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Thread: The great folty vs Newcomb debate

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    Folty is an extra inning-per-game from being REALLY good. Newcomb is around the same. Both just need to be more economical.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Folty 0.9 fWAR and Newk at 1.0 fWAR.

    I just don't understand why thethe doesn't like Folty. He's exactly what he liked about Newk last year. Damn near 11 K/9 even with the high walk rate.
    Newcomb: 1.2 bWAR
    Folty: 0.7 bWAR

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Newcomb: 1.2 bWAR
    Folty: 0.7 bWAR

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I have made my feelings known. I think when you watch guys every day you know more than the stats. They are an aide in the evaluation. Maybe FOlty becomes a guy that can succeed without having any clue where the ball is going. It helps to throw 99.

    Does fWAR 'normalize' HR/FB?
    In FIP pitchers are in control of their homeruns given up. It's seen as a skill.


    That said we are 25% through the season and both Folty and Newk are on pace to be 3.5-4 WAR pitchers. Definitely a 'everything has to go right' scenario.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Folty 0.9 fWAR and Newk at 1.0 fWAR.

    .
    I like it. Hopefully we need an NL division series to declare a winner.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I do expect a pitcher WAR that is xwOBA based with walks and strikeouts to crop up soon. It's truly fielding independent and makes too much sense not to have it.
    My only issue with xwOBA is it doesn't account for spray angle (pull vs oppo), nor does it account for batter handedness or speed.

    For pitchers that isn't a very big deal. As they turn the lineup over, they tend to face the same mix of guys with different batting/skill profiles. I think xwOBA is the best rate stat available for pitchers. The next rather easy step is to multiply by IP to get a nice shiny new WAR value for pitchers.

    For hitters it's a little less amazing, but still very good. Some guys have skills that allow them to consistently outproduce their xwOBA (hitting the ball to all fields, being left handed, being fast), and it shows up for them as "being lucky" when they aren't actually lucky. I'm also starting to think that hitting fly balls to the shorter areas of the field rather than to the huge expanses of CF is a skill that can contribute to guys appearing "lucky" on HRs.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 05-16-2018 at 11:27 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    In FIP pitchers are in control of their homeruns given up. It's seen as a skill.


    That said we are 25% through the season and both Folty and Newk are on pace to be 3.5-4 WAR pitchers. Definitely a 'everything has to go right' scenario.
    But, but, but...Newk throws "better" strikes!

    Because...derrrpalytics!

    Newk probably won't sustain a HR/9 of 0.58 in anything but the most magical of seasons.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 05-16-2018 at 11:19 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    But, but, but...Newk throws "better" strikes!

    Because...derrrpalytics!

    Newk probably won't sustain a HR/9 of 0.58 in anything but the most magical of seasons.
    thethe really has you triggered. You seem obsessed with him

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    thethe really has you triggered. You seem obsessed with him
    And you with me...

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I have made my feelings known. I think when you watch guys every day you know more than the stats. They are an aide in the evaluation. Maybe FOlty becomes a guy that can succeed without having any clue where the ball is going. It helps to throw 99.

    Does fWAR 'normalize' HR/FB?
    He looked to have plenty of idea where the ball was going yesterday, on at least 80% of his pitches; if anything, he was being too fine with his location, living on borderlines and working himself into trouble when he didn’t get the calls.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I have made my feelings known. I think when you watch guys every day you know more than the stats. They are an aide in the evaluation. Maybe FOlty becomes a guy that can succeed without having any clue where the ball is going. It helps to throw 99.

    Does fWAR 'normalize' HR/FB?
    LOL....

    Are you aware that teams have literally spent millions on analytics groups precisely because that statement is incorrect?

    Derrrrrp!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    My only issue with xwOBA is it doesn't account for spray angle (pull vs oppo), nor does it account for batter handedness or speed.

    For pitchers that isn't a very big deal. As they turn the lineup over, they tend to face the same mix of guys with different batting/skill profiles. I think xwOBA is the best rate stat available for pitchers. The next rather easy step is to multiply by IP to get a nice shiny new WAR value for pitchers.

    For hitters it's a little less amazing, but still very good. Some guys have skills that allow them to consistently outproduce their xwOBA (hitting the ball to all fields, being left handed, being fast), and it shows up for them as "being lucky" when they aren't actually lucky. I'm also starting to think that hitting fly balls to the shorter areas of the field rather than to the huge expanses of CF is a skill that can contribute to guys appearing "lucky" on HRs.
    Yeah I bet we are right around the corner of creating a new stat that is able to account for all of these factors that keep xwOBA from being ideal. xwOBA does a better job than most other metrics, but like you said it has some faults.

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    If Folty knew how to pitch at all he'd be the best pitcher in the league. Unfortunately he only knows how to throw.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    He looked to have plenty of idea where the ball was going yesterday, on at least 80% of his pitches; if anything, he was being too fine with his location, living on borderlines and working himself into trouble when he didn’t get the calls.
    Sadly I did not get to see the game yesterday as I'm on the west coast for work.

    Folty has been better of late. Would still like to see him get batters out a bit more early in the count. I'll take your word for it that he was hitting the mitt better yesterday.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I have made my feelings known. I think when you watch guys every day you know more than the stats. They are an aide in the evaluation. Maybe FOlty becomes a guy that can succeed without having any clue where the ball is going. It helps to throw 99.

    Does fWAR 'normalize' HR/FB?


    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Sadly I did not get to see the game yesterday as I'm on the west coast for work.

    Folty has been better of late. Would still like to see him get batters out a bit more early in the count. I'll take your word for it that he was hitting the mitt better yesterday.

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    Doesn't matter. The eye test is all we need.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Sadly I did not get to see the game yesterday as I'm on the west coast for work.

    Folty has been better of late. Would still like to see him get batters out a bit more early in the count. I'll take your word for it that he was hitting the mitt better yesterday.
    I thought you watched them everyday. How are we supposed to rely on your "eye test" now?

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    Newcomb top 10 in xwOBA among pitchers with over 100 PAs, Folty is top 60.

    Both have been really good this year

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Did I make one comment on his performance yesterday?
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    but srsly

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