The great folty vs Newcomb debate

[thethe]

i disagree. ERA measures what happened, but not necessarily pure performance. a guy can have a great game with a 4.5 ERA or a poor game with a 1.29 ERA.

Honestly, I didn't even think anyone used bWAR anymore for pitchers.

[Super]

Honestly, I didn't even think anyone used bWAR anymore for pitchers.

i feel like WAR in general is weird for pitchers

[thewupk]

i feel like WAR in general is weird for pitchers

It's a weird construct. But I like Fangraphs process more. Give credit to fielders for what they do and give credit to pitchers for what they can control (mostly). The truth likely lies in between the two versions.

[msstate7]

It's a weird construct. But I like Fangraphs process more. Give credit to fielders for what they do and give credit to pitchers for what they can control (mostly). The truth likely lies in between the two versions.

Formula for pitching ccWAR = (fWAR + bWAR)/2

ccWAR...
Folty 0.55
Newcomb 0.6

[Jaw]

I'm just happy that we're debating young guys like Fried, Newcombe, and Folty...z now instead of Dickey vs Jaime Garcia. Braves baseball is optimistic and exciting again and I love it.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Newk has 145 batters faced, and walk rate "stabilizes" at 170. I'd say we have about two games until it does. He's currently at 3.89 BB/9.

[thewupk]

[zbhargrove]

I get the feeling that Newcomb is finding it and Folty may never be able to get past the mental part. With all of our depth I'd be open to trading him as we are likely to be able to get something good for him at this point.

[zbhargrove]

And oh my God it's not Newcombe!! Drives me crazy for some reason.

[jpx7]

And oh my God it's not Newcombe!! Drives me crazy for some reason.

Newcombe was a righty; southpaws drop the -e.

[msstate7]

fWAR didn't hate folty lasf night... 0.4 to 0.5
bWAR hates it... 0.7 to 0.3

[thewupk]

fWAR didn't hate folty lasf night... 0.4 to 0.5
bWAR hates it... 0.7 to 0.3

Yeah ERA blew up. fwar is all about the walks, k's, and homers.

[thethe]

Yeah ERA blew up. fwar is all about the walks, k's, and homers.

Which stat accounts for things like exit velocity? Folty was getting laced all night

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Which stat accounts for things like exit velocity? Folty was getting laced all night

xwOBA. It went up from 0.316 to 0.330

xwOBA is the expected version of wOBA based on batted ball profile - this article talks about wOBA, but wOBA and xwOBA interpreted pretty much the same, just calculated differently because xwOBA is fielding independent: https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba

[thewupk]

Which stat accounts for things like exit velocity? Folty was getting laced all night

It won't be in any rate state for WAR, at least not yet.

The post above me is correct. xwOBA is the best thing you can look at. Clearly the higher the number the worse you are.

[thethe]

xwOBA. It went up from 0.316 to 0.330

xwOBA is the expected version of wOBA based on batted ball profile - this article talks about wOBA, but wOBA and xwOBA interpreted pretty much the same, just calculated differently because xwOBA is fielding independent: https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba

Thanks for the information.

[thewupk]

I do expect a pitcher WAR that is xwOBA based with walks and strikeouts to crop up soon. It's truly fielding independent and makes too much sense not to have it.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

I do expect a pitcher WAR that is xwOBA based with walks and strikeouts to crop up soon. It's truly fielding independent and makes too much sense not to have it.

I want this. As we talked about earlier, pitcher WAR is a little goofy right now

[thewupk]

Folty 0.9 fWAR and Newk at 1.0 fWAR.

I just don't understand why thethe doesn't like Folty. He's exactly what he liked about Newk last year. Damn near 11 K/9 even with the high walk rate.

[thethe]

Folty 0.9 fWAR and Newk at 1.0 fWAR.

I just don't understand why thethe doesn't like Folty. He's exactly what he liked about Newk last year. Damn near 11 K/9 even with the high walk rate.

I have made my feelings known. I think when you watch guys every day you know more than the stats. They are an aide in the evaluation. Maybe FOlty becomes a guy that can succeed without having any clue where the ball is going. It helps to throw 99.

Does fWAR 'normalize' HR/FB?