The 2018 Midterms

[Jaw]

Ahh, Nate Silver. His reasoning on Florida is interesting:

Democrats won uncontested races in Florida’s 10th, 14th, 21st and 24th congressional districts. Based on the results from uncontested congressional districts in states other than Florida on Tuesday night, I estimate that each one would have given Democrats about 180,000 votes if they’d been counted.

He does realize those people were still allowed to vote for the statewide elections, right?

And then this:

States shaded in light blue were won by Democrats, but by fewer than 5 percentage points. So it’s noteworthy which states are not in light blue but solid blue instead. Democrats won the popular vote in Michigan by 7 percentage points, in Wisconsin by 8 points, in Pennsylvania by 10 points, and in Minnesota by 11 points.

Can anyone think of a past Presidential candidate who has outperformed his party in all of those states, and who Silver and the polling industry have already underestimated, and who is a likely candidate for 2020?

Getting stuck in between the Northern Path and the Sunbelt Strategy is a big risk for Democrats: where their Electoral College problems become most acute.

He made a bit more sense here, but I would have said that getting stuck in between the two paths is a serious concern for both parties in the next election, not just for the Democrats. We can probably look forward to a contentious two years leading up to 2020, with both sides doing their best to poison the political environment and rile up their base.

[The Chosen One]

Republicans won 10 out of 13 seats in North Carolina with only 50.1% of the vote.

Gotta love the gerrymandering. House gains could have been bigger if the redistricting maps that were struck down for being too biased were not used this cycle.

[57Brave]

Silver pointing out trend adjustment
which if used properly is the utility of polls

This isnt the Bible or the Koran, it is one persons opinion/prediction/reading of trends.
One very informed persons opinion/prediction

Awaiting a recount I dont think Nelson has yet conceded and Gillum on first crack at state level election showed not so bad.
pointing out Fla is trending (D) is not a reach

[50PoundHead]

Ahh, Nate Silver. His reasoning on Florida is interesting:



He does realize those people were still allowed to vote for the statewide elections, right?

And then this:



Can anyone think of a past Presidential candidate who has outperformed his party in all of those states, and who Silver and the polling industry have already underestimated, and who is a likely candidate for 2020?


He made a bit more sense here, but I would have said that getting stuck in between the two paths is a serious concern for both parties in the next election, not just for the Democrats. We can probably look forward to a contentious two years leading up to 2020, with both sides doing their best to poison the political environment and rile up their base.

I believe what he is saying is that voter turnout was lower because there was no contested congressional seat. Not a clear line of reasoning, but it would be curious to see if turnout percentages were considerably lower in those districts.

[57Brave]

Sinema pulls ahead in Arizona 99% of vote in

[57Brave]

This is, frankly, not the column I expected to write today. After all, the pundit class—myself included—focused on big ticket gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races. Flipping the House was a forgone conclusion. Democrats won some close races and lost some others. The results, in so many cases, mirrored conventional wisdom. That is to say: There were few surprises.

And then came Lucy McBath—a 58 year old Joliet, Illinois native and Atlanta transplant.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/lucy-m...er&via=desktop

[Jaw]

"Late Tuesday night, our win was projected to be around 57,000 votes," Scott told reporters. "By Wednesday morning, that lead dropped to 38,000. By Wednesday evening, it was around 30,000. This morning, it was around 21,000. Now, it is 15,000."

He continued: "On election night, Broward County said there were 634,000 votes cast. At 1 a.m. today, there were 695,700 ballots cast on election day. At 2:30 p.m. today, the number was up to 707,223 ballots cast on Election Day. And we just learned, that the number has increased to 712,840 ballots cast on Election Day. In Palm Beach County, there are 15,000 new votes found since election night."
...
Scott's complaint against Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Susan Bucher, meanwhile, alleges that officials there illegally refused to allow Republicans, or any witnesses, to monitor the county's handling of damaged absentee ballots.

"Even more alarmingly," Scott further claims, Bucher "failed to allow the Palm Beach County Canvassing Board" to determine, as required by law, which damaged absentee ballots are valid and what the intent of the voter was in casting them. Instead, Scott and the NRSC argue, Bucher simply subsituted her own judgment for voters' intent.
...
"A U.S. Senate seat & a statewide cabinet officer are now potentially in the hands of an elections supervisor with a history of incompetence & of blatant violations of state & federal laws," Rubio wrote, linking to a Miami Herald article describing several scandals that have gripped Broward County’s Elections Department.

