This is the main reason I think dinosaurs push back against analytics...this misunderstanding (shocking) over what folks mean when they say something isn't sustainable.
Yes, Albies hit a bunch of HRs early in the season. Those HRs happened. They were awesome. The Braves won games because of them. Albies was extremely valuable to the team due to those HRs. It doesn't matter if they went 325'...they happened and they counted.
However, decisions by baseball FOs have to be made based on what is likely to happen in the future, not what actually happened in the past. Nothing about Albies HR binge suggested it was ever going to happen again, so planning needed to happen based on that fact.
Same thing with Newk's unsustainable start. Same thing with Acuna's currently unsustainable hot streak (42% HR/FB rate).
Garmel (08-24-2018)
It's funny seeing you mock my interest in this board...yet here you are...constantly trying to egg me on.
I'm glad you'll honor the bet. Consider it a life lesson you couldn't get at the local community college you attend while still living at home with D1 Daddy. It will serve you well in your future profession of...whatever nothing job you end up doing that pays $40k a year.
Best of luck in life, Taylor.
bravesfanforlife88 (08-24-2018), Tapate50 (08-24-2018)
And again...
Who is the guy that cares too much?
I don't disagree with any of this. Of course analytics are great at predicting what will happen in the future. I totally buy into the luck factor and unsustainability and all that, and that FOs have to make decisions on what is more likely to happen vs what did happen.
I'm just saying for the sake of this award, in Nola's case, calling him lucky and saying he shouldn't win because of that is silly to me. What he did, he did. It won't continue forever, but what happened, happened. that's all.
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
For the record, I couldn't care less about silly individual awards.
However, the response statheads will give you is that a good portion of a pitcher's success is tied to the defense behind him, or the park he plays in. He should not be credited for contributions made by his defense (good or bad), catcher framing (good or bad), nor should he be dinged for pitching at Coors field.
At the end of the day I only care about what a player is projected to do going forward, but folks who care about these awards should care about contributions made by the player in question...not his surrounding cast. Luck is luck, and most good seasons have a decent amount of it helping the player.
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
Ventura's Stolen Bases
jpx7 (08-26-2018)
The Pirates' offense woke up vs. the Brewers.
Archer got lit up again, boy did AA get lucky that didnt go through.