SUNDAY MINORS FINAL 5/14 ... 3 superlative starts

[Horsehide Harry]

If we were able to get a top 15 prospect and 2 B prospects for Julio he would have been moved last year. Julio sure as hell isn't getting us a top 15 now after his velocity has dropped and he's sucking. Garcia has very little value at all. Throwing two average players together doesn't net you top prospects.

Eaton is quite a bit more valuable than Ender, no chance the Cubs give up Eloy for him now that Eloy has broken out. We might have been able to pull that trade off before last season (and it was something I was hoping we'd explore before Fowler resigned with them), but no way now.

In 2014 The Cubs traded Hammel and Samardzjia to Oakland for Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, Dan Straily and Cash. Russell was higher rated then than Brinson is now IIRC. McKinney, even though he hasn't worked out, was a top 100 guy. Both pitchers that went to Oakland were rentals and neither arguably at the time was anywhere near the pitcher that Teheran is nor with the contract and control.

As for Inciarte not bringing back Jimenez, I think you're wrong on that.

Of course all of it presupposes the right opportunity which would mean that the Brewers would need to stay in and decide they want pitching and the Cubs would need to decide that they really need a LO CF.

The overall point is that when you are rebuilding you should always stand ready to take advantage of circumstances.

What's funny to me is that some want to take the position of players being untouchable on one hand then argue that they aren't worth much to other teams on the other hand.

[auyushu]

What's funny to me is that some want to take the position of players being untouchable on one hand then argue that they aren't worth much to other teams on the other hand.

Who would that be exactly? Absolutely nobody you are discussing things with in this thread considered Julio untouchable, we were actually driving the Julio should be traded bus.

And you are discussing the Cubs ripping off the A's in the same breath you are talking about getting Jimenez for Ender, that's counterintuitive. If the Cubs hadn't won the WS last year they might be willing to go all out like they did trading for Chapman, but they have no need for desperation trades now and are run by one of the better front offices in baseball. They aren't going to make dumb moves.

And the Samardzija trade has zero in common with Julio, he was pitching like an Ace when he was traded to the A's and has legit Ace stuff (even though he's been average for his career), while Julio has a fastball around 90 now and is pitching like hot garbage. We'd be lucky to get 2 B prospects for Julio right now, we certainly aren't getting a top 20 prospect for him the way he's pitching.

[Enscheff]

In 2014 The Cubs traded Hammel and Samardzjia to Oakland for Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, Dan Straily and Cash. Russell was higher rated then than Brinson is now IIRC. McKinney, even though he hasn't worked out, was a top 100 guy. Both pitchers that went to Oakland were rentals and neither arguably at the time was anywhere near the pitcher that Teheran is nor with the contract and control.

As for Inciarte not bringing back Jimenez, I think you're wrong on that.

Of course all of it presupposes the right opportunity which would mean that the Brewers would need to stay in and decide they want pitching and the Cubs would need to decide that they really need a LO CF.

The overall point is that when you are rebuilding you should always stand ready to take advantage of circumstances.

What's funny to me is that some want to take the position of players being untouchable on one hand then argue that they aren't worth much to other teams on the other hand.

Come on man, if that offer was available for Julio he would have been traded long ago.

Quintana and Darvish will be out there for contenders. Julio will at best be the #3 option available, and there aren't 3 teams willing to give up a package including a Top 15 guy for Julio.

[smootness]

In 2014 The Cubs traded Hammel and Samardzjia to Oakland for Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, Dan Straily and Cash. Russell was higher rated then than Brinson is now IIRC. McKinney, even though he hasn't worked out, was a top 100 guy. Both pitchers that went to Oakland were rentals and neither arguably at the time was anywhere near the pitcher that Teheran is nor with the contract and control.

As for Inciarte not bringing back Jimenez, I think you're wrong on that.

Of course all of it presupposes the right opportunity which would mean that the Brewers would need to stay in and decide they want pitching and the Cubs would need to decide that they really need a LO CF.

The overall point is that when you are rebuilding you should always stand ready to take advantage of circumstances.

What's funny to me is that some want to take the position of players being untouchable on one hand then argue that they aren't worth much to other teams on the other hand.

You have a tendency to throw out trades that everyone agrees were lopsided and dumb to justify why we can get a similar deal. Giving up Russell alone in that deal was extremely stupid of the A's to do. Sure, it is possible we could fleece someone in the same way it was possible we fleeced the D-Backs for Miller. But it is very unlikely. Deals like that are a rarity, and now that Dave Stewart is out of the league, they are even less likely.

And Eaton is quite a bit more valuable than Inciarte. We would not be able to get Jimenez for him, period.

[TheBravos]

Value lies in what a team needs. If you are a gold glove center fielder away from contending, then Inciarte holds more value. Being the Braves are not likely looking to trade him AT ALL....then you know you have to come with a incredible offer to even have a chance. Fact of the matter very few of this type players (key= young, signed long term reasonably and super talented) ever come on the market. Yes, they would have to pay through the nose to pry him away. Granted...it's not happening, but if it did....absolutely expect it to be a Shelby type trade. That's the only way the Braves even consider it.

