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Thread: Trade Speculation

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think we will take on substantial salary next year. I'd rather do it with players who can contribute in the wins and losses columns rather than someone like Butler. Candidates I have in mind include Kemp, Braun and McCann among trade targets, and Prado, Freese and Ian Desmond among FA targets. The trade targets should not cost too much in terms of talent because they carry large salaries that absorb most if not all of their surplus value.
    I hadn't considered Desmond as a target, but he does make an interesting fit. He could man SS early in 2017 until Swanson and/or Albies are ready, and then slide over to 3B when they do come up. If he has a QO attached I don't think he would be worth it though. In the event Desmond is offered and turns down a QO I would rather see them target Freese or Prado for 3B.

    Cervelli will almost certainly have a QO attached, but I think he would be worth giving up a low-40s pick to sign to a 3-4 year deal. I greatly prefer signing Cervelli to a 4/50-60 deal (age 31-34 seasons) and giving up a mid-40s pick to trading for Mac and his 3/49 contract (age 33-35 seasons).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Theduke81 View Post
    I am not a fan of trading for Braun or kemp. They are getting older, lost some defensive value and are owed a lot of money for several more years. I know we are desperate for RH power but let's not make a mistake that will limit our options when we should compete.
    I like the fact both are on deals that would only go three more years (with a fourth year option in Braun's case). There is less risk than with a longer deal. It would be for his ages 32-34 seasons in Kemp's case and his ages 33-35 seasons in Braun's case. Those are declining years and we should apply the appropriate aging curve in calculating what we offer for them. I think Braun is more of a long shot given his PED record and the Braves' likely aversion to taking on players with that kind of baggage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I hadn't considered Desmond as a target, but he does make an interesting fit. He could man SS early in 2017 until Swanson and/or Albies are ready, and then slide over to 3B when they do come up. If he has a QO attached I don't think he would be worth it though. In the event Desmond is offered and turns down a QO I would rather see them target Freese or Prado for 3B.

    Cervelli will almost certainly have a QO attached, but I think he would be worth giving up a low-40s pick to sign to a 3-4 year deal. I greatly prefer signing Cervelli to a 4/50-60 deal (age 31-34 seasons) and giving up a mid-40s pick to trading for Mac and his 3/49 contract (age 33-35 seasons).
    McCann has only two years after this season, plus a club option for 2019 at 15M that becomes a player's option with reasonably strong performance and durability in the prior two years. Cervelli is two years younger, and hasn't had as heavy a workload. My guess is he gets five years guaranteed. And probably a higher AAV than the 17M that McCann is due in 2017 and 2018. I like the risk-return profile on McCann a bit better.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-10-2016 at 04:12 PM.

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    I like the Oakland deal. Butler won't be anything here, we just want him for the pool money and draft pick. Super smart business move. As for the Teheran deal, it's not terrible but I'd rather take one stud player back or maybe 2 rather 4 so so guys. Benditini is the one I'd target and see if they bite, even straight up I'd do it. That would make Mallex and maybe Inciarte expendable in a year to acquire more pieces. Colorado is the other team I'd look hard at for a Teheran deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think we will take on substantial salary next year. I'd rather do it with players who can contribute in the wins and losses columns rather than someone like Butler. Candidates I have in mind include Kemp, Braun and McCann among trade targets, and Prado, Freese and Ian Desmond among FA targets. The trade targets should not cost too much in terms of talent because they carry large salaries that absorb most if not all of their surplus value.
    I was the first on here to ask about Butler in the original thread and then thought better of it. I agree with you on that and I do think it will effect 2017, how much is up for debate. But I also have no interest in Kemp or Braun, I'd be asking about Myers from the Padres instead and offering some of our pitching for him. I prefer Cervelli to Mac at this point all things considered and agree with you on Prado, Freese and Desmond depending on QO's, etc.

