Fangraphs Top 100 Prospects

[bravesfanMatt]

That was 100% max effort. No chance he throws like that pitching. Seems he will still be a low 90 guy at best

[msstate7]

You really think that tidbit suggests he is sustaining mid-90s?

No, not really. That’s why I stuck the if in there. Read on his draft report that 94 was his peak, so maybe he has added some velocity.

[thethe]

No, not really. That’s why I stuck the if in there. Read on his draft report that 94 was his peak, so maybe he has added some velocity.

If he is sitting low 90's thats a huge improvement over last year reports. Plus at his size and reach the ball 'comes at the hitter' faster so 92-94 for a pitcher that size is close to 93-96 for a pitcher 6 foot. Hes still a baby and a long ways to go. Only reason I posted it was that I thought it was a positive piece of news on a former top pick.

[msstate7]

positive piece of news on a former top pick.

Keep that crap out of here... we want posts saying our guys are overrated/pump the brakes on them, slam trades/moves in the past, and how we are broke

[thethe]

Keep that crap out of here... we want posts saying our guys are overrated/pump the brakes on them, slam trades/moves in the past, and how we are broke

Remember the reactions to your consistent ACCURATE hyping of Riley for the last 3 years? Who looks foolish now?

[msstate7]

Remember the reactions to your consistent ACCURATE hyping of Riley for the last 3 years? Who looks foolish now?

Hopefully he continues to improve.

[Enscheff]

Remember the reactions to your consistent ACCURATE hyping of Riley for the last 3 years? Who looks foolish now?

I wouldn't be so quick to gloat about a guy who has 200 PAs at AA with a .393 BABIP.

At any rate, it will be fun to revisit who hyped who when the time comes.

[Enscheff]

FG just released their KATOH-based rankings, which are strictly based on stats vs level vs age:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018...toh-prospects/

1. Acuna
41. Soroka
67. Wilson
68. Gohara
76. Pache
92. Wentz
94. Anderson

KATOH has the failure rate of pitching prospects baked into its algorithm (it compares to similar pitchers in the past, and all pitchers inherently have a high bust rate), so it is no surprise to see pitchers systematically pushed down the list. Since the Braves farm is mostly pitchers, we see the bulk of their top guys pushed down as a result.

Interesting to not see Allard considering the argument for his prospectdom is "he just produces at a young age". I'm not too familiar with how KATOH projects these guys, but there must be something in the peripherals of Allard's numbers that make him unimpressive. I always considered him the most expendable of the "elite arms", and that stance has further solidified in my mind after reading all these most recent prospect articles.

Also interesting to see that KATOH was not fooled by Riley's .393 BABIP over 200 PAs in AA.

[Enscheff]

Nice little summary graph produced by FG: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/inst...overview-grid/

The Braves have 10 Top 100 guys, far and away the most (2nd place has 6). Even adjusting for Kiley's pozziness they are still clearly #1.

Switching to a better measure of depth, which includes all the FV 50 and the best FV 45 guys, the Braves are still #1 with 15 guys. Other teams close the gap a bit in the depth department, but I would argue elite talent is more important than having a bunch of fringe MLB bench players.

I think it's safe to say the Braves easily have the best farm system, both in terms of premium talent AND depth.

TB has sneakily built a deep farm that should help them continue their "no scrubs" method of roster construction. I expect they will trade Odorizzi and add 2-3 more guys to their count of 14, which will put them past the Braves, but I would still much prefer the elite talent the Braves have.

KC is going to have a pretty rough rebuild. Signing Hosmer to a 7 year deal would be almost indefensibly stupid.

[thewupk]

Nice little summary graph produced by FG: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/inst...overview-grid/

The Braves have 10 Top 100 guys, far and away the most (2nd place has 6). Even adjusting for Kiley's pozziness they are still clearly #1.

Switching to a better measure of depth, which includes all the FV 50 and the best FV 45 guys, the Braves are still #1 with 15 guys. Other teams close the gap a bit in the depth department, but I would argue elite talent is more important than having a bunch of fringe MLB bench players.

I think it's safe to say the Braves easily have the best farm system, both in terms of premium talent AND depth.

TB has sneakily built a deep farm that should help them continue their "no scrubs" method of roster construction. I expect they will trade Odorizzi and add 2-3 more guys to their count of 14, which will put them past the Braves, but I would still much prefer the elite talent the Braves have.

