2017 Winter Meetings Predictions, Rumors, And Actual Happenings

[50PoundHead]

I wonder if a rebuilding team would ever sign a FA whose value has been depressed by the QO with the idea to just turn around and trade him.

So, for instance, the Braves are one of 16 revenue sharing teams and didn't exceed the luxury tax threshold so they would give up their third highest pick in the draft (since the Braves don't have a 3rd rounder, I would guess it would be the 2nd highest pick in this case).

MLBTR projects the Braves to sign MM for a 5 year $85M contract. But it's debatable as to the need. But what if MM's market became depressed because of the attachment of the QO and his market was ~ 4 years, $68M. What would you think if the Braves signed him to that contract, gave up the second round pick, with the intention of trading him at first available opportunity (say trade deadline) to someone like the Giants for something along the lines of OF Heliot Ramos.

The approach would net the Giants that they coveted (assuming they don't address the position in a better way), would save them the pick, would get them MM at a deflated rate (because only reason for Braves to sign him). The Braves would give up a second round pick of unknown ultimate value and also pay MM for some time while taking advantage of his play but would gain a better known quantity in 1st round pick Ramos all without paying his bonus.

Of course this couldn't be worked out in advance. And the initial target team when you originated the move may change over time. Plus, it's a gamble, because you could end up stuck with the guy OR he could play so well that you could find it politically difficult to move him at all.

But, I see it as an edge area where a smart team that is willing and able to gamble a bit MIGHT retrieve a big benefit.

Too much risk.

[Enscheff]

I wonder if a rebuilding team would ever sign a FA whose value has been depressed by the QO with the idea to just turn around and trade him.

So, for instance, the Braves are one of 16 revenue sharing teams and didn't exceed the luxury tax threshold so they would give up their third highest pick in the draft (since the Braves don't have a 3rd rounder, I would guess it would be the 2nd highest pick in this case).

MLBTR projects the Braves to sign MM for a 5 year $85M contract. But it's debatable as to the need. But what if MM's market became depressed because of the attachment of the QO and his market was ~ 4 years, $68M. What would you think if the Braves signed him to that contract, gave up the second round pick, with the intention of trading him at first available opportunity (say trade deadline) to someone like the Giants for something along the lines of OF Heliot Ramos.

The approach would net the Giants that they coveted (assuming they don't address the position in a better way), would save them the pick, would get them MM at a deflated rate (because only reason for Braves to sign him). The Braves would give up a second round pick of unknown ultimate value and also pay MM for some time while taking advantage of his play but would gain a better known quantity in 1st round pick Ramos all without paying his bonus.

Of course this couldn't be worked out in advance. And the initial target team when you originated the move may change over time. Plus, it's a gamble, because you could end up stuck with the guy OR he could play so well that you could find it politically difficult to move him at all.

But, I see it as an edge area where a smart team that is willing and able to gamble a bit MIGHT retrieve a big benefit.

Why would the Giants give up a top prospect for Mous when they could have just signed him for 4/69 and given up picks who will almost certainly be used to draft players worse than the prospect they gave up?

Why would any team take on $68M in risk just to hopefully trade a guy?

The value of the draft picks is valued into the contract Mous will get. Someone will sign him to play 3b once that price is determined.

[Oklahomabrave]

Why would the Giants give up a top prospect for Mous when they could have just signed him for 4/69 and given up picks who will almost certainly be used to draft players worse than the prospect they gave up?

Why would any team take on $68M in risk just to hopefully trade a guy?

The value of the draft picks is valued into the contract Mous will get. Someone will sign him to play 3b once that price is determined.

Don’t love Moose, but at that price range I’d be tempted.

And yeah, huge comittmenrts with a trade in mind isn’t a great idea.

[Horsehide Harry]

Why would the Giants give up a top prospect for Mous when they could have just signed him for 4/69 and given up picks who will almost certainly be used to draft players worse than the prospect they gave up?

