthony Rendon 90.4 MPH
Jose Ramirez 89.7 MPH
Zack Cozart 88.9 MPH

Albies hits his FBs 88.9 MPH, the same as Cozart, last on the list.

OK, then how is Cozart posting a .940 OPS?

He is walking at a higher rate than Albies (12.1% vs 10.1%). He is striking out at a slightly lower rate (15.2% vs 16.2%). Their batted ball profiles are similar, with Cozart hitting more LDs and less GBs (19.9/37.6/42.5 vs 17.0/40.4/42.6). All good things that genuinely produce a higher OPS.

The main difference appears to be Cozart's unsustainable 15.6% HR/FB rate compared to Albies' rate of 6.7%. Cozart doesn't hit the ball any harder than Albies, but he has been the 2nd luckiest player on that list in terms of outperforming xwOBA overall (Albies is closer to the middle of the list), and the luckiest by a wide margin on fly balls (-0.185 vs -0.042 for Albies).

So this is Cozart's career year, one that he likely will never get within 100 or more points of OPS again. If CJ was Lord BABIP, Cozart is Lord HR/FB.

Albies simply doesn't hit the ball hard enough to be a consistent .900 OPS guy with such a fly ball heavy profile. He should be shooting for Altuve's career batted ball profile: 21.6/47.4/31.0, which could lead to some .900 OPS seasons if he also lowers his K rate and gets a little lucky.

I think Cozart represents Albies' floor, and Betts represents Albies' ceiling.

[jimsnores]

For reference, here is a list of all players with 400+ PAs this year and a .900+ OPS:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leadersspli...sort=22,1&pg=0

Here is the average FB exit velocities of those players:

Giancarlo Stanton 100.3 MPH
Aaron Judge 99.6 MPH
Nelson Cruz 97.1 MPH
J.D. Martinez 96.8 MPH
Ryan Zimmerman 96.2 MPH
Josh Donaldson 96.1 MPH
Cody Bellinger 95.6 MPH
Tommy Pham 95.6 MPH
Bryce Harper 95.6 MPH
Paul Goldschmidt 95.3 MPH
Marcell Ozuna 94.8 MPH
Mike Trout 94.7 MPH
Freddie Freeman 94.3 MPH
Michael Conforto 94.1 MPH
Justin Upton 93.9 MPH
Justin Smoak 93.8 MPH
Jose Abreu 93.4 MPH
Joey Votto 93.0 MPH
Anthony Rizzo 92.5 MPH
Kris Bryant 92.2 MPH
Nolan Arenado 91.8 MPH
Daniel Murphy 91.7 MPH
Charlie Blackmon 91.6 MPH
Justin Turner 91.3 MPH
Jose Altuve 90.8 MPH
Anthony Rendon 90.4 MPH
Jose Ramirez 89.7 MPH
Zack Cozart 88.9 MPH

Albies hits his FBs 88.9 MPH, the same as Cozart, last on the list.

OK, then how is Cozart posting a .940 OPS?

He is walking at a higher rate than Albies (12.1% vs 10.1%). He is striking out at a slightly lower rate (15.2% vs 16.2%). Their batted ball profiles are similar, with Cozart hitting more LDs and less GBs (19.9/37.6/42.5 vs 17.0/40.4/42.6). All good things that genuinely produce a higher OPS.

The main difference appears to be Cozart's unsustainable 15.6% HR/FB rate compared to Albies' rate of 6.7%. Cozart doesn't hit the ball any harder than Albies, but he has been the 2nd luckiest player on that list in terms of outperforming xwOBA overall (Albies is closer to the middle of the list), and the luckiest by a wide margin on fly balls (-0.185 vs -0.042 for Albies).

So this is Cozart's career year, one that he likely will never get within 100 or more points of OPS again. If CJ was Lord BABIP, Cozart is Lord HR/FB.

Albies simply doesn't hit the ball hard enough to be a consistent .900 OPS guy with such a fly ball heavy profile. He should be shooting for Altuve's career batted ball profile: 21.6/47.4/31.0, which could lead to some .900 OPS seasons if he also lowers his K rate and gets a little lucky.

I think Cozart represents Albies' floor, and Betts represents Albies' ceiling.

I follow your reasoning, and I realize that Ozzie is a little guy, but are you completely discounting the idea that he may get stronger as he physically matures, and thereby increase those exit velocity numbers you cite? If I had to prognosticate, I couldn't disagree much with your expectations, but I wouldn't 100% discount the possibility that Albies could be a consistent .875-.900 or even better hitter. Likelihood? No. Possibility, yes. There is also a possibility that he could increase his walk rate a bit, decrease his strikeouts a little and increase his LD percentage. Again, I don't disagree with what you project, just with discounting any possibility at all that he could exceed it. He may also go all Heyward on us, and never be as good as it seems inevitable that he will be. Like you, I'll be happy with an annual four plus win player, but I'll still hope for more, especially until he settles into his career.

[The Chosen One]

I would be happy if Albies just averages .800. If we could find a manager to utilize he and Ender's speed on the basepaths his value would be even better when you include defense.