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Thread: 2019 Trade Deadline Thread:

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkPiggler View Post
    I got to thinking about this yesterday afternoon while listening to the mostly stupid assed trade ideas on MLB Radio. The bulk of them revolved around some sort of overpay for Zack Wheeler.

    The Braves need a potential ace starter. The Mets need a CF.

    Would anyone on here trade Pache for Syndegaard straight up? It looks like their surplus values would line up fairly closely, minus a little trade deadline premium. Syndegaard would be here through 2021.

    Go easy on me, as this is my first time really trying to value a trade, and I'm mostly using the WAG method for estimating what Thor would get in arbitration.
    I don't know what the surplus value numbers actually look like on this, but I would not do that. Syndergaard is on good value right now, but his K numbers have been slowly coming down and subsequently, he's not pitching nearly as well. He still has value, but I could see Pache coming in and being nearly equal in value right away and with much more control and cheaper.
    "Acuna is getting lucky, just like CJ did when he batted .321 and won a batting title. He is unlikely to get lucky at the MLB level over an extended period of time. He will settle in around .300-.320 just like everyone else, and when he does, he won't be within shouting distance of the 1.000 OPS he is posting in AAA...more like low .700s in 2018." -Enscheff 8/25/17

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    I’d be really interested in Wheeler if the price isn’t just crazy. A high leverage bp arm is and should be our #1 priority no doubt

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    I don't know what the surplus value numbers actually look like on this, but I would not do that. Syndergaard is on good value right now, but his K numbers have been slowly coming down and subsequently, he's not pitching nearly as well. He still has value, but I could see Pache coming in and being nearly equal in value right away and with much more control and cheaper.
    This is how I figured the values, using the prospect valuation from Fangraphs from the link Enscheff posted in his forum, and the Fangraphs WAR projections through '21 for Syndegaard.

    Pache: 60 FV, surplus value $53MM

    Syndegaard:

    2019: 1.9 fWAR, $2.0MM salary
    2020: 4.2 fWAR, $12.0MM salary
    2021: 4.1 fWAR, $18.0MM salary

    10.2 fWAR @ $8MM = $81.6MM value
    - 32.0MM salary
    Total: $48.6MM surplus value

    Like I said above, the arb salary estimates are guesses.

    I don't know if I'd do that deal either. The fact that the Braves have Waters at AA along with Pache makes me kind of lean towards it, but I'd probably lead with an offer of Waters plus a lesser pitching prospect to see if the Mets would take it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Another article went up about how great a trade target Smith is:

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-best...-trade-market/

    Unfortunately, since FG is going down the crapper with their hiring of sub-par fluff writers to replace the talent they lost to MLB teams, the author didn't take the time to go all the way with the article and analyze the returns for those BP rentals.

    So I guess that's up to us. Here are the FVs of the players at the time of the trade (as best I could determine):

    Zack Britton 2018 - Dillon Tate 40+, Josh Rogers 40, Cody Carroll 40
    Mark Melancon 2016 - Felipe Vazquez (probably a 45 as a potential impact BP arm with some MLB IP), Taylor Hearn 40
    Addison Reed 2017 - Gerson Bautista 40, Jamie Callahan 40, and Stephen Nogosek NA
    Jeurys Familia 2018 - Will Toffey 40, Bobby Wahl 40, $1M international pool money
    Joakim Soria 2018 - Kodi Medeiros 40, Wilber Perez NA (young arm from the DSL)
    Anthony Swarzak 2017 - Ryan Cordell 45
    Aroldis Chapman 2016 - Gleyber Torres 60, Adam Warren NA (MLB arm), Billy McKinney 40, Rashad Crawford NA

    The Chapman insanity aside, we see these top rental BP arms seems to cost 2-3 40s, with maybe a 45 in there to push the package over the top.

    The price for Smith is likely going to be the same. The Braves have a ton of 40/45s for the Giants to take the 2-3 they want:

    Kyle Muller 45+
    Shea Langeliers 45
    Joey Wentz 45
    Alex Jackson 40+
    Kolby Allard 40+
    Greyson Jenista 40+
    Braden Shewmake 40
    Freddy Tarnok 40
    Huascar Ynoa 40
    Michael Harris 40
    Tristan Beck 40
    Tucker Davidson 40
    Victor Vodnik 40
    Vaughn Grissom 40
    Daysbel Hernandez 40
    Patrick Weigel 40
    Jasseel De La Cruz 40
    CJ Alexander 40
    Josh Graham 40

    Lango probably isn't going anywhere, but I would be fine with any 3 of those 40s (though Vodnik would hurt).