Why would any team take on $68M in risk just to hopefully trade a guy?

The value of the draft picks is valued into the contract Mous will get. Someone will sign him to play 3b once that price is determined.

Under the scenario I laid out, the Giants get him without the cost of the pick,but also at a deflated rate (the scenario doesn't work if MM gets what everyone expects he should get, but if he gets less AAV and years then maybe). Also, as I said it wouldn't necessarily be for one team. It couldn't work like that. But, if the Giants are tied with the Dodgers at the break but badly need a 3B, then...

Why would they give up a prospect when they could have just given up a pick? Good question. But, they are about to possibly make a trade for a player who will cost prospects AND likely not be as good a player as MM. That doesn't make sense either when looked at with the same lens.

Let's say they trade for Longoria who's owed $86M (including option buy out) through 2022 and he costs them Ramos, Slater and Jacob Gonzalez. That certainly isn't better.

Longoria is 32 and been about a 3.5WAR guy over the last 4 years (age 28-31). MM is 28 and will probably be a 2-3 WAR player per year from 28-31. Longoria is in his age decline. MM is in his prime trending to age decline.

Teams do weird things. But, I think the Braves could sign MM and play him with the hope to be able to flip him at an advantage if the cost is right. If they can't they still have him at a position of need for 4 years at a deflated rate which wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

Won't happen but trying to look for advantage at the edges. It might not be there.

[Chico]

Defense. Defense. Defense. This has been the one consistent narrative by AA since hired. Let's assume this really is his main goal and not just preparing us to the fact we're going to have to eat money on Kemp and Markakis to gain some addition by subtraction.

Ender is Ender. Albies looks to be a plus plus defender as well. Dansby was still a top 10 caliber defender last year and that's with having the yipps for a while. I think he's ok. Freddie aint going anywhere. We're set at catcher for this year. Acuna will play one role in the OF and be a plus defender. So it's still back to LF and 3B.

At 3B the best option we could hope for is Eugenio Suarez. He's a plus defender and bat. Frazier is also a good defender, but his defense could start to slip quick at 31. He graded out negatively in 2016. Gyorko has been a plus defender since moving to 3B. There are rumors Josh Harrison could be shopped and he's played plus defense at 3B as well. Good ole Prado is another plus defender at 3B, but much like Frazier could start to slip. I'm not sure on Moose. His Defense has been on a decline even if you count last year as an anomoly due to injury.

For players who strictly play LF you have Alex Gordon and Brett Gardner at the top and then you have Adam Duvall. I was surprised to find that out to be honest. There aren't really many good defensive LF'ers. Out of the CF'ers and RF'ers who could play LF JBJ is the best choice. He could be a plus plus plus defender in LF and form one hell of a defensive OF wih Ender and Acuna. Yelich is also a plus defender as well as Pham and Grichuk from the Cards. Piscotty and Joc have not graded out that well in RF and CF, but both could be a plus defender in LF.

If we were going to make a trade to take care of both needs a Suarez/Duvall deal with the Reds, Gyorko/Piscotty deal with the cards or a Prado/Yelich deal with the Marlins makes the most sense.

[striker42]

AA was on 680 The Fan this morning. Said he's had trade talks but really only about guys on our major league roster
He knows more about those guys. He's reluctant to discuss minor leaguers because he doesn't know enough about them yet.

Also said Acuna is likely to start the year in AAA.

[Chico]

AA was on 680 The Fan this morning. Said he's had trade talks but really only about guys on our major league roster
He knows more about those guys. He's reluctant to discuss minor leaguers because he doesn't know enough about them yet.

Also said Acuna is likely to start the year in AAA.

That’s good news on Acuna. I don’t know if that means keeping one of Nick and Kemp or getting a 4th OF who can hold down a corner OF spot for a few weeks.

[Super]

I really hope AA's #1 priority is somehow moving Kemp. I really do not want to see him play LF for this team again.

