Nice analysis. Wonder how much we can exploit the expected purge in Miami.
Nice analysis. Wonder how much we can exploit the expected purge in Miami.
It seems really likely we're facing heavy fines when MLB penalties are released. I'm guessing that would take away from the already not huge amount of funds we have to spend this season.
At first, I thought this might be a case of the right place, right time for the Reds to deal him, but then I found a September story that spoke of Senzel being shut down with symptoms of vertigo. Braves fans uniquely know how career threatening that can be.Originally Posted by Enscheff
Jaw (10-13-2017)
Suarez would be a great pickup.
I'd love to get Suarez or Senzel. But we should be realistic about the price. I'd project Suarez to generate 10-12 wins over the next three years and net a surplus value of 5-6 wins. To get that type of player you have to be willing to part with a Top 50 prospect. Probably someone in the 20-40 range.
We're talking about someone like Allard (#23 on BA's mid-season list) or Soroka (#33). Given his second half surge, Gohara is probably of similar value. He was ranked #76 on the mid-season list.
So do we make that sort of trade. Or try to sign someone like Nunez for 7M or so. I certainly don't think that Nunez is as good or valuable as Suarez or Senzel. But for the price, I do think he makes more sense.
Last edited by nsacpi; 10-13-2017 at 02:59 PM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Id trade Allard plus for him without hesitation.
Yes, Suarez will cost one of Allard/Soroka plus another guy on the fringes of the Top 100. Probably some additional filler as well.
If the Braves truly think they are ready to contend, that's the kind of move they will have to make to legitimately upgrade the roster. Whether they should do it this year, next year, or the year after is certainly open for debate.
We always knew they would eventually trade pitching for hitting, the only question is when do they do it and who they target. Suarez would fill a black hole on the roster for 3 years, so he is certainly a candidate to be that guy.
Austin Riley is not that far away. We should trade for a starting pitcher like Chris Archer, Michael Fulmer or Marcus Stroman!!
Stanton and Ozuna are obvious upgrades in the OF. Stanton is clearly out of the Braves price range (not that it will stop incessant rosterbation involving him).
Ozuna is controlled for 2 more seasons. He is projected to make $11M next year, and probably around $18M next year. Assuming 8 WAR over those 2 years, he carries ~$50M in surplus value. He will also cost one of Allard/Soroka to acquire. I don't think I'd pay that price for 2 years of an OFer when 1 of those seasons isn't likely to be a playoff caliber team.
Another OF option is Avisail Garcia from the White Sox. His last 3 seasons xwOBA are:
2015: 0.312
2016: 0.324 (league average)
2017: 0.353 (Matt Kemp level offense)
Of the 29 player seasons of 250+ ABs for the White Sox over the last 3 years, Garcia's 2017 is the 5th luckiest. It would be foolish to expect him to replicate last season's .885 OPS, but .800+ is certainly within reason.
Of the 287 hitters who hit 50+ line drives last year, his 97.5 mph exit velocity ranks #14. He is a plus-plus or better ball striker. He is the same caliber hitter as Suarez, in my opinion, with fewer walks made up for by hitting the ball much harder.
Garcia is a prime candidate to join the fly ball revolution. He currently hits ~25% fly balls, which results in 15-20 HRs per year. If he increases that rate to 35%, he is a candidate to hit 30+ HRs and become the next "where did he come from?" middle of the lineup force.
While not a plus defender, he should be average or better in LF.
So what would be his cost? Projected salary of $6.7M next year with 3 years of control, let's say ~$30M over those 3 years. Assuming he produces 10 wins over those 3 years he has a surplus value in the neighborhood of ~$70M. Like Suarez and Ozuna, Garcia's acquisition price will start with 1 of Allard/Soroka, but I would expect the overall price to be a bit less than Suarez.
To me, the 3 main keepers are Wright and Gohara, so if the Braves can acquire a player with 3+ years of control at a position of extreme need like Suarez or Garcia with one of Allard or Soroka as the centerpiece, I'd be all for it.
Last edited by Enscheff; 10-13-2017 at 03:50 PM.
