The Increasing Over Reliance on WAR

[Carp]

No, a run is always double counted because someone always scores the same run that is driven in.

The runner had to get on base to score the run.

[thethe]

The runner had to get on base to score the run.

Thats fine, but its only 1 run and in your scenario every run counts as 2. This is where advanced statistics do a great job. People should be credited for a portion of a run if they drive on in or are the man who scored the run.

Nobody is 100% responsible for a run scored unless they hit a home run.

[thewupk]

No, a run is always double counted because someone always scores the same run that is driven in.

It's not a literal run that is scored. It doesn't work that way. Each event on offense is assigned a certain value. A walk is like 0.3 runs, a single is worth 0.4, a homerun is 1.4 etc. Those aren't the exact values but you get the point.

[thethe]

It's not a literal run that is scored. It doesn't work that way. Each event on offense is assigned a certain value. A walk is like 0.3 runs, a single is worth 0.4, a homerun is 1.4 etc. Those aren't the exact values but you get the point.

Agreed 100%. I'm just disputing the point that Carp was making. I love the way advanced stats capture offensive value. Its very interesting and thoughtful.

[thewupk]

The main issue with this(at least for me) is that we have a clear understanding of how many runs a player generates on offense. He drives in 100 runs and scores 100 runs. Thus, he has created 200 runs. We can see that.

However, defensive runs are hypothetical. You don't actually know how many runs a player saves. It's based on actual data that is then compared to an imaginary replacement player. But the imaginary player never had a chance to make those plays.

runs scored and rbi is not the best way to show 'runs created'. Those are stats dependant on your teammates.

[thewupk]

Agreed 100%. I'm just disputing the point that Carp was making. I love the way advanced stats capture offensive value. Its very interesting and thoughtful.

Yeah that's what happens when you don't read the entire conversation.

[Metaphysicist]

It did happen, but in 2012. Kemp got off to a very hot start and got hurt. Somewhere in there I saw a comparison and knew that the stat was suspect. Kemp's OPS was over 1.000 at the time.

Kemp was hot for the first month of 2012, and then he trailed off and got hurt. No one should be using WAR over a one month sample; basically anything can happen in one month, and WAR is designed for season long samples. This is a bad reason to discard WAR, but a good reason to ignore people using it for short periods.

It's hard to speak about tiny vague periods of time, but overall Michael Bourn was better than Matt Kemp in 2012. Bourn was average with the bat, but added a ton of value on the bases and in the field. Matt Kemp was a great hitter who was a mediocre baserunner and an atrocious defensive CF. I'm not sure which part of that is boggling to the mind. A great hitter can give a ton of value back with awful defense; see: Adam Dunn's whole career.

Can you point to a full-season example of something you consider preposterous? That would be easier, and make more sense, to discuss.

[Metaphysicist]

As Metaphysicist says, I haven't examined the individual components that go into the calculation, and I suppose that's on me. But I shouldn't have to.

You don't have to. But if you are going to criticize it, those criticisms would carry more weight if you bothered to understand what you are criticizing.

[Metaphysicist]

However, defensive runs are hypothetical. You don't actually know how many runs a player saves. It's based on actual data that is then compared to an imaginary replacement player. But the imaginary player never had a chance to make those plays.

This is not true. DRS is tabulated by video scouts who time and spot each play (among a number of other things). Then those plays are compared to every other play at the same location in a season. Not hypothetical plays; actual plays. A player only gets credit for plays that other real life players failed to make. The more other players failed, the more credit he gets.

[50PoundHead]

One thing that I haven't seen discussed much but that I think leads to the statistics understating the value of elite defenders is something that could be called "fielding externalities." An outstanding defender with great range allows changes to the positioning of other players that can improve overall defensive outcomes without the player getting credit for it.

For example, in the outfield Jason's range allows BJ to shade over to left more, which means we get better results on balls hit to left center. I'm pretty sure the defensive metrics do not give Jason credit for this.

Same with the infield. With Simmons at short, CJ plays closer to the bag which cuts down on doubles down the line. I don't think Simmons defensive data reflect that.

I read the statistics with some interest, but I still believe defense is the one aspect of the game that the guys in the dugouts and in the scouting boxes probably have a better idea of defensive value (or at least are closer to what the statistics bear). I think you've hit on a big portion of that in your post. Managers/coaches use a variety of criteria when positioning players for certain hitters. A premium defensive player (especially in the middle of the defense) really allows greater flexibility in the positioning of the other guys. I think the other thing that gets lost is how a pitcher's inability to pitch to the defense plays out. Sure, there's going to be mistakes, but if you've positioned your guys in a way to complement the pitcher working "outside," the defense can get crossed up by a mistake "inside." I think that's where the spectacular plays really stand out (defensive player leaning the wrong way and still recovers kind of thing).

