Farewell to Wood, Peraza, Jimmy Johns, and Avilans.

[SidSlid92]

Not that I disagree that it was a bad trade... but Peraza is definitely not our top prospect anymore.

Debatable, but no one can argue that Olivera should have necessitated his inclusion.

Friedman and the rest of baseball are laughing at the Johns right about now.

[gilesfan]

It all boils down to Olivera. He shows he can play (more importantly hit), this probably turns out to be a decent deal. Big risk though.

I am not as enamored as most on the board regarding Wood, although I will readily admit that he's a good pitcher. "How good?" is the pending question. Peraza moves back to SS, where he likely holds the most value and can sport an OPS in the low-to-mid .600 range while contributing considerable value. I always thought the Braves rushed him a bit. His on-base skills need some fine-tuning and I think slowing down his ascent might have helped with that. He's still an unfinished product in my view.

So, like usual, I'm in the middle although I will readily admit this deal is the riskiest the Hart and Co. have completed during the re-build.

Huge risk for sure. There is a good amount of upside as well. My probably with the upside is due to age/injury, his high upside has a short shelf life.

[GovClintonTyree]

What? You think in a one-game scenario, Hamels is way better than Wood? That's ridiculous.

In addition to the SSS arguments the stat guys will throw at you, he's not nearly as successful in '15 as he was in '14. Dramatic drop in velo and Ks. Now, he says he's doing it on purpose, pitching to contact more, but he's not getting guys out like he used to.

Yes, Wood throws good games. Les Straker lit it up for the Minnesota Twins in 1987 playoffs when Morris and Blyleven were the only reliable starters they had. Freddy Garcia make pitch for us.

Hamels and Wood aren't in the same galaxy and there are some disturbing trends with Wood.

[SidSlid92]

I'm sorry but if you're gonna preach self-righteous about "getting back to the Braves way," that should not include trading a promising 24-year-old lefty who's cheap and controllable for several more seasons. All for a guy over 30, with elbow problems, who MIGHT have an .800-.850 OPS as the centerpiece, an OK prospect and another injured reliever.

We didn't get Puig or any established bat.
We didn't get one of their top 4-5 prospects for Wood.
And we didn't get rid of Chris Johnson.

Preach!

[zbhargrove]

His velocity is down because he wanted more sink on his sinker.

His FIP is down slightly from last year 3.25 to 3.39. He's a 24 year old with a low 3 ERA career wise. Heck, he's even pitched well this year (3.54 ERA) despite a crazy high .332 BABIP and low strand rate.

Don't address the K% and K/9 plus much higher WHIP, I guess... those are huge deals to you with every other pitcher you try and pick apart.

[striker42]

The more and more I read about Bird and the adjustments, changes in velocity he has show this year... I'm a bit more excited about him than I initially was.

He's got talent but he sounds like more of a future reliever. Big fastball with off speed stuff lagging. Not a ton of success in the rotation in the minors. Seems like the kind of guy who will move to the pen in another year or two.

[dak]

I feel like folks would be feeling A LOT better about this deal if we acquired Olivera for the full $62.5m plus $35M or so worth of prospects instead of $35m or so in cash.

[gilesfan]

Also funny how injury risk craters Olivera's value but doesn't apply to Wood's.

Because one guy had a TJ surgery a few years ago in college vs. someone that has missed two of the last 3 years and is currently injured AND totally unrelated, but has a blood disorder?

[SidSlid92]

#Braves plan was always overstock young SP to get bats. Looked at fr agt mkt not many hitters available. So turned Wood into Oliveras

Which I don't think anyone would have a problem with. But the inclusion of Peraza steers this thing the wrong direction. Let's say the Dodgers give Holmes and Barnes back; no one will be infuriated over the deal then. But Zach Bird? And an injured Paco?

[smootness]

Here's his scouting report from Fangraphs' Kiley McDaniel:

The Scouting Report

Hit: 45/55, Game Power: 45/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 55/55, Field: 50/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50

There’s undeniable talent here: Olivera has above average bat speed, bat control, plate discipline and raw power, which is to all fields and he has a history of getting to in games. He’s an above average runner that can play second base or third base and has an above average arm. That’s an above average everyday player with the statistical track record to give you some confidence that he’ll perform in the big leagues, but there’s real risk of him staying on the field regularly and not having his tools regress in a few years.

