Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Enscheff]

it could be more than $5M, but yeah, point taken. it could very well work out fine but the risk is probably too big for the potential reward.

And that's the way transactions must be evaluated.

For example, if someone offers you a coin flip for $10, and pays you $15 if you guess right (150% return), you made a mistake if you accepted the risk regardless of the outcome.

[50PoundHead]

Fowler's a guy that might be worth taking a look at...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/...ssignment.html

We just designated Demeritte for assignment. He's arguably a better player than Fowler.

[Heyward]

We just designated Demeritte for assignment. He's arguably a better player than Fowler.

The Demeritte roster spot is for Lamb, i'd assume. Braves havent announced the signing yet.

[bravesfanMatt]

We just designated Demeritte for assignment. He's arguably a better player than Fowler.

Wait, so we aren’t exploring Ozzie trades.

[50PoundHead]

The Demeritte roster spot is for Lamb, i'd assume. Braves havent announced the signing yet.

It's done. Demeritte cleared waivers and is now on the Gwinnett roster. I was just critiquing clvclv's suggestion of Dustin Fowler.

To earlier points about Smyly, while I'm not in love with the signing, I can see the logic behind adding both him and Morton. Question will always be on price. At the time they were signed, I thought Anthopoulos jumped the market but in retrospect both deals fall within the expected range. For me, the issue gets to be the offense and I may be one of the only folks worried about it, but I think there are question marks there if d'Arnaud and Ozuna (and to some extent Swanson) don't repeat their 2020 performance.

[jpx7]

We just designated Demeritte for assignment. He's arguably a better player than Fowler.

It's pretty damn arguable. Demeritte had a better 2019 in AAA, but that's about all he has on Fowler. I don't think either are great shakes, but Fowler's a LHH, making him a better fit for the Cobb County bench (if Pache and Ozuna both start on the grass, that's three RHH OFs); plus Fowler can actually play a competent CF, whereas Demeritte is restricted to the corners. And as far as projections go, Zips sees Demeritte as a -0.2 WAR player in ~500 PA, versus 0.8 for Fowler.

I'm not some big Fowler-stan (in fact, I pretty much forgot he existed between the Sonny Gray trade and today), but I think, while he's arguably the better player, there's not much argument whether he'd be a better fit for the current roster.

[nsacpi]

Phillip Ervin enters stage right.

[Super]

Phillip Ervin enters stage right.

i am v interested in him

[Buzzworm]

Phillip Ervin enters stage right.

I like him a lot compared to someone like Almonte.
40 is full now

[UNCBlue012]

Phillip Ervin enters stage right.

I like it: Good speed, good arm, solid fielder, decent raw power, and a solid hit tool.

[Heyward]

Lamb deal still not official yet but plenty of guys to release to make room for him.

[jpx7]

Phillip Ervin enters stage right.

I’d prefer it if he were batting from the left.

[bravesfanMatt]

Are we ervin trying anymore. This phils like a desperation move.

Puns off.

[Hudson2]

Can never have to many options and depth. If you throw enough $hit against the wall some of it is going to stick.

[UNCBlue012]

Passan: Seattle Mariners CEO Kevin Mather has resigned.

[bravesfanMatt]

Can never have to many options and depth. If you throw enough $hit against the wall some of it is going to stick.

Or you have a bunch of **** everywhere.

[Mad Dog Murph]

Or you have a bunch of **** everywhere.

This isn’t Philadelphia

[Russ2dollas]

I’d prefer it if he were batting from the left.

I don't. I think we need a RH hitter more than anything.

I think Lamb and Kipnis are our best bench bats at this time. Ender can't hit, but he's much better vs RH. Snit never PH the back up catcher. That leaves you with Comargo and Ervin who are better vs LH.

I like this guy for a minimum guy. Seems like he was decent hitter before last year. Seems to mash LH. Could play the original Duvall role.

[Enscheff]

It's done. Demeritte cleared waivers and is now on the Gwinnett roster. I was just critiquing clvclv's suggestion of Dustin Fowler.

To earlier points about Smyly, while I'm not in love with the signing, I can see the logic behind adding both him and Morton. Question will always be on price. At the time they were signed, I thought Anthopoulos jumped the market but in retrospect both deals fall within the expected range. For me, the issue gets to be the offense and I may be one of the only folks worried about it, but I think there are question marks there if d'Arnaud and Ozuna (and to some extent Swanson) don't repeat their 2020 performance.

It's fair to project regression for most of the Braves offense.

Acuna: unlucky BABIP of .302 should improve, but the HR/FB rate of 32% almost certainly regresses. The end result is probably a higher BA and lower SLG than 2020...roughly even overall. If he puts together a fluky season with a .370 BABIP and a 30% HR/FB rate, he wins the MVP award.

Freeman: BABIP of .366 was almost a career high, but the BB rate was way up. If that's new Freeman he may not regress much if the BABIP stays around his career .340 mark. We already saw what he needs to do to win an MVP...just get a little lucky.

Ozuna: BABIP of .391, HR/FB of 26.5% both due for regression. We likely saw Ozuna's career year, so expect an OPS drop of ~.150 in 2021.

TDA: BABIP of .411, HR/FB of 25.7%..expect significant regression for both numbers. Expect an OPS drop similar to Ozuna's for TDA.

Swanson: BABIP of .350 (career .307), so I expect a drop of 20+ points in the BA/OBP, but similar power numbers.

Riley: Nothing out of line for him, though I expect him to make progress into an average MLB hitter, something like .250/.320/.450 if he plays everyday, better if he platoons.

Albies: I expect a healthy Albies to be much better than he was in 2020, the only guy due for significant positive change in offensive output.

Overall the offense will likely take a significant step back, while the rotation is hopefully much better. The Braves were a 94/95 win team last year, and I expect them to be a 90-95 win team in 2021.

[CyYoung31]

I like Ervin. Always been intrigued by him. I didn’t keep up much, why did he not perform like a 1st round pick in Cincinnati?