[UNCBlue012]

https://twitter.com/jim_bowdensxm/st...76617763692544

[thethe]

https://twitter.com/jim_bowdensxm/st...76617763692544

Can only pray he knows what he's talking about.

[Jaw]

I really hope AA's #1 priority is somehow moving Kemp. I really do not want to see him play LF for this team again.

I turned off most of the games I tried to watch because of Kemp. It's just too frustrating to watch routine fly balls go for doubles.

[clvclv]

An interesting note that some have conveniently avoided mentioning thus far...

"While he wouldn’t rule out some notable moves, “I would say my thought for Year 1 would be a more cautious approach,” Anthopoulos said. He also believed that the Braves’ payroll would likely remain around the $130MM mark."


https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...nd-harvey.html

I have no idea WHERE he's going to spend ~ $39 million (particularly if we're "out" on Moose), but that would be how much he has even if he can't move Kemp or Markakis and doesn't trade Julio.

[striker42]

I really hope AA's #1 priority is somehow moving Kemp. I really do not want to see him play LF for this team again.

He was asked point blank about Kemp. His response was very evasive. Just said how Kemp still has something in the tank if he can stay healthy. It's just about keeping him healthy. I got the feeling they want to move him to a team where he can DH.

[Chico]

I think he's still focused on trading Kemp and Nick. Everything he has said helps him in whatever trades he's discussing right now.

He's focused on Defense, not necessarily that he doesn't value Nick or Kemp
Acuna will start in AAA so he doesn't have to trade either of them right now as has been reported
We have money to spend, so there's no reason he has to trade either of them to free up cash
He's focused on trading from the major league roster because that's who he knows, not necessarily who he wants to get rid of.

[50PoundHead]

He was asked point blank about Kemp. His response was very evasive. Just said how Kemp still has something in the tank if he can stay healthy. It's just about keeping him healthy. I got the feeling they want to move him to a team where he can DH.

I just think at Kemp's current weight, it is going to be difficult for him to stay healthy. Kemp has the problem in that if he works too hard to get into better shape, he probably winds up injuring himself in the process. Sad to see. I'll admit I missed badly on him because I thought he could at least play below average defense.

[nsacpi]

I just think at Kemp's current weight, it is going to be difficult for him to stay healthy. Kemp has the problem in that if he works too hard to get into better shape, he probably winds up injuring himself in the process. Sad to see. I'll admit I missed badly on him because I thought he could at least play below average defense.

There are low impact workouts that would help someone like him. He needs a plan involving that and a nutritionist.

And on the team's side, there has to be an understanding he doesn't play day games after night games. And he should be replaced in the 8th or 9th inning of any game we are ahead.

If we are smart about limiting the downside, I think we can have a semi-productive rotation in left. That would include Muk playing some there once Acuna is up.

[50PoundHead]

There are low impact workouts that would help someone like him. He needs a plan involving that and a nutritionist.

And on the team's side, there has to be an understanding he doesn't play day games after night games. And he should be replaced in the 8th or 9th inning of any game we are ahead.

If we are smart about limiting the downside, I think we can have a semi-productive rotation in left. That would include Muk playing some there once Acuna is up.

But finger food only. He might pull a muscle lifting a fork. I keed. I keed. He needs some pretty intensive work.

[Chico]

I was all about hoping Kemp was going to slim down and be passable in LF for his bat to be in the cleanup spot, but if you're a professional athlete who can't keep from gaining weight I have no patience for you.

[nsacpi]

Also said Acuna is likely to start the year in AAA.

What a revolutionary concept.

[nsacpi]

I was all about hoping Kemp was going to slim down and be passable in LF for his bat to be in the cleanup spot, but if you're a professional athlete who can't keep from gaining weight I have no patience for you.

He pulled the hamstring very early in the season on a very cold day. In Pittsburgh I believe. And I think it remained an issue throughout the season for him. There was a downward spiral from that.