KC is going to have a pretty rough rebuild. Signing Hosmer to a 7 year deal would be almost indefensibly stupid.

All hail Frank Wren for being the GM that acquired our two best players under the age of 25

[nsacpi]

FG just released their KATOH-based rankings, which are strictly based on stats vs level vs age:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018...toh-prospects/

1. Acuna
41. Soroka
67. Wilson
68. Gohara
76. Pache
92. Wentz
94. Anderson

KATOH has the failure rate of pitching prospects baked into its algorithm (it compares to similar pitchers in the past, and all pitchers inherently have a high bust rate), so it is no surprise to see pitchers systematically pushed down the list. Since the Braves farm is mostly pitchers, we see the bulk of their top guys pushed down as a result.

Interesting to not see Allard considering the argument for his prospectdom is "he just produces at a young age". I'm not too familiar with how KATOH projects these guys, but there must be something in the peripherals of Allard's numbers that make him unimpressive. I always considered him the most expendable of the "elite arms", and that stance has further solidified in my mind after reading all these most recent prospect articles.

Also interesting to see that KATOH was not fooled by Riley's .393 BABIP over 200 PAs in AA.

KATOH loved Albies from way back when he was still in diapers.

[Super]

lol @ giving wren credit for the international scouting and hitting on two complete lottery tickets. it's like you're not even trying.

all hail frank for the poor drafting and leaving the organization completely devoid of any pitching at any level and a piss-poor farm system on a team leaving its short, weak window of contention.

[thewupk]

lol @ giving wren credit for the international scouting and hitting on two complete lottery tickets. it's like you're not even trying.

all hail frank for the poor drafting and leaving the organization completely devoid of any pitching at any level and a piss-poor farm system on a team leaving its short, weak window of contention.

all hail the Johns, our supposed saviors, for getting us banned from international scouting

[Super]

all hail the Johns, our supposed saviors, for getting us banned from international scouting

and the damn good drafts.

[BeanieAntics]

Nice little summary graph produced by FG: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/inst...overview-grid/

The Braves have 10 Top 100 guys, far and away the most (2nd place has 6). Even adjusting for Kiley's pozziness they are still clearly #1.

Switching to a better measure of depth, which includes all the FV 50 and the best FV 45 guys, the Braves are still #1 with 15 guys. Other teams close the gap a bit in the depth department, but I would argue elite talent is more important than having a bunch of fringe MLB bench players.

I think it's safe to say the Braves easily have the best farm system, both in terms of premium talent AND depth.

TB has sneakily built a deep farm that should help them continue their "no scrubs" method of roster construction. I expect they will trade Odorizzi and add 2-3 more guys to their count of 14, which will put them past the Braves, but I would still much prefer the elite talent the Braves have.

KC is going to have a pretty rough rebuild. Signing Hosmer to a 7 year deal would be almost indefensibly stupid.

This is one of the things that I am most interested in around the baseball landscape. They are in one of the worst positions I have seen in the past decade. How would some of you guys go about rebuilding there? Obviously step 1 would be to draft well and do well internationally. But as far as talent accumulation goes outside of that, they are going to have a rough time. I guess if it were me I would try to flip any semblance of talent I had remaining on the roster for the farm. Then I would try to sign or acquire some of those reclamation types in the hopes that some of them hit and can be flipped for more farm talent. I don't know. Its a really rough situation and I think it will take them a minimum of 6-7 years to get back into the realm of relevancy.

[thewupk]

and the damn good drafts.

yes, getting high draft picks is hard

[Super]

yes, getting high draft picks is hard

it was apparently tough for wren to convert them into players when given the chance (mike minor anyone?). but he's the best lottery number picker. that's for damn sure.

also didn't realize soroka, wentz, muller, riley, weigel, wilson, etc, etc were considered high picks.

[thewupk]

it was apparently tough for wren to convert them into players when given the chance (mike minor anyone?). but he's the best lottery number picker. that's for damn sure.

also didn't realize soroka, wentz, muller, riley, weigel, wilson, etc, etc were considered high picks.

Well now you know.

Wren put a winner on the field without getting the chance to properly rebuild either time he needed to. He wasn't perfect but 10 times better than what we had recently.

[Chico]

I don't buy the high draft picks equals automatic prospect success argument.

[thewupk]

I don't buy the high draft picks equals automatic prospect success argument.

It doesn't. Just as what you spend on IFA doesn't mean automatic success or not. It's all a crapshoot really. You just have to use the information given to you.