    If Muller or Wentz go that would be pretty much the whole package.
    Tucker Davidson, Jasseel De La Cruz, and Daysbal Hernandez have all had good 1st halves and could be good sell high candidates IMO

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    Tucker Davidson, Jasseel De La Cruz, and Daysbal Hernandez have all had good 1st halves and could be good sell high candidates IMO
    I’m guessing the new leadership in SF will be too smart to fall for sell high candidates. They should be looking at the same data the Braves are when valuing these guys.

    However, they may be looking to pull off a short rebuild that could make them value MLB ready guys more than they typically would. It will be very interesting to see what AA pulls off.

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    Syndegard has about 55m of surplus value, so maybe a trade package worth 82.5m.

    That's more like Pache, Wilson/Touissant/Wentz, , plus something else interesting.

    Mets would probably shoot for something Pache and Anderson/Wright.

    I think Thor stands to make about 11m in 2020 and 16m in 2021, but not as sure about that arb4 number.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkPiggler View Post
    This is how I figured the values, using the prospect valuation from Fangraphs
    I love to see more and more people here use data to drive discussion. Bravo

    Having said that, I really hope the Braves don't trade any prospects from their top tier guys.
    Go get him!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Syndegard has about 55m of surplus value, so maybe a trade package worth 82.5m.

    That's more like Pache, Wilson/Touissant/Wentz, , plus something else interesting.

    Mets would probably shoot for something Pache and Anderson/Wright.

    I think Thor stands to make about 11m in 2020 and 16m in 2021, but not as sure about that arb4 number.
    So just to get this straight. You guys want to give Pache (who could easily be a perennial all star), for a very talented pitcher who has a absolute horrible injury history.

    I honestly don’t care who we give up on the farm EXCEPT for Pache and Waters. They are absolutely on the untouchable list. Having an out field of Acuna, Pache and Waters for years on the cheap is just too valuable.

    You just don’t trade those guys...for anyone and especially not on an overpay trade deadline deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkPiggler View Post
    I got to thinking about this yesterday afternoon while listening to the mostly stupid assed trade ideas on MLB Radio. The bulk of them revolved around some sort of overpay for Zack Wheeler.

    The Braves need a potential ace starter. The Mets need a CF.

    Would anyone on here trade Pache for Syndegaard straight up? It looks like their surplus values would line up fairly closely, minus a little trade deadline premium. Syndegaard would be here through 2021.

    Go easy on me, as this is my first time really trying to value a trade, and I'm mostly using the WAG method for estimating what Thor would get in arbitration.
    Interesting at least.

    Not sure which way I'd lean, but wonder if the Mutts would make a trade like that within the division - even if AA would. Could you imagine what the New York press would be like if they were to make that kind of deal only to see Syndergaard front our rotation for three deep playoff runs if Pache didn't turn into an All-Star almost immediately?

    I'm just not sure there's anyone out there that I'd trade Pache for at this point - given how inexpensively Acuna and Albies are locked up for, the likelihood that Freeman and Dansby would sign team-friendly extensions, our pitching depth (even if an "Ace" doesn't emerge from within), and the money coming off the books over the next couple of years, if Riley, Pache, and Waters develop into anything close to what we hope you could go out and spend big to sign Cole this winter if AA felt like he HAD to have that TOR guy and still have all this depth. I know no one likes those big contracts (especially for Pitchers) but if you still control all our offensive players other than Donaldson what do you do with the $48 million that Donaldson/Keuchel/Teheran made this year? That still leaves the $17 million that O'Day, Swarzak, and Duvall are making to spend on arbitration raises, and you could choose to trade Ender and/or trade Gausman or cut him loose if you needed more money.
    Last edited by clvclv; 07-03-2019 at 11:26 AM.
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    Pache has progressed pretty much along the best case scenario path. Count me as one who wouldn’t trade him for pretty much anything.