Earlier this year, a judge found that Snipes had illegally destroyed ballots in a 2016 congressional contest, leading the governor's office to assign election monitors to supervise her.

[goldfly]

it takes HUGE balls for republicans to make this claim with a straight face

huge


seriously they are angry about counting votes.

good to see them opposed to democracy itself and just being outright against it now instead of their ways of voter purges, voter suppression and district gerrymandering etc

[sturg33]

it takes HUGE balls for republicans to make this claim with a straight face

huge


seriously they are angry about counting votes.

good to see them opposed to democracy itself and just being outright against it now instead of their ways of voter purges, voter suppression and district gerrymandering etc

That is not their complaint. And if you cared about any intellectual honesty you would have known and posted that

[goldfly]

that is their complaint

the complaint is that they are counting all the votes

[NinersSBChamps]

that is their complaint

the complaint is that they are counting all the votes

But not allowing anyone to oversee the damagaed ballots is torelly fine?

[goldfly]

oh, i'll talk Scott at his word like i do president fox news when his orange ass says something. lol

Legal experts said Friday that the Scott campaign’s lawsuits are pure “political theater” and have no basis for being filed against the supervisors of elections in both counties as they tally all the votes from Tuesday’s midterm election before submitting the final results to the secretary of state by noon Saturday.

“These lawsuits are politically motivated and don’t have any legal foundation,” said University of Miami School of Law professor Donald Jones. “They are a distraction that takes our attention away from issues that we need to address” about the voting and tabulating process in general.

Jones, a constitutional law and elections expert, said both suits should be thrown out of court.

“The issue is not Rick Scott’s access to [ballot] records,” he told the Miami Herald. “It’s about the inefficiencies in the system.... Let them do their jobs.”

Miami attorney Stephen Cody, who has represented several candidates in elections disputes, said Scott’s campaign has no legal grounds to go to court at this stage.

“Normally, you want to contest an election after the votes are certified by the [local] canvassing boards and the state and after the recounts are completed,” Cody said. “Anything other than that is premature. They are trying to turn a public records request into something it’s not supposed to be.

“It’s a desperation move by attorneys for Rick Scott to make it look like they are doing something,” he added. “But it’s not legal.”

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/pol...#storylink=cpy

seriously, arguing and angry cause people are counting votes

amazing times we have fallen under this regime

[50PoundHead]

Both the governor and senate races in Florida went Republican, but Florida shows as blue on that map? That is creative.

It still boils down to candidates and one can't argue that DeSantis and Scott aren't a formidable set. When Maria hit the Panhandle, it reminded me a bit of Hurricane Sandy hitting right before the election in 2012, which certainly gave Obama a boost. Scott was visible during the storm. I'm not saying that was a game-changer, but he showed concern and competence. Never a bad thing for a candidate. In the Governor's race, I think it needs to be pointed out to the Sanders' crowd that Gillum got less than 35% in a six-way primary (where four candidates got more than 10% of the vote). That said, he almost pulled it off.

I think what Silver is talking about is what happened below the surface.

And I know there's been some hectoring about the Dems using the total US Senate vote totals as some kind of valid measure. Obviously, from a governing standpoint, it's not valid. The Constitution was constructed to prevent the tyranny of the majority, thus using the Senate as a bulwark where representation was based equally on statehood as opposed to population distribution. But that was to prevent the tyranny of the majority. I think what some fear is a tyranny of the minority. I'm not saying that's the case, but you had a President who lost the popular vote take office claiming he had this huge mandate.

Here's a good article from the latest issue of Harper's. Yeah, it's written by a lefty and all this talk about secession reminds me of all the states that talked about seceding when W was elected in 2000 and when Obama was elected in 2008. Tired rhetoric. What else is new? I think the underlying point is we are reaching a point when the population distribution has gotten so extreme that smaller states are really whistling the tune right now and those states are redder than a baboon's bottom. A variant of the tyranny of the minority is what started the Civil War and I don't see a hot war developing between the states, but cooler heads and a willingness to recognize we are a country of interdependent states and localities has to take place.

