5/17/15 Braves @ Marlins

[thethe]

09- 230 IP0 5.9 WAR
10- 237.2 IP 5.1 WAR
11- 237.1 IP 6.4 WAR
12- 200 IP 4.7 WAR
13- 211 IP 2.6 WAR
14- 46 IP 0.1 WAR
15- 52 IP 0.6 WAR

You don't think the Yanks do that contract all over again? 4 great years, 1 solid year, 1 injury plagued year. 2015 remains to be seen; peripherals look better than ERA.

Again, a team like the Yankees can afford to have a front load bargain and let it sit on their books with it being poor. Braves just can't play that way. Sabathia is an awful pitcher now and has been for two+ years. You are using predictive stats in the wrong way IMO. Using those as a prospective analysis is great but retrospectively they don't have much value to me. The results are the results.

[thethe]

He was also a main reason they won the world series in 2009 too. And this is the nature of the beast for long contracts to free agents. If you can get half of the contract to be excellent production then you have done good. If the Braves can't do that they will never be players on the FA market for top tier guys. Which means the yhave to either develop them internally or make trades like where they got Upton. It makes it a lot harder to build a winner that way.

No question about it that the Braves have a more difficult time to build a winner than a team like the Yankees but that is why its important to build up the scouting portion of the franchise which was done this offseason. I would actually entertain more deals like they made this year. Just have their scouts identify players from other organizations they want and just continually churn out produtive MLB players. I'm all for a deep roster now and utilize platoons.

[Russ2dollas]

As best as I can tell, the following are 100 million dollar, 5+ year contracts since 2011:

Reyes- 9.5 WAR over first 3 years. (~67.50 million dollar value). Would need to be worth 34.50 million over last 3 years of the deal or 1.5 WAR per year)
Fielder- Too early, probably a bad signing
Pujols- 7.1 WAR over first 3 years- (~49.40 million) Would need to be worth 191 million over last 7 years of deal or 3.9 WAR per year. Almost certainly a bad deal
Hamilton- Drugs. 3.1 WAR over first 2 years (23.3 million) Would need to be worth 100 million over last 3 years or 4.75 WAR per year. Almost certainly a bad deal
Greinke- 7.6 WAR over first 2 years. (57.3 million). Would need to be worth 90 million over next 4 years or 3.2 war per year. Probably a win unless injury occurs (already 1.1 WAR this year)
Choo- FAIL
Ellsbury- too early 3.9 WAR first year was well over pay
Cano- too early 5.1 WAR his first year
Scherzer- Too early. Good start
Lester- Too early. Good start
Lee- 19.3 WAR over first 4 years. (~139.4 million) Win.
Crawford- 5.7 WAR over first 4 years (~42.30 million). Would need 100 million over last 3 years. Fail.
Werth- 12.7 WAR over first 4 years (~94.7 million). Would need to be worth 31.3 million over last 3 years of deal or roughly 1.5 WAR per Year. Likely Win.

There may be some other contracts, the goal post moving is time consuming.

I don't know where you are getting those WAR numbers.....maybe I'm reading the wrong values off of baseball ref........

So in this sample it's about 5/13 that are already bad. Maybe 2-3 that look like wins. The rest that could be solid deals. Certainly better than I thought, that is why it's good to look at the actual data. Also a small SS. The sample is going to grow impressively each year.

[gilesfan]

Again, a team like the Yankees can afford to have a front load bargain and let it sit on their books with it being poor. Braves just can't play that way. Sabathia is an awful pitcher now and has been for two+ years. You are using predictive stats in the wrong way IMO. Using those as a prospective analysis is great but retrospectively they don't have much value to me. The results are the results.

No,not really.

Freeman is making 20-22 million in 17-20. Can the Braves not play that way?

[thethe]

No,not really.

Freeman is making 20-22 million in 17-20. Can the Braves not play that way?

Well they smartly locked him up in his early years so the liklihood that he regresses to a negative is minimal. This is the whole point of this discussion. Braves should not be players in the FA market becaues the players are older and then end of the deals are going to look bad.

[thethe]

I don't know where you are getting those WAR numbers.....maybe I'm reading the wrong values off of baseball ref........

So in this sample it's about 5/13 that are already bad. Maybe 2-3 that look like wins. The rest that could be solid deals. Certainly better than I thought, that is why it's good to look at the actual data. Also a small SS. The sample is going to grow impressively each year.

Its basically a percentage chance that a middle market team like hte Braves can't take.

[gilesfan]

So you too are moving the goalposts.

[Russ2dollas]

Its basically a percentage chance that a middle market team like hte Braves can't take.

I think the Braves just have to spread the risk. I 'm not sure that one guy in baseball makes that big of a difference, unless it's a stud pitcher. Especially in the playoffs a stud pitcher makes life so much easier.

[thethe]

So you too are moving the goalposts.

There is no moving at all. The argument always was the Braves should not be players on the FA market. Where is it moving to?

[jsebe10]

So could we be seeing Peraza called up now that Goss is out for 8weeks

[thethe]

So could we be seeing Peraza called up now that Goss is out for 8weeks

I have a feeling we will see Castro before Goss.

[cajunrevenge]

I get the feeling that Peraza won't see Atlanta until September, Maybe August. I think they want him to get a full season at AAA.

[nsacpi]

Peraza and Castro are nice players. But there is only one Adonis Garcia. He is the world's most interesting ballplayer.

[jpx7]

Is have a huge variation in value from year to year a good thing though? I get the cumulative looks positive but the years where he was awful really hurt the Yankees. But for a team like that they can endure terrible years for the short term benefit of a bargain. Braves can't do that.

The issue isn't whether it's good, it's whether it's manageable given context and inherent risks. I'd argue the Sabathia contract has been very manageable for the Yankees, given the production they received at the outset (as well as their fiduciary position).

[thethe]

The issue isn't whether it's good, it's whether it's manageable given context and inherent risks. I'd argue the Sabathia contract has been very manageable for the Yankees, given the production they received at the outset (as well as their fiduciary position).

Agreed...Yankees can hvae that happen with no repercussions.