BABIP Gods Smile on Braves

[bravesguy]

You're certainly not wrong about looking at the underlying batted ball profile before assuming luck, but when an entire team's BABIP is so high, the odds are high that it'll normalize.

This is what made me start questioning it.

I listened to a Kevin Sietzer interview during the snow delay and he stepped through the day in a life of a batting coach. Then they started asking him what he teaches questions.

The one that jumped out to me was when they asked him how he was teaching the guys more about exit velocity and launch angle? (the two biggest buzz stats of today)

He answered with a I don't. He said he works on swing with plate coverage and contact (increases exit velocity) and he teaches them to hit line drives.

Maybe he is correct with our current team makeup. If players like Ender, Albies, Swanson, Camargo, & Markakis try to improve their launch angle, they are going to hit a lot of deep fly balls (lowering their stats (specifically BABIP)). If he has convinced them to hit line drives, then they occasionally catch one to go deep (Markakis, Albies).

[bravesguy]

you're right...something called expected BABIP can be calculated

Does that stat exist for each player?

[mqt]

Does that stat exist for each player?

It does. I'm not 100% sure of anywhere it's calculated and displayed for free, though. Expected BABIP is based off of the batted ball data that obviously is tracked for each player.

[thewupk]

Does that stat exist for each player?

It's a work in progress as we get more data but it does exist. Not sure if information is out for this year yet.

[thewupk]

This is what made me start questioning it.

I listened to a Kevin Sietzer interview during the snow delay and he stepped through the day in a life of a batting coach. Then they started asking him what he teaches questions.

The one that jumped out to me was when they asked him how he was teaching the guys more about exit velocity and launch angle? (the two biggest buzz stats of today)

He answered with a I don't. He said he works on swing with plate coverage and contact (increases exit velocity) and he teaches them to hit line drives.

Maybe he is correct with our current team makeup. If players like Ender, Albies, Swanson, Camargo, & Markakis try to improve their launch angle, they are going to hit a lot of deep fly balls (lowering their stats (specifically BABIP)). If he has convinced them to hit line drives, then they occasionally catch one to go deep (Markakis, Albies).

The players themselves do factor into this. Freeman for example started hitting flyballs above 40% for the first time in 2016 and his power jumped tremendously. So someone like him would benefit the most from having an ideal launch angle. I assume Acuna will be the same way in time.

[GeorgiaGirl]

The funny thing is, Albies has unluckily been blessed with the BABIP curse Dansby had last year. He's been robbed of at least 3 hits, if not more. The not walking is not great, but since the bad loss to Washington his at bats have been much, much better.

For the most part though, BABIP has been helping a lot though.

[striker42]

Swanson's Francoeurean lack of BBs this year has been odd. I'm not worried as Dansby has always drawn his share of free passes. Just an odd start.

[nsacpi]

Swanson's Francoeurean lack of BBs this year has been odd. I'm not worried as Dansby has always drawn his share of free passes. Just an odd start.

some of it is a function of not hitting 8th...Flaherty has been getting those walks...samples too small anyhow to mean much

[Enscheff]

xwOBA covers all this luck vs skill discussion.

Suffice it to say, the Braves will not hit nearly this well all season, so let’s enjoy the good furtune now. When they score 3 runs in 6 games over some stretch later this year there will be a complete flip flop in the discussion.

[thethe]

I blame you Nsacpi.

Schrodinger

[msstate7]

I blame you Nsacpi.

Schrodinger

Despite the ball not falling for us, we should’ve won had every call not gone against us. I think last night goes to show we can play with good teams without having an inflated BABIP

[nsacpi]

I blame you Nsacpi.

Schrodinger

my powers are even more vast than you realize

[nsacpi]

BABIP already starting to normalize just two games after the OP. We are no longer the high BABIP team in the majors.

[Enscheff]

Braves are currently #2 in BABIP at .325.

They will regress towards the same .305 value they had in 2016 and 2017, and the offense will suffer as a result.

I feel like we have this same discussion over and over, yet folks keep saying the same incorrect things time and time again.

[msstate7]

Braves are currently #2 in BABIP at .325.

They will regress towards the same .305 value they had in 2016 and 2017, and the offense will suffer as a result.

I feel like we have this same discussion over and over, yet folks keep saying the same incorrect things time and time again.

If Swanson is indeed back and adding the speed of Albies and acuna, I bet the BABIP will be better than it was in 2016 and 2017.

[Southcack77]

Sort of interesting to see who dragged BABIP average down:

Matt Adams .294
Swanson .292
J. Peterson .279
Suzuki .268
S. Rodriguez .250
A. Garcia .247
D. Santana .243
R. Ruiz .231
E. Bonafacio .167

[thewupk]

Sort of interesting to see who dragged BABIP average down:

Matt Adams .294
Swanson .292
J. Peterson .279
Suzuki .268
S. Rodriguez .250
A. Garcia .247
D. Santana .243
R. Ruiz .231
E. Bonafacio .167

I wouldn't consider those two as dragging the BABIP down.

[Southcack77]

I wouldn't consider those two as dragging the BABIP down.

the team BABIP was .305 so they did.

[thewupk]

the team BABIP was .305 so they did.

I think what you mean to say is we had more players bring the average up. BABIP in the 290 range is well within the expected range for a player/team.

[nsacpi]

Sort of interesting to see who dragged BABIP average down:

Matt Adams .294
Swanson .292
J. Peterson .279
Suzuki .268
S. Rodriguez .250
A. Garcia .247
D. Santana .243
R. Ruiz .231
E. Bonafacio .167

there will ALWAYS be a subset of the lineup dragging the average down