Here's the Harper's article: https://harpers.org/archive/2018/11/...h-of-a-nation/

[sturg33]

that is their complaint

the complaint is that they are counting all the votes

you.

are.

wrong.

[57Brave]

Jon Cooper
��
‏Verified account @joncoopertweets

The Democrats have already picked up 35 House seats

— the largest number since 1974 in the wake of the Watergate scandal.

In facts, the Dems could end up flipping as many as 40 seats.

Guess what, folks — there WAS a Blue Wave!!

�� �� ��
#RedToBlue #BlueWave

[smoltzie29]

[Jaw]

It still boils down to candidates and one can't argue that DeSantis and Scott aren't a formidable set. When Maria hit the Panhandle, it reminded me a bit of Hurricane Sandy hitting right before the election in 2012, which certainly gave Obama a boost. Scott was visible during the storm. I'm not saying that was a game-changer, but he showed concern and competence. Never a bad thing for a candidate. In the Governor's race, I think it needs to be pointed out to the Sanders' crowd that Gillum got less than 35% in a six-way primary (where four candidates got more than 10% of the vote). That said, he almost pulled it off.

I think what Silver is talking about is what happened below the surface.

And I know there's been some hectoring about the Dems using the total US Senate vote totals as some kind of valid measure. Obviously, from a governing standpoint, it's not valid. The Constitution was constructed to prevent the tyranny of the majority, thus using the Senate as a bulwark where representation was based equally on statehood as opposed to population distribution. But that was to prevent the tyranny of the majority. I think what some fear is a tyranny of the minority. I'm not saying that's the case, but you had a President who lost the popular vote take office claiming he had this huge mandate.

Here's a good article from the latest issue of Harper's. Yeah, it's written by a lefty and all this talk about secession reminds me of all the states that talked about seceding when W was elected in 2000 and when Obama was elected in 2008. Tired rhetoric. What else is new? I think the underlying point is we are reaching a point when the population distribution has gotten so extreme that smaller states are really whistling the tune right now and those states are redder than a baboon's bottom. A variant of the tyranny of the minority is what started the Civil War and I don't see a hot war developing between the states, but cooler heads and a willingness to recognize we are a country of interdependent states and localities has to take place.

Here's the Harper's article: https://harpers.org/archive/2018/11/...h-of-a-nation/

Good stuff 50. I'll try to check out the article tonight.

For the rural vs. urban divide, I feel like most of the governmental power being moved from DC to the local level would fix that. But I also recognize that my solution fits my ideology, and that neither party is going to go along with it. I just don't think we can arrive at a federal government that represents people in Southern California and Central Mississippi equally well, and certainly not with a federal government that seems to continually grant itself more authority.

Who knows, maybe one day the divide will be so great that the state level parties will unite in support of a more literal interpretation of the 10th Amendment so they can get out of each other's way. Something needs to happen.

[goldfly]

Your argument is still saying “don’t count those votes”

I don’t care the reasons you are arguing for not wanting to count the vote

What you are saying though is to not count votes. It’s pretty ****ing simple

[sturg33]

Your argument is still saying “don’t count those votes”

I don’t care the reasons you are arguing for not wanting to count the vote

What you are saying though is to not count votes. It’s pretty ****ing simple

dude... what is wrong with you. you used to be somewhat rational.

the argument is that the county has not followed protocol at all, and cannot prove that the votes are legitimate, and continue to not answer how how many votes have been counted and are left. they are breaking the law

Everyone - literally everyone - wants the votes counted. But we want the legit votes counted and this county continues to break laws and can't prove which are legit or not. Oh, and ms. Snipes has already been caught destroying and altering votes in the past. One might understand why we want to be sure everything is above board.

But I know your small man syndrome can't comprehend this so continue on with your narrative. Just remember that you are wrong... have been wrong, and apparently are fine continuing being wrong. It's like you want to act like Trump.

[goldfly]

I don’t care about the protocol

I care about the votes and counting them.

So weird for you to not stick up for one of the most constitutional thing we have as citizens

But hey, I care about counting votes and you care about procedure.