Stanton

[BeanieAntics]

I can’t remember what I calculated his surplus value to be exactly, but I’m guessing around $50M. The centerpiece for Ozuna alone will be a FV 55 position prospect ($38M) or a FV 60 pitching prospect ($34M).

The only 2 pitchers of that quality the Braves possess are Gohara and Wright. Gohara is close to untouchable, and Wright should be. The Braves don’t have a single FV 55 position prospect to spare.

The key to the Braves getting Ozuna for a lesser prospect package is to also take another of Miami’s bad contracts like Prado or Tazawa. Since their main goal is to cut payroll, that’s something they will be interested in. Tazawa is probably worth negative $5M-$7M, and Prado is probably also negative by at least that amount.

Taking Prado and/or Tazawa in a package with Ozuna could get the cost down to something centered around a FV 55 pitching prospect ($22M). Maybe the Marlins like Camargo as a cost controlled position player.

I could see something like Ozuna/Prado/Tazawa ($35M surplus value) for Allard/Camargo/filler....if the Braves can afford to take on that much salary. They are at $93M now, so if they dump MAdams, and dump Markakis, they can add those 3 salaries and be right around $110M. No, the Marlins will not be interested taking MAdams or Markakis as part of any trade.

AA is exactly the GM who could orchestrate a massive swap like that.

I wonder if we could avoid taking on Tazawa for a similarly valued package? Ozuna/Prado for Allard/Camargo plus something just above filler maybe? I would do a swap like that in a heartbeat

[Enscheff]

I wonder if we could avoid taking on Tazawa for a similarly valued package? Ozuna/Prado for Allard/Camargo plus something just above filler maybe? I would do a swap like that in a heartbeat

There are probably a dozen variations that could work. The main structure being Ozuna plus some amount of negative contract value for a package centered around a FV 55 pitcher.

That pitcher might not be Allard, he’s just the one I would prefer to trade. The Marlins may not want Camargo. They might prefer a more MLB ready pitcher in addition to the pitching prospect...like Newk. Who knows, but that’s the framework of how an Ozuna trade would have to work out for the Braves.

[brian22]

Newk's control issues concern me. If you'd prefer to trade Allard over him, that has me concerned for Allard too.

[thethe]

Think newk showed the stuff of a TOR starter. Not ready to trade him. While it would hurt to trade allard you have to give up something.

[Enscheff]

Newk's control issues concern me. If you'd prefer to trade Allard over him, that has me concerned for Allard too.

Allard plus Newk. Allard is more valuable than Newk. I’m guessing the Marlins will want guys who are MLB ready on opening day, so I think guys like Fried, Newk and Camargo may hold value to them.

An Ozuna trade will almost certainly take one of Soroka/Allard as the centerpiece, and I would prefer to give up Allard. Of course, the Marlins may prefer Soroka for the same reasons. Those are the only 2 premium guys the Braves have to offer that are even remotely expendable.

On the flip side, it may be a year early to trade a talent like Allard/Soroka for only 2 years of Ozuna, so this whole idea may be a bit outlandish. Upgrading LF can’t be done without also upgrading 3b, and probably not without upgrading the BP as well. It doesn’t make sense to spend the prospect capital unless the team is pushing all the way towards 85+ wins.

[JxnMissFan]

Allard plus Newk. Allard is more valuable than Newk. I’m guessing the Marlins will want guys who are MLB ready on opening day, so I think guys like Fried, Newk and Camargo may hold value to them.

An Ozuna trade will almost certainly take one of Soroka/Allard as the centerpiece, and I would prefer to give up Allard. Of course, the Marlins may prefer Soroka for the same reasons. Those are the only 2 premium guys the Braves have to offer that are even remotely expendable.

On the flip side, it may be a year early to trade a talent like Allard/Soroka for only 2 years of Ozuna, so this whole idea may be a bit outlandish. Upgrading LF can’t be done without also upgrading 3b, and probably not without upgrading the BP as well. It doesn’t make sense to spend the prospect capital unless the team is pushing all the way towards 85+ wins.

I think to show goodwill to the fans Liberty Media should just give the team an extra 30 million for the next ten years so we can get Stanton.

[Enscheff]

Exactly this...