I'm not going to poo-poo defensive stats (or offensive stats for that matter). I think good players tend to measure up and lesser players don't and there are usually numbers to support that impression. What tickles me is that it still boils down to the fact that we all like certain players and we can usually find some statistic somewhere that supports our preference. Thus it has always been. It's just a little more complex now.

[GovClintonTyree]

You don't have to. But if you are going to criticize it, those criticisms would carry more weight if you bothered to understand what you are criticizing.

Now you're just being an asshole. Why are you so vested in this?

Gerardo Parra, 2013. Also find it interesting that he's worth 4 dWAR that year, then he's minus the next year. How can I possibly figure out what to spend based on that? At $9m a WAR in ***y this off season, he was worth $36m for defense alone that year! And now he's negative? I overpaid!

He wasn't that good then and he isn't that bad now.

[GovClintonTyree]

This is not true. DRS is tabulated by video scouts who time and spot each play (among a number of other things). Then those plays are compared to every other play at the same location in a season. Not hypothetical plays; actual plays. A player only gets credit for plays that other real life players failed to make. The more other players failed, the more credit he gets.

What a ****ing job. What do they do in May when the video scouts commit suicide?

[GovClintonTyree]

Your Adam Dunn comment is at the crux of my point, Meta. I don't think even The Big Donkey gave back what he created. Not even close. Cause mostly what he did was catch routine fly balls and catch throws at 1B. I know he was a ****ty fielder and I know it matters. I don't think it matters that much.

I value defense, and I've coached and played as much as anyone on here. There's something wrong with the relative weighting of offense and defense in the stat.

[zitothebrave]

Also, aside from that Uggla example, you have Pat Burrell. A notoriously horrid defender, gets cut by the Rays in early 2010 I believe. Then goes to San Fran and UZR shows him as a positive defender. Again, I know about sample sizes, but defense is a different animal than offense. You simply can't hide some defensive deficiencies. I find it very hard to believe that Burrell performed well enough to be an asset defensively, even in the short time he was there.

How is that a good example? Citing someone performing well in a small sample. No one of any caliber of intellect would use his same from either Tampa or San Fran that year.

[GovClintonTyree]

If this how you view statistics then you shouldn't use them. But that doesn't make the stat categorically flawed.

B-ref states that the proper use of their WAR is to accept a range of about 1-2 Wins when assessing players. It's not as if they are championing it as the ultimate 'be all end all'.

I don't agree with your comments. Stats should be easily understandable. It shouldn't require a whole lot of qualification.

And I'll promise you I've read 100 articles this offseason on trades, free agents, and potential deals in which the columnist blithely uses them as absolute. Kinda like the tag of the new mattress that says "don't remove under penalty of law." Doesn't work. People tear off the tag.

[zitothebrave]

Would only be double counted if he hit 100 solo home runs.

If he drives in run in one at bat and then scores a run his next time up, he has accounted for 2 runs. Now obviously scoring a run is mostly dependent on the people behind you, but you still had to reach base for the run to be scored.

Holy ****. It's like the internet wasn't invented in Carpe land.

[zitothebrave]

Now you're just being an asshole. Why are you so vested in this?

Gerardo Parra, 2013. Also find it interesting that he's worth 4 dWAR that year, then he's minus the next year. How can I possibly figure out what to spend based on that? At $9m a WAR in ***y this off season, he was worth $36m for defense alone that year! And now he's negative? I overpaid!

He wasn't that good then and he isn't that bad now.

What a ****ty logic. You can apply that same post to offense.

Chris Davis, 2013. Find it interesting he's worth 52 batting runs that year, then he's minus the next year. How can I possibly figure out what to spend based on that? at 9M a WAR this offseason he's worth 45M in oWAR alone, now he's negative? I overpaid!

[jpx7]

Kinda like the tag of the new mattress that says "don't remove under penalty of law." Doesn't work. People tear off the tag.

This may or may not be a relevant extension of the metonymy, but: I'm pretty sure that phrase only applies to the merchant selling the mattress; I believe the consumer is free to rip that tag right off and do whatever to that shiz.

[GovClintonTyree]

This may or may not be a relevant extension of the metonymy, but: I'm pretty sure that phrase only applies to the merchant selling the mattress; I believe the consumer is free to rip that tag right off and do whatever to that shiz.

Yeah, I know. I just think it's funny.

[GovClintonTyree]

What a ****ty logic. You can apply that same post to offense.

Chris Davis, 2013. Find it interesting he's worth 52 batting runs that year, then he's minus the next year. How can I possibly figure out what to spend based on that? at 9M a WAR this offseason he's worth 45M in oWAR alone, now he's negative? I overpaid!

Which brings us full circle to - the delta between the best and worst fielder is nowhere near as great as that with offense. Could you imagine Simmons going negative?