Jaw (10-13-2017)
One guy who intrigues me and I think could be a good fit for us is Max Kepler. He hasn't really busted out yet and is 5 years from hitting free agency. The Twins need pitching. A trade like Folty (who is 4 years from free agency) for Kepler is something both teams would look hard at.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Kepler hasn't topped a 0.300 xwOBA in 2 full seasons, but he does hit the ball hard (#58 of 287 in line drive exit velocity).
Good BB rate, looks like a candidate to lower his K rate a bit based on his numbers in the upper minors.
He could be a breakout candidate, but I haven't heard any indication the Twins are looking to trade away young MLB players.
A lower cost option would be Piscotty. He should be an above average hitter and produce ~2 wins in LF over the next couple years. He's the only OFer the Cards might deal that I would have any interest in, and he wouldn't cost nearly as much to acquire as Suarez/Garcia/Ozuna.
The Braves can have a Top 10 OF if they an get a 2+ win guy in LF next to Inciarte and Acuna.
Last edited by Enscheff; 10-13-2017 at 04:23 PM.
I'd do zero all in. I think if we think we are 82ish wins then we go with that and see what happens. You'd be in the neighborhood to be a buyer at the deadline if you are tracking that way.
I would not use a significant player to dump Kemp. I wouldn't attach anyone to Neck to move him.
I'd be open to whatever comes along. 103 million is still pretty low. If the Marlins get desperate to move guys and you can get Ozuna by taking on a bad deal like Wei-Yen Chen I'd even consider that.
I wish we weren't purging the front office of all analytics people. Some smart subs and platoons could get us those couple of wins we need to be relevant. If the division sucks again we might be an extra win or two better than we should be too.
I'm not inclined to make a splash either. Baseball is going through an unusual period where you have a bunch of bad teams trying to rebuild (KC, Detroit and the Marlins to join the crowd next year). This means being a 100 win team isn't quite the accomplishment it has been in the past. We just finished a season with 3 100+ win teams and a 4th one at 97. Having a lot of bad rebuilding teams also means fewer teams are really contenders for a post-season spot than usual. Teams like the Twins and Brewers (almost in their case) can sneak in with a few breaks. I would play it conservatively this off-season and keep 5-10 million in reserve in case things go our way and we find ourselves above .500 in July. Use that to fill some holes at mid-season.
Last edited by nsacpi; 10-13-2017 at 04:37 PM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
NYCBrave (10-14-2017)
According to MLBTR, the Marlins need to shed about $50M: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...0-million.html
The following players are the prime trade candidates that could be traded without eating money:
Stanton: $25M
Gordon: $10.5M
Ziegler: $9M
Ozuna: $10.9M
Prado (maybe): $13.5M
Gordon, Zielger and whatever relief they can get from Prado are no-brainers. That gets them about halfway there.
A Stanton trade finishes the task.
An Ozuna trade plus some creative way to unload Tazawa pretty much gets it done too.
If the Marlins trade Gordon and Prado, would they be interested in Camargo as part of the package for Ozuna?
What about Ozuna plus Prado for Camargo plus a FV 45/50 pitching prospect?
Last edited by Enscheff; 10-13-2017 at 05:34 PM.
I was thinking along those lines for a trade too, wasn’t sure that was enough though.
I'd be all for an Ozuna, Ender, and Acuna outfield.
Once Ozuna becomes free agent what we can expect to resign him? I mean money per year?
Doubt it. Ozuna is on track to be looking for at least JUp money as a FA going into his age 29 season.
The best the Braves can hope for is probably to buy out his 2 Arb years for $30M in exchange for a $20M option on his age 29 season, still allowing him to become a FA by 30.
Most likely he will not be interested in an extension this close to being a FA.
Shame is, during the early rebuild stages Ozuna was totally on the trade block and likely could have been had for a pittance of what he’d cost now.
I do think Miami poses a real opportunity to get some quality players at a slight discount .
I'd like to hit up the Cardinals and Brewers and make a swap for their odd men out which I think is Randall Grichuk and Brett Phillips. Teaming those 2 with Ender and Acuna would make a nice young OF for a few years.
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