GDT 4/6 - Coors Lights- Return of the SUZUKI

[thewupk]

Because it's quick and dirty. Here are OPS splits from batting position for last year across MLB.

4th 805
5th 779
6th 748
7th 735
8th 707

And as a group the 4-8 spots posted a 756 OPS

I suppose it depends where guys end up slotted there but I can see some of our hitters outdoing that. As a nervous Swanson believer I feel he will be better than average in the 7th or 8th spots. I feel Acuna would likely be average in the 4 hole but above average everywhere else.

[bravesguy]

Could Preston Tucker be for real? If so, could he be the 4 hole hitter?
What will Swanson actually become?

I see Acuna higher in the order.

Albies, Acuna, Freeman, Tucker?, Swanson, Ender, Carmargo, Suzuki

[Southcack77]

Could Preston Tucker be for real? If so, could he be the 4 hole hitter?
What will Swanson actually become?

I see Acuna higher in the order.

Albies, Acuna, Freeman, Tucker?, Swanson, Ender, Carmargo, Suzuki

What's for real? .260/.330 25 HRs is probably about the ceiling for 600 PA.

His most likely result is probably something below that.

[bravesguy]

What's for real? .260/.330 25 HRs is probably about the ceiling for 600 PA.

His most likely result is probably something below that.

That is about a .780 OPS w/ 25HR. Beats the hell out of Nick at the 4 spot.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Because it's quick and dirty. Here are OPS splits from batting position for last year across MLB.

4th 805
5th 779
6th 748
7th 735
8th 707

And as a group the 4-8 spots posted a 756 OPS

I suppose it depends where guys end up slotted there but I can see some of our hitters outdoing that. As a nervous Swanson believer I feel he will be better than average in the 7th or 8th spots. I feel Acuna would likely be average in the 4 hole but above average everywhere else.

Swanson would have to have another really bad year not to match that 8 spot

[nsacpi]

For someone who normally has a good understanding of sample size, you sure did give up on Swanson awfully fast.

I haven't given up on him. I think he will be a .700-.750 OPS player this season.

[bravesfanMatt]

I haven't given up on him. I think he will be a .700-.750 OPS player this season.

.751

[msstate7]

.751

Dang right lol

[nsacpi]

Because it's quick and dirty. Here are OPS splits from batting position for last year across MLB.

4th 805
5th 779
6th 748
7th 735
8th 707

And as a group the 4-8 spots posted a 756 OPS

I suppose it depends where guys end up slotted there but I can see some of our hitters outdoing that. As a nervous Swanson believer I feel he will be better than average in the 7th or 8th spots. I feel Acuna would likely be average in the 4 hole but above average everywhere else.

By comparison here is what I would expect from our guys

4. Acuna .780
5. Markakis .740 (I think Tucker is a slightly better hitter, around .760 but significantly worse defender)
6. Flowers/Suzuki .740
7. Camargo .720
8. Swanson .720 (which when you average with the scrubs who will be hitting here fairly often will come out to .700 or slightly less from the 8 spot).

[msstate7]

By comparison here is what I would expect from our guys

4. Acuna .780
5. Markakis .740 (I think Tucker is a slightly better hitter, around .760 but significantly worse defender)
6. Flowers/Suzuki .740
7. Camargo .720
8. Swanson .720

I think you are low on acuna and swanson

[nsacpi]

Dang right lol

did you pay him to say that

[nsacpi]

I think you are low on acuna and swanson

I hope you're right. I wouldn't mind losing the Swanson bet.

[nsacpi]

Swanson would have to have another really bad year not to match that 8 spot

.636 last year. He could improve a lot and not match it.

[BeanieAntics]

By comparison here is what I would expect from our guys

4. Acuna .780
5. Markakis .740 (I think Tucker is a slightly better hitter, around .760 but significantly worse defender)
6. Flowers/Suzuki .740
7. Camargo .720
8. Swanson .720 (which when you average with the scrubs who will be hitting here fairly often will come out to .700 or slightly less from the 8 spot).

But is Tucker significantly worse than Nick defensively? Nick has been pretty bad defensively lately. Over a full season what would Tucker be according to Fangraph's Def score? Minus 10-12? Markakis last year was -9.7 and two years before that was -11.3. I'm a little higher on Tucker's bat than most. I think he could hit that .800 OPS mark or come close to it. I could see him having a .270/.340/.460 type year. If he can pull that off, I think the offense you gain from him makes up for the defense you lose by sitting Nick.

[nsacpi]

Tucker's gonna get plenty of ABs as 4th outfielder/DH/primary bench bat. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do. It is worth keeping in mind that he put up an OPS of .798 in AAA last year. In a fairly large sample of PAs (500). That's his baseline for me. Not his spring training numbers. Not the small sample size of 7 games this year. And then consider he is going from the PCL to the majors. Anyone know what the standard haircut is to PCL stats to get a major league equivalent? I believe it is more than 10%.

Going back to 2015 (pre injury) he did put up a .734 OPS in Houston in 323 PAs.

Slice and dice it however you want but I think it is a stretch to project a .800 OPS for him.

[nsacpi]

Today's lineup has Swanson 6th, Flaherty 7 and Perez 8th. It kind of illustrates the challenges when you have a weak hitting bench. Even if your regular 6-8 hitters match major league production, whenever the scrubs get brought in you end up needing to make up some ground. Most teams have better hitters on their bench. Flaherty has been great so far, but these things even out over the season.

[thethe]

Today's lineup has Swanson 6th, Flaherty 7 and Perez 8th. It kind of illustrates the challenges when you have a weak hitting bench. Even if your regular 6-8 hitters match major league production, whenever the scrubs get brought in you end up needing to make up some ground. Most teams have better hitters on their bench. Flaherty has been great so far, but these things even out over the season.

But Perez is going to be either flowers or suzuki.

Then either bourjos or Adams is going to be tucker or markakis.

Team is going to improve.

[nsacpi]

But Perez is going to be either flowers or suzuki.

Then either bourjos or Adams is going to be tucker or markakis.

Team is going to improve.

once Tucker is on the bench the situation will improve

[Heyward]

Could Preston Tucker be for real? If so, could he be the 4 hole hitter?
What will Swanson actually become?

I see Acuna higher in the order.

Albies, Acuna, Freeman, Tucker?, Swanson, Ender, Carmargo, Suzuki

I'd go Ender, Ozzie, Freeman, Acuna so Freddie has protection and teams have to actually pitch to him.

[Braves1976]

Soroka and Gohara are the keys imo...even with their youth and inexperience they are our best hopes for putting together an above average pitching staff this year

As for the rest, I also am a skeptic on Newk. Sanchez was a good pickup and will probably be an ok fifth starter. He won't make or break the pitching staff.

I think Teheran will figure things out. And I lean slightly optimistic on Folty and McCarthy.

Imo our pitching will be slightly above average this year. Both for relievers and starters.

What makes you think Sanchez will bounce back after being so bad the last few years? He had an ERA over 6 last season. I think he would make a decent long man and hope he's not in the 5th spot long. I agree with you on Teheran, though I could see him still having issues at home. I think McCarthy will be fine as long as he stays healthy. That is the main concern I have with him.