Matt
1:00 Regarding what you think the Marlins *will* do with Stanton: what do you think they *should* do?
Dave Cameron
1:01 Offer to eat a bunch of the end of the contract in exchange for better prospects, then hope he opts out and you don't have to eat any of that anyway.

[cajunrevenge]

I laughed so hard when they have him that contract. Would be amazing if they turn that into a huge positive like that. I would be surprised if Stanton isn't what Matt Kemp is now in 5 years.

[thethe]

Camargo killing it in winter league ball (SS alert)...

[Super]

I laughed so hard when they have him that contract. Would be amazing if they turn that into a huge positive like that. I would be surprised if Stanton isn't what Matt Kemp is now in 5 years.

Stanton is a much, much better hitter who doesn't rely on his feet at all. Also a better athlete.

[Horsehide Harry]

Exactly this...

Matt
1:00 Regarding what you think the Marlins *will* do with Stanton: what do you think they *should* do?
Dave Cameron
1:01 Offer to eat a bunch of the end of the contract in exchange for better prospects, then hope he opts out and you don't have to eat any of that anyway.

So you're saying Enscheff IS Dave Cameron

[Enscheff]

So you're saying Enscheff IS Dave Cameron

I’m saying he steals most his ideas from me, obviously.

[Horsehide Harry]

Just thinking about Marlins and Stanton.

Obviously Stanton holds a lot of the cards and this could severely limit what the M's are able to do.

But, what if they shifted gears entirely and said we are keeping Stanton but cutting payroll elsewhere. They have some valuable assets that would be worth quite a bit on the open market such as: Yelich, Ozuna, Dietrich, Realmuto, Bour, Straily, Urena, maybe Zeigler.

They've got some contracts that can't be moved under any circumstances: Volquez (TJ), Chen (one of the worst contracts in baseball)

They've got a couple of players with limited value and significant contracts who can't be moved for anything of value and maybe would required compensation going the other way (cash or reduced ask in trade as part of package): Prado, Tazawa, Gordon, maybe Zeigler.

If they moved Ozuna, Yelich, Realmuto, Bour and Strailey and attached Prado, Tazawa, Gordon and Zeigler, they would cut about $70M of 2018 payroll and a significant amount in years beyond. If they could survive moving all those players but keeping Zeigler, Tazawa and Prado they still cut about $40M in 2018 payroll then would lose another $14 with Zeigler and Tazawa gone after 2018 (Prado has another year, commitment going up by $1.5M to $15M). That would allow them to better maximize the return coming back.

That strategy would put Stanton in the "Dale Murphy" position on a rebuilding team. Then, if you are the Marlins, you ride his contract out until he opts out after 2020 OR, more likely, Stanton changes his tune and allows himself to be traded to virtually anywhere that's a winner. The downside for the Fish would be if Stanton got hurt, maybe a career ending or severely diminishing injury, which leads him to never opt out for any reason or that his performance falls off to the point hwere his value is diminished.

[UNCBlue012]

I would be incredibly interested in Yelich or Ozuna.

Probably more-so Yelich because the price of a power hitter like Ozuna would just be insane. We'd probably have to take on a contract like Prado, as well.

Lineup construction could go several ways, but Inciarte CF, Albies 2B, Freeman 1B, Acuna LF, Yelich RF, Prado 3B, Flowers C, Swanson SS, Pitcher would be insanely good.

[Enscheff]

Latest tweet from Morosi claims Panik plus Beede plus Shaw to the Marlins would get Stanton plus $45M to the Giants.

If the money is after the opt out/in this is almost exactly the type of deal I expected to see.

[Enscheff]

Giants execs meeting with Stanton reps in LA. I imagine this is a good indication a trade is close.

[bravesfanMatt]

I like it.

[Hudson2]

Yelich and Frazier would go a long way to getting the offense fixed.

[chop2chip]

Yelich and Frazier would go a long way to getting the offense fixed.

Now there's a contract I'm sure the Braves could eat.

[UNCBlue012]

Yelich and Frazier would go a long way to getting the offense fixed.

Yes please!

Inciarte CF
Albies 2B
Freeman 1B
Frazier 3B
Yelich LF
Acuna RF
Flowers C
Swanson SS

I'm guessing Acuna is moved up in the lineup pretty quickly, but that's a great place to start. Plus, he can go crazy with the RBI's there.