Projections for Luiz Gohara - 2018 season

[thethe]

What do we make of Gohara's performance at the big leagues last season?

W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR

1 3 0 5 5 29.1 9.51 2.45 0.61 .366 61.8 % 35.4 % 5.6 % 4.91 2.75 4.05 1.0


1. The K/9 is actually a bit down from the minor league season but this seems like a reasonable baseball for his performance next year. Prediction: 10
2. The BB/9 is better than his minor league performance but we chalk this one up to better umpiring. AMRITE? Either way, Gohara seemed to demonstrate excellent control/command on all of his pitches. Again a good baseline but I would expect a little regression in this number. Prediction: 3
3. BABIP indicated some bad luck at the major league level when coupled with a LD rate of 20.7. Expect this to regress to the mean. Prediction .320
4. ERA was inflated due to bad luck with BABIP. Even still, I don't expect Gohara to be anywhere close to sub 3 yet. Prediction: 3.3
5. Extrapolating last years WAR number gives Gohara anywhere from a 6-7 WAR. Lets just say thats an aggressive projection. Prediction: 5

So what does that mean? Including Jimmy Nelson (4.9) there were only 8 pitchers that achieved that threshold last season and 8 the year before (Kluber 4.9). Will we see a correction of the baseballs and more pitchers dominate next season? Is it completely unrealistic to think Gohara could perform like a top 10 pitcher next season?

I look forward to all the posts about how absurd I am but I think you guys are expecting this from me when it comes to Bravse baseball (And other things of course).

[bravesguy]

5. Extrapolating last years WAR number gives Gohara anywhere from a 6-7 WAR. Lets just say thats an aggressive projection. Prediction: 5

.

I think this is exactly what we get fro Gohara. I think he is the young, stuff guy that takes MLB by storm (but doesn't last as long as the rest). I look forward to the next 5 years of Gohara followed by letting him walk at FA. I think the CC comps are pretty good. He will dominate for a few years, so much so that he demands a contract that he will not fulfill the next 5 years.

I can't wait for a Gohara, Folty, Tehran, Newcomb, Fried rotation next year. I think the 4 of them will have good years.

[nsacpi]

I take the under on 5 WAR. He had some luck on the home run per fly rate. I also think he is a higher injury risk than most pitchers. Still a great prospect.

[Enscheff]

I have him conservatively projected at 3 wins. He is definitely the one pitcher the Braves have capable of going off for 5+ wins though.

[Russ2dollas]

2 wins if last years version
3 if he can throw change up 10x a game

5 if he has an avg change up

[BeanieAntics]

2 wins if last years version
3 if he can throw change up 10x a game

5 if he has an avg change up

An average changeup with average command and Gohara would be an ace. There is no doubt in my mind. I even think he could be an ace with average command and just using the changeup enough to have it in the back of a RHH's mind.