    It isn't out of the question that we could field a playoff team next year with a few slick moves in trades and free agency. If you add Cervelli at catcher, Albies and Swanson and possibly Desmond and/or Prado. Myers via trade to go with Smith and Inciarte. Then build a nice bench and bullpen (bullpen can mostly be done from returning pitchers and prospects advancing to Majors). This could work if done right, now trusting the FO to do it right is another story. The hard part will be the starting rotation, esp. if you trade Teheran and Chacin.
    Last edited by Braves1976; 05-10-2016 at 05:31 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Braves1976 View Post
    I was the first on here to ask about Butler in the original thread and then thought better of it. I agree with you on that and I do think it will effect 2017, how much is up for debate. But I also have no interest in Kemp or Braun, I'd be asking about Myers from the Padres instead and offering some of our pitching for him. I prefer Cervelli to Mac at this point all things considered and agree with you on Prado, Freese and Desmond depending on QO's, etc.

    It isn't out of the question that we could field a playoff team next year with a few slick moves in trades and free agency. If you add Cervelli at catcher, Albies and Swanson and possibly Desmond and/or Prado. Myers via trade to go with Smith and Inciarte. Then build a nice bench and bullpen (bullpen can mostly be done from returning pitchers and prospects advancing to Majors). This could work if done right, now trusting the FO to do it right is another story. The hard part will be the starting rotation, esp. if you trade Teheran and Chacin.
    and how would Butler affect any of this? We could literally cut him when we get him and it would not affect any of that scenario.. however, we would now be set up to have a once in a blue moon type of draft...

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    and how would Butler affect any of this? We could literally cut him when we get him and it would not affect any of that scenario.. however, we would now be set up to have a once in a blue moon type of draft...
    He would cost us ten million we could spend on the team for next year, more money always gives you more flexibility obviously.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    and how would Butler affect any of this? ...
    In a scenario where we add Kemp, McCann or Cervelli, Prado and a couple lesser pieces for the pen and bench, the 10M hypothetically being paid to Butler might be a limiting factor.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    In a scenario where we add Kemp, McCann or Cervelli, Prado and a couple lesser pieces for the pen and bench, the 10M hypothetically being paid to Butler might be a limiting factor.
    True. Plus a team like ours will need a strong bench. If we cut corners there you might as well call it another rebuild year. I am not ready to do that personally.

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    why not copy and paste the 2 deals and then link the rest of the dumb slideshow?

    Atlanta Braves Get: 1B/DH Billy Butler and the 37th overall pick in the 2016 MLB draft

    Oakland Athletics Get: A player to be named later



    The Rumor

    Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan tweeted that Atlanta "desperately" wants to acquire tradable draft picks and is willing to take on a bad contract to facilitate a deal. Per MLB.com, Oakland has the third pick in Lottery Round A, the 37th overall selection.



    Why It Makes Sense for the A's

    Billy Butler has become an expensive part-time player for Oakland, which would assuredly love to rid itself of the nearly $20 million he's still due through 2017.

    Unloading that salary is the primary motivation the A's have for making this deal, though as ESPN's Buster Olney notes, freeing up a bench spot for a more useful player would be a welcome change for A's manager Bob Melvin, who seemingly has no use for the player known as "Country Breakfast."



    Why It Makes Sense for the Braves

    Atlanta gets the draft pick it desires while adding a right-handed bat to the bench, one they'd likely cut after the season, eating the $10 million left on his deal. In the meantime, Butler would provide some insurance for Freddie Freeman at first base.
    and

    Atlanta Braves Get: LHP Trey Ball, 3B Michael Chavis, 1B/OF Nick Longhi and C Blake Swihart

    Boston Red Sox Get: RHP Julio Teheran



    The Rumor

    The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo heard that Julio Teheran's name is popping up in lots of front offices as someone who might be available before the trade deadline, noting that "Teheran should land [president of baseball operations John Hart] a haul" in return.



    Why It Makes Sense for the Braves

    Atlanta could hold out in the hopes a team will make the same mistake Arizona did and overpay for a good, but not great, young pitcher. But there's a better chance of the Braves playing next season at Turner Field than there is of such an offer coming along for Julio Teheran.

    That's not saying this is a bad deal for the Braves by any stretch, as they walk away with three potential everyday players, including one that's ready to make an immediate impact and another intriguing young arm to add to their growing stable of intriguing young arms.

    Blake Swihart is the centerpiece, an offensively gifted, switch-hitting 24-year-old catcher who continues to improve defensively. The Braves could plug him into the lineup immediately as the right-handed part of a platoon with A.J. Pierzynski, who would be a great mentor for the young backstop.

