Where are we on the expected win curve?

[bravesfanMatt]

It was a combination of some changes and a hot streak. Disentangling the two factors is the challenge.

that is a hard thing to do. Ender shouldn't produce like the second half... but you could say the same for the 1st half. Then how much of Ender's offense carried the team to X number of wins. Does Jace's recent struggles factor into recent losses. Is FF a 1.000 ops guy going forward or does he regress? What about Blair? or Collmenter.. does Folty just blow it out of the water with a healthy offseason of work.. Adonis continued to impress up until the last day.. how does he start.. would a Rio/Adonis platoon be better than a 80% Adonis/ 20% Rio.

[nsacpi]

that is a hard thing to do. Ender shouldn't produce like the second half... but you could say the same for the 1st half. Then how much of Ender's offense carried the team to X number of wins. Does Jace's recent struggles factor into recent losses. Is FF a 1.000 ops guy going forward or does he regress? What about Blair? or Collmenter.. does Folty just blow it out of the water with a healthy offseason of work.. Adonis continued to impress up until the last day.. how does he start.. would a Rio/Adonis platoon be better than a 80% Adonis/ 20% Rio.

I would say if you want to project next year, as a rough approximation give 30% weight to 2014 performance, 30% to 2015 and 40% to 2016. If you want go give second half of 2016 a little more weight than the first half that's fine, but it aint gonna move the needle much. Obviously the weights are a bit different for very young and very old players.

[bravesfanMatt]

I would say if you want to project next year, as a rough approximation give 30% weight to 2014 performance, 30% to 2015 and 40% to 2016. If you want go give second half of 2016 a little more weight than the first half that's fine, but it aint gonna move the needle much. Obviously the weights are a bit different for very young and very old players.

huh... what % of players from 2014 are still on this team? 30%?!?

[Chico]

my middle is 80. i'm looking forward to the team competing for something besides a draft pick.

I think this is the key. Actually going in to an offseason with the plan to win is a lot different than we've experienced the last two years no matter what they've said publicly.

[nsacpi]

huh... what % of players from 2014 are still on this team? 30%?!?

I am referring to projections for individual players. For example, the WAR numbers for Markakis the last three seasons are: 2.5, 1.5 and 1.0. Not all three seasons were with the Braves. But a weighted average of the last three seasons is the best way to go even if one of them was with another team. Anyhow my 2017 projection for Muk is 1.5.

[bravesfanMatt]

I am referring to projections for individual players. For example, the WAR numbers for Markakis the last three seasons are: 2.5, 1.5 and 1.0. Not all three seasons were with the Braves. But a weighted average of the last three seasons is the best way to go even if one of them was with another team. Anyhow my 2017 projection for Muk is 1.5.

Sorry, totally missed that..

[bravesfanMatt]

Can't link twitter at work, but DOB said Braves are NOT in the market for a 3b with Adonis improved play.

[sturg33]

Markakis ended the year with one WAR... down from 1.5 in 2015... He was basically an average hitter (98 wRC+) and terrible defensively. He will be yet another year older next year. I think we've seen the best of him.

As many folks at the time of the deal said, we're gonna be regretting this contract in years 3 and 4.

[nsacpi]

Markakis ended the year with one WAR... down from 1.5 in 2015... He was basically an average hitter (98 wRC+) and terrible defensively. He will be yet another year older next year. I think we've seen the best of him.

As many folks at the time of the deal said, we're gonna be regretting this contract in years 3 and 4.

I don't think 1.5 WAR in 2017 is over optimistic in light of his second half vs first half splits.

[nsacpi]

Can't link twitter at work, but DOB said Braves are NOT in the market for a 3b with Adonis improved play.

In light of the signings of Freese and Prado and likelihood Turner and Jennings will get qualifying offers, it makes sense. I think Adonis will be start out as our primary third baseman with some mixing and matching as necessary. I would sign KJ and give him some PT at third. Jace and Rio are options too.

[bravesfanMatt]

Markakis ended the year with one WAR... down from 1.5 in 2015... He was basically an average hitter (98 wRC+) and terrible defensively. He will be yet another year older next year. I think we've seen the best of him.

As many folks at the time of the deal said, we're gonna be regretting this contract in years 3 and 4.

I would still like a Neck trade visit this offseason.

[auyushu]

my middle is 80. i'm looking forward to the team competing for something besides a draft pick.

Same here on both counts. 75ish wins with poor starting pitching, 80ish with average starting pitching, 85ish if Folty and someone else makes a leap forward.

[Enscheff]

Can't link twitter at work, but DOB said Braves are NOT in the market for a 3b with Adonis improved play.

It's unfortunate, but there don't appear to be many upgrades available anymore that won't have a QO attached. Outside of trading for a long term solution like Baez, a platoon with Ruiz/Garcia may very well be their best option.

As long as Garcia doesn't hit 2nd and is routinely replaced defensively (also known as managed correctly), this platoon won't be the worst thing in the world.

[sturg33]

Ruiz put up an .833 OPS against righties this year. Garcia career is .829 OPS against lefties... Perhaps the two of them could give us an .800 OPS player with decent defense (assuming Ruiz is playing 65% of the games

That's probably a bit too optimistic on Ruiz though

[Southcack77]

Same here on both counts. 75ish wins with poor starting pitching, 80ish with average starting pitching, 85ish if Folty and someone else makes a leap forward.

I think .500 is possible if they acquire a good starter. Certainly don't want to be discussing draft picks in 2017, but still figure they are sellers at deadline.

[chop2chip]

Markakis ended the year with one WAR... down from 1.5 in 2015... He was basically an average hitter (98 wRC+) and terrible defensively. He will be yet another year older next year. I think we've seen the best of him.

As many folks at the time of the deal said, we're gonna be regretting this contract in years 3 and 4.

DRS really liked Markakis this year. He was +10.

[thewupk]

DRS really liked Markakis this year. He was +10.

And 0.3 UZR. He certainly wasn't horrible defensively this season.

[Southcack77]

Its a tough call on what the relative weights for his Southern League and major league numbers to give. I settled on something like 50-50. His major league equivalents from the Southern League suggested he was not quite ready, to quote one of the baseball men in our FO.

League hasn't really had the chance to get second looks at him yet. Could regress before stepping forward.

Like the kid very much though.

[Southcack77]

DRS really liked Markakis this year. He was +10.

I assume the decline in war was due to the generally better offensive numbers league wise?

Because markakis came pretty close to replicating his career numbers this year and had a better season than last IMO, particularly when you consider how good he was in not may.

[thewupk]

I assume the decline in war was due to the generally better offensive numbers league wise?

Because markakis came pretty close to replicating his career numbers this year and had a better season than last IMO, particularly when you consider how good he was in not may.

Pretty much. Also the offensive side of WAR likes OBP more than SLG where the OPS stat prefers SLG. So while his OPS is the same as 2015, Nick had a much higher OBP which is part of it. The other part is as you said. Run scoring was up, especially homers, so Nicks homerun spike compared to last year isn't that impressive since everyone was hitting homeruns.

Nick was pretty much league avg hitter this year where he was above average last year.