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Thread: GDT -- Wed, 5/23 vs Phiiiies

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Swanson career OPS of .679 in 837 PA. Career WAR is 1.5.

    Camargo career OPS of .781 in 345 PA. Career WAR is 1.6.

    After a certain point, a player has to be accepted for who he is. Failure to recognize this leads to mistakes. I make two additional points:

    1) Neither Camargo nor Swanson is a proven regular. That's a fact that underlies a compelling case to add depth in the form of one of Beltre/Moose/Lowrie for the left side of the infield.

    2) Camargo has a better chance (not yugely better but better nonetheless) of developing into a regular. After a certain point you have to put aside pedigree and look at production.
    There are a lot of people on this board selling Johan short thus far. After a slow start, he's been fine and is a plus defensively around the diamond.
    Ivermectin Man

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    There are a lot of people on this board selling Johan short thus far. After a slow start, he's been fine and is a plus defensively around the diamond.
    Camargo is awesome at 3b. His def value went from negative to positive really quick moving to 3b. He is not anywhere close to Swanson at SS defensively though

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I guess the idea is he learns to run better routes as he gets older before his speed leaves him?
    Of course. Why would he not? I route running an innate skill that cannot be taught?

    Most scouts I saw said he could play CF. Differing opinions on how well. He can play a corner.

    I have watched him and he looks really raw to me. His approach to setting up to throw comes to mind. He looks like a 20 y/o who has used his amazing leg talent and arm talent to get to MLB. I do not think it's crazy to expect him to get better with age and coaching.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Camargo is awesome at 3b. His def value went from negative to positive really quick moving to 3b. He is not anywhere close to Swanson at SS defensively though
    I would agree.

    And IF Swanson is not our long time SS then it's not Comargo. You make that decision in the offseason and you move Ozzie to SS and look to get a Dozier at 2B. Maybe you can offer Machado a SS spot but I don't think we can afford him nor is that a good idea long term. I do not think Ozzie will be a great defensive SS but he'll be fine and he'd be better than Comargo.

    I don't know why pro Comargo posters seem to think if he doesn't start then he's bad. I'd love to have him as the backup 3B, SS, 2B and play a ton. He's very good. I want him to be a brave for a long time. I just don't see a starter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Swanson career OPS of .679 in 837 PA. Career WAR is 1.5.

    Camargo career OPS of .781 in 345 PA. Career WAR is 1.6.

    After a certain point, a player has to be accepted for who he is. Failure to recognize this leads to mistakes. I make two additional points:

    1) Neither Camargo nor Swanson is a proven regular. That's a fact that underlies a compelling case to add depth in the form of one of Beltre/Moose/Lowrie for the left side of the infield.

    2) Camargo has a better chance (not yugely better but better nonetheless) of developing into a regular. After a certain point you have to put aside pedigree and look at production.
    Eh, using their WAR numbers is a little misleading IMO. it's still really early in both their careers.
    camargo was a part time player, swanson has had to play every day. me thinks if camargo played every day his numbers would've leveled out (or will). swanson is a better defensive SS and i still believe possesses more potential with the bat.
    it's definitely too early to give up on swanson.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Swanson career OPS of .679 in 837 PA. Career WAR is 1.5.

    Camargo career OPS of .781 in 345 PA. Career WAR is 1.6.

    After a certain point, a player has to be accepted for who he is. Failure to recognize this leads to mistakes. I make two additional points:

    1) Neither Camargo nor Swanson is a proven regular. That's a fact that underlies a compelling case to add depth in the form of one of Beltre/Moose/Lowrie for the left side of the infield.

    2) Camargo has a better chance (not yugely better but better nonetheless) of developing into a regular. After a certain point you have to put aside pedigree and look at production.
    I disagree strongly with statement #2. Camargo doesn't appear to be capable of being an everyday SS due to his defense.

    Production should definitely be valued over pedigree, but only after both players have had enough time to reach their normal level of production. One horrible season for a player who was rushed to the big leagues can skew the stats you posted.

    For the record I don't ever see Swanson as much more than a .750 OPS guy in a good year. If he can stay between that point and around .700 on the low side and maintain his defensive production, that should be enough to keep him in the lineup.

    I expect Camargo to level out to around a .750 as well, with maybe a little more in a good year. His defense at SS wouldn't be good enough to displace Swanson with those numbers IMO. If he can play to the high side of that I could see him being a viable option at 3B going forward though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Is defensive value not production?
    it is part of WAR
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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    I would agree.

    And IF Swanson is not our long time SS then it's not Comargo. You make that decision in the offseason and you move Ozzie to SS and look to get a Dozier at 2B. Maybe you can offer Machado a SS spot but I don't think we can afford him nor is that a good idea long term. I do not think Ozzie will be a great defensive SS but he'll be fine and he'd be better than Comargo.

