not much expected surplus value...would not get us Happ without a significant additional pieceOriginally Posted by msstate7
not much expected surplus value...would not get us Happ without a significant additional piece
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
I just need to know that I've got several internal candidates for that last rotation spot in 2019 after an Archer trade (or other trade) shakes out.
Right now I consider Soroka, Gohara, Fried, Allard, Weigel (health permitting), Touki, and Wright as legitimate candidates for that spot in 2019 and I could make a weak case for Wisler.
But I don't want to trade Contreras, Waters, Pache, Riley (yet).
How significant?
I wanted to unload Tehearn years ago.
Forever Fredi
He's a replacement level player this year who is owed 11 million next year with a 12 million dollar option for 2020.
If you assumed he bounced back to be a 1 WAR player, (as he has been 2 of the last 3 years) there still wouldn't be much, if any, surplus value there. There is always a veteran out there at the 12 million price point.
Mariners get Zach Duke. Another guy I convetted, though with Venters he's a bit redundant.
you're anti julion? shocking...I think maybe Julion and Wentz gets us Happ
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
For reference, here is what the Rays equivalent to Talking Chop (so take that for what it's worth) writes about trading Archer to the Braves:
https://www.draysbay.com/2018/7/28/1...n-diego-padres
Likely trade targets:
3B Austin Riley (No. 29)
RHP Ian Anderson (No. 38) or RHP Kyle Wright (No. 40)
OF Cristian Pache (No. 98) or OF Drew Waters (NR)
RHP Touki Toussaint (NR) or LHP Kolby Allard (NR)
The best young pieces in Atlanta are already part of the Braves rebuild, but stepping out of the top-10 for a centerpiece casts a wider net on the Top-100.
Riley is young for his level and a reasonable start, and nabbing Wright would make an Archer deal a win for the Rays. Add a young outfield prospect and a Triple-A starter, and I don’t see how Tampa Bay says no.
Danny’s best guess: Riley, Wright, Pache, and Allard makes this too difficult to pass up.
First, we examine Archer's surplus value...
2018: ~1.5 wins RoS is $30M while being paid ~$2M is $25M-$30M surplus value.
2019: I'll project 3+ wins for $7.5M is another $20M+ in surplus value.
2020: Project 3 ins for $9M (option) is another ~$20M in surplus value.
2021: Again project 3 wins for $11M is another ~$20M in surplus value.
Add all that up, and we are talking about a total surplus value in the range of $90M+. Add in the fact that a team can limit its downside via the 2 option years, and the surplus probably inches towards $100M.
Approximate values of the guys listed by the Rays fansite...
3B Austin Riley (FV 50) = $20M
RHP Ian Anderson (FV 50) = $20M
RHP Kyle Wright (FV 55) = $38M
OF Cristian Pache (FV 55) = $38M
OF Drew Waters (FV 45, likely FV 50 now) = $20M
RHP Touki Toussaint (FV 50) = $20M
LHP Kolby Allard (FV 50) = $20M
That Riley, Wright, Pache, and Allard package they suggest carries a total value of about $115M, so it's not horribly off. A reasonable offer considering they are Rays fans.
I would NOT be in favor of trading such a package for Archer.
To me, an acceptable package would have to center around guys like Gohara (if the Braves are done with him), Fried, Allard and Camargo (if he is replaced this season with Beltre or Solarte).
Last edited by Enscheff; 07-30-2018 at 05:00 PM.
No way I do the first package. I would do yours
Which means "fair" is probably somewhere in the middle.
The good news is that when dealing with the Rays, they likely won't require FV 60 centerpiece for Archer like most teams would.
They typically take MLB-ready quantity over quality, which is precisely what the Braves have.
Rumors have the Indians and Nationals discussing Bryce Harper.
Giles, 10th, and 22nd prospect for him, nice haul.
Regarding Archer, his value isnt as big as it was 2 years ago, but i'd offer something like Allard, Fried, Ynoa, and a guy outside the top 30.
If they insist on Camargo being included would you guys take Matt Duffy as part of the deal?
Something along the lines of Allard, Fried, Ynoa and Camargo for Archer, Romo and Duffy.
Last edited by Acuña’s Bat Flip; 07-30-2018 at 05:23 PM.
If that heats up, gotta figure the Red Sox, yankees, and Astros call. Harper could be a game changer
That gets you about 60% to Archer's value
Dodgers also.
Anybody that's still in it should call. Really hope the nats don't get a bidding war going for Harper
I wouldn't, Archer is overrated and isn't as good as he use to be. I don't think he is a good match-up vs the Phillies either. I know it was earlier this year but they scored a touchdown on him IIRC vs Tampa Bay back in April. Plus I like Allard more than most around here too. And Fried has also improved his stock of late.
I wonder if the Blue Jays may try to turn around and trade Giles? His ERA is pretty bad, but it looks like he has been quite unlucky since his FIP two and a half points lower and his BB/9 is at an insane 0.9 right now. Could probably get some good value out of him.
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