[nsacpi]

Value lies in what a team needs.

This is a very interesting issue. It is influenced by what a team needs. But also there is a market based on what other bidders think of a player. There is a grey area between the two where the price is set. And the exact location of the price between the two parameters is a function of the bargaining skills of the two front offices.

[TheBravos]

If you know a team really wants to move a player and will move them with the best offer...then yes.

If you know a team is not shopping a player and would rather keep him , but YOU want him...then that doesn't matter.

[nsacpi]

If you know a team really wants to move a player and will move them with the best offer...then yes.

If you know a team is not shopping a player and would rather keep him , but YOU want him...then that doesn't matter.

When I read about a team "shopping" a player I tend to think they are making a mistake. And when a team decides it really must have a particular player, it is also likely making a mistake.

[smootness]

Any team coming after Inciarte would have to provide real, legitimate value in return. But a guy on the verge of being a consensus top-10 power hitting prospect? You're not getting that.

[Hawk]

Who would that be exactly? Absolutely nobody you are discussing things with in this thread considered Julio untouchable, we were actually driving the Julio should be traded bus.

And you are discussing the Cubs ripping off the A's in the same breath you are talking about getting Jimenez for Ender, that's counterintuitive. If the Cubs hadn't won the WS last year they might be willing to go all out like they did trading for Chapman, but they have no need for desperation trades now and are run by one of the better front offices in baseball. They aren't going to make dumb moves.

And the Samardzija trade has zero in common with Julio, he was pitching like an Ace when he was traded to the A's and has legit Ace stuff (even though he's been average for his career), while Julio has a fastball around 90 now and is pitching like hot garbage. We'd be lucky to get 2 B prospects for Julio right now, we certainly aren't getting a top 20 prospect for him the way he's pitching.

The point that he's (correctly) making is that the constitution of the market can drastically dictate a player's relative value. I'm not saying that his valuations of our players are correct, but we have no way to accurately predict the haul that Teheran might bring in a pitching hungry environment or what we might command for Inciarte in a market that demands cost-controlled defensively tilted outfielders.

[Hawk]

It is influenced by what a team needs. But also there is a market based on what other bidders think of a player. There is a grey area between the two where the price is set. And the exact location of the price between the two parameters is a function of the bargaining skills of the two front offices.

And that market is shrouded in rumors, intrigue, and obfuscation. History would seem to dictate that a team is almost universally going to err on the side of need over gambling on the market. With a few notable exceptions.

[Southcack77]

Any team coming after Inciarte would have to provide real, legitimate value in return. But a guy on the verge of being a consensus top-10 power hitting prospect? You're not getting that.

I'd be curious to know what people would think was fair for inciarte given how upset people are over Simmons. Similar situation though inciarte probably has the better contract.

[Southcack77]

The point that he's (correctly) making is that the constitution of the market can drastically dictate a player's relative value. I'm not saying that his valuations of our players are correct, but we have no way to accurately predict the haul that Teheran might bring in a pitching hungry environment or what we might command for Inciarte in a market that demands cost-controlled defensively tilted outfielders.

Problem with Teheran is that baseball doesn't seek to think he's an ace. He's probably more valuable now as a 4/5 starter than he is to a contender near the deadline.

[Hawk]

Problem with Teheran is that baseball doesn't seek to think he's an ace. He's probably more valuable now as a 4/5 starter than he is to a contender near the deadline.

He's not an ace. I have to believe that anyone who ever thought that never actually saw him pitch.

But in a hypothetical future where Quintana is off the market - absent of other entrants - it's not at all a stretch to imagine Teheran being pushed as a TOR option, or, at the very least, a veteran impact arm.

[zbhargrove]

I'd be curious to know what people would think was fair for inciarte given how upset people are over Simmons. Similar situation though inciarte probably has the better contract.

I think Inciarte is more valuable. He's a better hitter and faster.

[thewupk]

I think Inciarte is more valuable. He's a better hitter and faster.

They are essentially the same as far as on the field value goes. Ender is a little better of an offensive player and Andrelton is a better defensive player at a more premium position. Both have very favorable contracts. Both are defense first players. Braves got a league average player who was a free agent to be and a top 30 prospect. With the Braves involved you are likely getting a similar return if a trade did come together.

[Southcack77]

They are essentially the same as far as on the field value goes. Ender is a little better of an offensive player and Andrelton is a better defensive player at a more premium position. Both have very favorable contracts. Both are defense first players. Braves got a league average player who was a free agent to be and a top 30 prospect. With the Braves involved you are likely getting a similar return if a trade did come together.

So what would be fair? You know for a non braves front office.

Clearly Simmons was super awesome and maybe inciarte isn't as super awesome for whatever reason, but what's the proper return?