    I don't know why pro Comargo posters seem to think if he doesn't start then he's bad. I'd love to have him as the backup 3B, SS, 2B and play a ton. He's very good. I want him to be a brave for a long time. I just don't see a starter.
    Neither Camargo nor Swanson has established themselves as players you want to have in the lineup every day.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    it is part of WAR
    Yep. 0.8 fWAR and 1.2 bWAR this season in 33 games. Not bad, eh?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Eh, using their WAR numbers is a little misleading IMO.
    I would say if their career WAR numbers are a little misleading, then a WAR number for a subset of their career is even more misleading. The data are what they are. After a certain point you have to set aside pedigree.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkPiggler View Post
    Production should definitely be valued over pedigree, but only after both players have had enough time to reach their normal level of production.
    Over 800 PA for Swanson and approaching 400 for Camargo. And I think a certain weight can be applied to AAA numbers from the last couple years.
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Yep. 0.8 fWAR and 1.2 bWAR this season in 33 games. Not bad, eh?
    see post #290
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    Of course. Why would he not? I route running an innate skill that cannot be taught?

    Most scouts I saw said he could play CF. Differing opinions on how well. He can play a corner.

    I have watched him and he looks really raw to me. His approach to setting up to throw comes to mind. He looks like a 20 y/o who has used his amazing leg talent and arm talent to get to MLB. I do not think it's crazy to expect him to get better with age and coaching.
    I don't disagree with this but I don't think it's a simple thing to learn. Hopefully he can do it.

    I think some scouts see his speed and equate that to being able to play CF. I see a guy with speed to be able to make some great plays but also look pretty raw out there as you said. Hopefully it's just an experience thing. I still thing he's going to be a Justin Upton clone out there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkPiggler View Post
    I disagree strongly with statement #2. Camargo doesn't appear to be capable of being an everyday SS due to his defense.

    Production should definitely be valued over pedigree, but only after both players have had enough time to reach their normal level of production. One horrible season for a player who was rushed to the big leagues can skew the stats you posted.

    For the record I don't ever see Swanson as much more than a .750 OPS guy in a good year. If he can stay between that point and around .700 on the low side and maintain his defensive production, that should be enough to keep him in the lineup.

    I expect Camargo to level out to around a .750 as well, with maybe a little more in a good year. His defense at SS wouldn't be good enough to displace Swanson with those numbers IMO. If he can play to the high side of that I could see him being a viable option at 3B going forward though.
    I would agree.
    If we have a 750 OPS plus defense SS hitting 8th we are going to be good. As long as we get a real 3B.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The data are what they are. After a certain point you have to set aside pedigree.
    Agree, but we haven't reached that point yet.

    Using your reasoning you would've given up on Dale Murphy after 1978. I'm not at all saying Swanson will reach Murph's level of production - just pointing out one example out of many who weren't finished products after fewer than two big league seasons.

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    Camargo has a gun of an arm and usually very good hands but very bad range at short and it appeared this season that playing at short was hurting him on offense as well. He appears to be more comfortable not being at short.
    Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Over 800 PA for Swanson and approaching 400 for Camargo. And I think a certain weight can be applied to AAA numbers from the last couple years.
    Camargo has 191 AAA plate appearances. Swanson has 45.

    Both had a full season in AA fairly recently, and Swanson put up significantly better numbers at essentially the same age.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    I would agree.
    If we have a 750 OPS plus defense SS hitting 8th we are going to be good. As long as we get a real 3B.
    We can afford one weak spot in the lineup for good defense. We can't handle two non-hitters though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkPiggler View Post
    Agree, but we haven't reached that point yet.

    Using your reasoning you would've given up on Dale Murphy after 1978. I'm not at all saying Swanson will reach Murph's level of production - just pointing out one example out of many who weren't finished products after fewer than two big league seasons.
    You don't have to go back that far... look at our previous SS.

    Simmons ops (skipped AAA also BTW)...
    2012 = .751 (kind of a hot start like Swanson)
    2013 = .692
    2014 = .617
    2015 = .660
    2016 = .690
    2017 = .752
    2018 = .857

    Now I realize there is a significant difference in simmons' defense and Swanson's, but Swanson is still very good. I doubt seriously you see Swanson stay under .700 ops again for a season. .700 ops and his defense is a nice asset at ss. I expect Swanson to get better and better with the bat too. I expect Swanson to be our Brandon Crawford

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I would say if their career WAR numbers are a little misleading, then a WAR number for a subset of their career is even more misleading. The data are what they are. After a certain point you have to set aside pedigree.
    and it's at this point, when they're both 24? you're overreacting.

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