    Like Paxton, Thor is the type of elite arm I could get behind acquiring, but it would have to be for a package centered around Riley, Waters, Anderson and/or Wright.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    So just to get this straight. You guys want to give Pache (who could easily be a perennial all star), for a very talented pitcher who has a absolute horrible injury history.

    I honestly don’t care who we give up on the farm EXCEPT for Pache and Waters. They are absolutely on the untouchable list. Having an outfield of Acuna, Pache, and Waters for years on the cheap is just too valuable.

    You just don’t trade those guys...for anyone and especially not on an overpay trade deadline deal.
    Those two and Anderson for me.

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    I wouldn't trade those three for any kind of pitcher that would be available.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnAdcox View Post
    Those two and Anderson for me.
    After those three, I think Wright, the two Catchers, and Shewmake probably make up that extended "untouchable unless it's a MAJOR deal" list.

    Just can't see them giving up on Wright this quickly - entirely too much upside there. Are we really so close that we can give up those kinds of pieces just yet?
    Last edited by clvclv; 07-03-2019 at 12:51 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    So just to get this straight. You guys want to give Pache (who could easily be a perennial all star), for a very talented pitcher who has a absolute horrible injury history.

    I honestly don’t care who we give up on the farm EXCEPT for Pache and Waters. They are absolutely on the untouchable list. Having an out field of Acuna, Pache and Waters for years on the cheap is just too valuable.

    You just don’t trade those guys...for anyone and especially not on an overpay trade deadline deal.
    Who is you guys?

    I was just seeing what I thought it would cost.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    After those three, I think Wright, the two Catchers, and Shewmake probably make up that extended "untouchable unless it's a MAJOR deal" list.

    Just can't see them giving up on Wright this quickly - entirely too much upside there. Are we really so close that we can give up those kinds of pieces just yet?
    Shewmake? If we can flip him for something of value this soon, we should absolutely be open to that.
    "Acuna is getting lucky, just like CJ did when he batted .321 and won a batting title. He is unlikely to get lucky at the MLB level over an extended period of time. He will settle in around .300-.320 just like everyone else, and when he does, he won't be within shouting distance of the 1.000 OPS he is posting in AAA...more like low .700s in 2018." -Enscheff 8/25/17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I’m guessing the new leadership in SF will be too smart to fall for sell high candidates. They should be looking at the same data the Braves are when valuing these guys.

    However, they may be looking to pull off a short rebuild that could make them value MLB ready guys more than they typically would. It will be very interesting to see what AA pulls off.
    Im hoping AA can convince a team to take what Baltimore did for Machado from LA. Quantity over Quality with no really standout prospects included.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Shewmake? If we can flip him for something of value this soon, we should absolutely be open to that.
    Only included him because I think someone would love to have Camargo in a deal at the deadline - if Shewmake moves as fast as hoped you keep Culberson as your utility guy for 2020, and hope Shewmake is ready to fill that kind of role in 2021.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkPiggler View Post
    I got to thinking about this yesterday afternoon while listening to the mostly stupid assed trade ideas on MLB Radio. The bulk of them revolved around some sort of overpay for Zack Wheeler.

    The Braves need a potential ace starter. The Mets need a CF.

    Would anyone on here trade Pache for Syndegaard straight up? It looks like their surplus values would line up fairly closely, minus a little trade deadline premium. Syndegaard would be here through 2021.

    Go easy on me, as this is my first time really trying to value a trade, and I'm mostly using the WAG method for estimating what Thor would get in arbitration.

    I think I would do that. Very on the fence about it but having Acuna in CF is the reason I would make the deal. Surplus value is a joke though. Its only as good as your ability to predict future performance which might work with established MLB players but is about as effective as using voodoo when valuing prospects.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Pache has progressed pretty much along the best case scenario path. Count me as one who wouldn’t trade him for pretty much anything.

    Like Paxton, Thor is the type of elite arm I could get behind acquiring, but it would have to be for a package centered around Riley, Waters, Anderson and/or Wright.
    This I like.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Syndegard has about 55m of surplus value, so maybe a trade package worth 82.5m.

    That's more like Pache, Wilson/Touissant/Wentz, , plus something else interesting.

    Mets would probably shoot for something Pache and Anderson/Wright.

    I think Thor stands to make about 11m in 2020 and 16m in 2021, but not as sure about that arb4 number.
    Doubt we look to unload Pache or Waters honestly. Even for a high end player.
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