    Michael Chavis, 20, has everything teams look for in a third baseman—including the requisite power. While all his tools are still developing, and he's always going to have lots of swings and misses in his game, Chavis projects as a 20- to 25-home run hitter who provides average defense at the hot corner.

    Nick Longhi may not seem like an ideal fit with the Braves, considering Freddie Freeman is entrenched at first base, but the 20-year-old is athletic enough to handle an outfield corner and has the strong arm needed to fill the void in right field.

    Trey Ball hasn't quite lived up to expectations since Boston made him the seventh-overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft, but the 6'6" 21-year-old is still young enough to make the adjustments needed for him to reach his ceiling as a front-of-the-rotation arm. At worst, he's a durable, reliable back-end starter.



    Why It Makes Sense for the Red Sox

    Julio Teheran's fly-ball tendencies don't make him a perfect fit at Fenway Park, but that's hardly a reason for Boston to pass on the chance to add a controllable, experienced, 25-year-old starter that is under team control through 2020 for roughly $40 million.

    And while the price to acquire him is high, so is the upside.

    Teheran has bounced back from a down 2015 (4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) with a 3.48 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over seven starts while striking out nearly a batter per inning, looking far more like the pitcher that posted a combined 3.03 ERA and 1.12 WHIP from 2013 to 2014.

    He's also proven himself durable, averaging 32 starts and 202 innings a year since 2013. For a Boston rotation that needs another legitimate, front-of-the-rotation arm, Teheran would be an excellent addition, even if he gets taken deep a bit more often than you'd like.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    In a scenario where we add Kemp, McCann or Cervelli, Prado and a couple lesser pieces for the pen and bench, the 10M hypothetically being paid to Butler might be a limiting factor.
    you are looking at around 90 million plus Butler's 11 million, plus any BP pieces..

    that being said.. I would rather have the draft pick then be hamstrung with Kemp's monster for the next 3 years..

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    Could see the A's deal happen.

    I'd want more than that for Julio or something better than Swihart who i think is very overrated.

    Or just wait this winter and let teams get in a bidding war with not much on the FA market.

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    I'll take Butlers 1 year deal and be done over Kemp for 3 any day. Plus we get a good pick out of it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    McCann has only two years after this season, plus a club option for 2019 at 15M that becomes a player's option with reasonably strong performance and durability in the prior two years. Cervelli is two years younger, and hasn't had as heavy a workload. My guess is he gets five years guaranteed. And probably a higher AAV than the 17M that McCann is due in 2017 and 2018. I like the risk-return profile on McCann a bit better.
    According to BR Mac's option just vests, and I assume he will play enough to make it vest:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...html#contracts

    MLBTR pegs Cervelli at 4/60 with a chance at a 5 year deal:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/0...ankings-2.html

    If Cervelli requires a deal bigger than Mac's I would pass on him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    According to BR Mac's option just vests, and I assume he will play enough to make it vest:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...html#contracts

    MLBTR pegs Cervelli at 4/60 with a chance at a 5 year deal:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/0...ankings-2.html

    If Cervelli requires a deal bigger than Mac's I would pass on him.
    I think we can get Cervelli on a 4 year deal and maybe team option at most. But if not Ramos isn't a bad back-up plan IMO.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coach_Chris View Post
    I know it is Bleacher Report, but I am curious to see if you like the two trade ideas that involve the Braves.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...nd-speculation
    I would not take on Butler's contract for the 37th pick. Back of the envelope math . . . the Dodgers gave around $6m and a few B prospects for the 40th pick last year (before the Braves swooped in). Braves gave around $5m for the 75th pick last year. In a sense, Braves gave around $8m for the the 14th pick one year removed (Touissant). So taking on the $13-14m that Butler would be owed after the deadline seems a bit high. Especially when we're talking most of that hitting the books in a year we plan to compete.

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    I still think the Braves make a run at Lucroy this offseason.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    I still think the Braves make a run at Lucroy this offseason.
    He is controlled for 2017 only. I hope the Braves look to fix the position for longer than 1 season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    He is controlled for 2017 only. I hope the Braves look to fix the position for longer than 1 season.
    Plus he'll cost A LOT for that one season which even with him we are at best looking at challenging for a wild card. So unless he is given to sign with us past '17 I'd not do that.

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    We'd have to have a window to negotiate before I'd trade for him.

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