What all of this the means is that the optimistic outcome is, in 2015 in the big leagues, that Olivera could hit .260-.280 with a good OBP, 15-20 homers and solid-average base running and defensive value. He may well be better in 2015 than Yasmany Tomas and Rusney Castillo, but given his age and track record, that isn’t going out on much of a limb; the concern is if he’s better than them in the following years and the risk associated with that. It’s possible Olivera will need a couple week in the minors to get up to speed, but he’s seen as a plug-and-play MLB option.

So Wood, Peraza, JJ, and Avilan for a 50 FV prospect who is already owed money, a 45 FV prospect, a reliever, a pick, and a few million in savings.

[Millwood1Hitter]

[DirkPiggler]

Because one guy had a TJ surgery a few years ago in college vs. someone that has missed two of the last 3 years and is currently injured AND totally unrelated, but has a blood disorder?

If the blood disorder kills him, we're off the hook for his remaining salary, right?

[smootness]

So are you JUST using FIP and xFIP to compare the two? How else do they compare? Do quality IPs not matter for starting pitchers? Does going deep into games not matter? I just don't see how you can compare Wood to them RIGHT NOW. And with Wood's falling velo while Hamels is till throwing 95? Not close.

I'm not talking about the life of the deal right now. I'm specifically talking about a playoff scenario. All that matters is runs allowed and to a lesser extent innings. Hameln may give you an extra inning, but they'll do similarly well in keeping runs from scoring. Being a workhorse and velocity matter far more over the life of the deal than a one-game scenario.

[Hawk]

I'm sad.

[gilesfan]

Don't address the K% and K/9 plus much higher WHIP, I guess... those are huge deals to you with every other pitcher you try and pick apart.

I couldn't give a **** about WHIP, but that is affected by his BABIP. Lower Ks because he's throwing the sinker more now which has led to less homers. Either way, despite what anyone things, he's a career 3.10 ERA guy that is currently at 3.5. At 24, that is awfully promising.

If you even completely ignore the last 2 years, Wood is a mid 3 ERA guy that offers promise as a 24 year old.

[weso1]

His velocity is down because he wanted more sink on his sinker.

His FIP is down slightly from last year 3.25 to 3.39. He's a 24 year old with a low 3 ERA career wise. Heck, he's even pitched well this year (3.54 ERA) despite a crazy high .332 BABIP and low strand rate.

How do you know about the sinker? Either way his groundball % hasn't improved significantly if at all. I don't think you can just write off the concerns with Wood's velocity decline and k/9 decline.

[zbhargrove]

I couldn't give a **** about WHIP, but that is affected by his BABIP. Lower Ks because he's throwing the sinker more now which has led to less homers. Either way, despite what anyone things, he's a career 3.10 ERA guy that is currently at 3.5. At 24, that is awfully promising.

If you even completely ignore the last 2 years, Wood is a mid 3 ERA guy that offers promise as a 24 year old.

You are such an angry little man

[drewdat]

If the blood disorder kills him, we're off the hook for his remaining salary, right?

Chris Johnson: "Hector, why are you always trying to share food with me? That's not even how it works."

[smootness]

I feel like folks would be feeling A LOT better about this deal if we acquired Olivera for the full $62.5m plus $35M or so worth of prospects instead of $35m or so in cash.

Yes. I would rather have paid Olivera and kept Wood and Peraza, and I would rather have traded that package for a much younger prospect. Both, I would have accepted.

[yeezus]

I'm not talking about the life of the deal right now. I'm specifically talking about a playoff scenario. All that matters is runs allowed and to a lesser extent innings. Hameln may give you an extra inning, but they'll do similarly well in keeping runs from scoring. Being a workhorse and velocity matter far more over the life of the deal than a one-game scenario.

..What?
Hamels is a far better and more dependable pitcher right now. His IP matter a TON to a team, throughout the season AND in the playoffs. Wood is not on his level, at all. What are you using to say he is, besides xFIP and FIP?