Crunching the numbers on a Machado trade - Potential 3B Trades

[nsacpi]

Might even call them olympian numbers: titanesque, really. Might even open a pandora’s box of future signings.

i just hope all this speculation is not some sort of siren song

[thewupk]

Crazy that Beltre is still this good

craig biggio of 3B

[thethe]

Our luck would be that beltre caters after we get him and then retires.

Pass

You could convince me of moose even though I'd rather just go defense with upside offense.

[nsacpi]

Our luck would be that beltre caters after we get him and then retires.

Pass

You could convince me of moose even though I'd rather just go defense with upside offense.

So what is the risk of Beltre cratering versus Moose cratering during the 3 months we would have them. Just curious how you see this.

[zitothebrave]

craig biggio of 3B

Nah, he's way better than biggio, I'd say he's more like the Pete Rose of 3B.

[thethe]

So what is the risk of Beltre cratering versus Moose cratering during the 3 months we would have them. Just curious how you see this.

I wouldn't say the risk over a small sample such as post July would be negligible. I do believe the position on the age curve makes moose a better gamble.

[thewupk]

Nah, he's way better than biggio, I'd say he's more like the Pete Rose of 3B.

Due to his defense yes. I was referring to them offensively in that they were never truly great just really good for a long time.

[jpx7]

Nah, he's way better than biggio, I'd say he's more like the Pete Rose of 3B.

Split the difference, maybe. But Beltre has at least consistently been a wildly better defender than Biggio ever was.

[nsacpi]

I wouldn't say the risk over a small sample such as post July would be negligible. I do believe the position on the age curve makes moose a better gamble.

It is a good topic for investigation. Probability of a sharp drop in performance for player in the second half of his age 39 season (Beltre) verus odds for a similar drop in performance for a player in the second half of his age 29 season (Moose). It is the kind of question that I suspect the FO has or will soon crunch the numbers on.

This kind of information is very useful. Once you've done the analysis you can use the results every year at the trading deadline.

[nsacpi]

Split the difference, maybe. But Beltre has at least consistently been a wildly better defender than Biggio ever was.

I do wonder if the hamstring problem he has been battling this year might be more of a risk on the defensive side of things. Ideally I would like him to return to action for a couple weeks with the Rangers and have us scout each game to get a feel for how he is moving.

[jpx7]

It is a good topic for investigation. Odds of a sharp drop in performance for player in his age 39 season (Beltre) verus odss for a similar drop in performance for a player in his age 29 season (Moose). It is the kind of question that I suspect the FO has or will soon crunch the numbers on.

I also wonder how much weight to give Beltre’s HoF skilkset, age-eroded as it is, and decade of very consistent numbers, versus Moustakas’ substantially less-than skillset, boosted by relative youth as it is, and history of inconsistency.

My hunch is the much bigger concern with Beltre is substantial dl time, not precipitous collapse of performance—though the former is enough to push me towards slightly favouring the Moustakas/Camargo platoon, costs being relatively equal.

[nsacpi]

I also wonder how much weight to give Beltre’s HoF skilkset, age-eroded as it is, and decade of very consistent numbers, versus Moustakas’ substantially less-than skillset, boosted by relative youth as it is, and history of inconsistency.

I think those kinds of things would have to be included in the analysis. I started doing something like this years ago, but quit due to a lack of a research assistant. But the Braves have the interns to do the grunt work.

[Oklahomabrave]

I also wonder how much weight to give Beltre’s HoF skilkset, age-eroded as it is, and decade of very consistent numbers, versus Moustakas’ substantially less-than skillset, boosted by relative youth as it is, and history of inconsistency.

My hunch is the much bigger concern with Beltre is substantial dl time, not precipitous collapse of performance—though the former is enough to push me towards slightly favouring the Moustakas/Camargo platoon, costs being relatively equal.

I’d also prefer trading with the Royals FO to the Rangers.

[nsacpi]

There are plusses and minusses for Beltre relative to Moose. It is a close call and might turn on the asking prices of their respective teams.

[nsacpi]

I’d also prefer trading with the Royals FO to the Rangers.

yeah...dumber front office

[thethe]

There are plusses and minusses for Beltre relative to Moose. It is a close call and might turn on the asking prices of their respective teams.

Or AA will finally realize that Camargos total package is better than both

[jpx7]

Or AA will finally realize that Camargos total package is better than both

I’m sure he’ll realize it if it becomes a reality.

[thethe]

I’m sure he’ll realize it if it becomes a reality.

My clairvoyant abilities can assure you it is a reality

[Hudson2]

I'd rather go after Donaldson at the deadline if he's healthy.

[Heyward]

Ideally, Camargo would be the everyday guy and we go for a high leverage BP arm, or a SP depending whats out there.

But until that happens, you consider going for Moose or Beltre.