It is all subjective but to me an ace is someone with multiple seasons as a Top 20 starter in the majors. Medlen had one terrific half season. Beachy a bit longer. But they have to withstand the test of time to be an ace in my book.Originally Posted by rico43
Minor and Julio to a lesser extent are pitching like Aces, but they are still 2/3 starters. Aces do it for a few seasons or just are overwhelming talents like Harvey/Strasburg/Fernandez, etc. Just collect as many good pitchers as possible, and you will win a ton of games. Out of those good pitchers, someone is going to have an ace caliber season as we have seen with Minor.
Projections are never going to be 100% accurate but scouting is nothing more than projecting. Sometimes its obvious sometimes its not. This is why teams do their own scouting and dont rely on what baseball america or other teams think. The scouts who make their opinion public might not have thought much of Minor or Beachy but the Braves scouts did. The Braves spent a whole calendar year telling people Teheran was fine but few believed them. In scouting you can be wrong most of the time and just a few hits on players and your a genius.
I agree teethe...i'm late to the dance in this thread, but Bethancourt is a joy to watch defensively. Offensively, it's a bonus with what he can do, but he is a prospect nonetheless.
Yup. And those of us amateurs who come up with our own Top 20 list are also doing nothing more than projecting, whether we realize it or not.
Yup. In 2010 we drafted Evan Gattis in the 23rd round. Great pick. But we also passed on him 23 times (we had an extra second round pick). And the vast majority of those 23 players selected ahead of him washed out. Each time we picked one of them instead of Gattis we were making a mistake. You have to accept that most your picks are "mistakes," guys who will not make the majors. You have to look at the overall picture when judging a draft or a farm system. It is too easy to just pick one part of the picture that shows success or failure.
Good example of this is 2012 draft. If Lucas winds up panning out and Wood stays healthy, it will be considered a bell-ringer that your first two picks were golden.
Braves already have four big leaguers out of that draft: Gattis, Simmons, Terdoslavich, Cunningham. I believe Leonard and Gosselin will also make it. This draft is already a success. Calling these picks "mistakes," however is not quite fair. Scouts could not possibly measure Gattis' heart and believe he would be as committed as he no doubt is. We should probably just consider it a plus that the Braves drafted him at all.
The average draft yields 4-5 players who make the majors. That's the benchmark I always start with in evaluating a draft.
First round picks will make the majors about three quarters of the time. Second round picks about two-thirds of the time. Third round picks about one-third.
Once you get past the tenth round, each individual pick has less than a 10% chance of making it. But if you pick 15 of those guys, the odds favor one of them making it.
Lipka is another one fro that draft who has a chance of making it. And the kid Drury who we traded to the Diamondbacks has a chance. It is already clear that 2010 was an above average draft. It will possibly be a great one if Simmons realizes his potential, and Terdoslavich or Gattis develop into regulars.
And I really question the importance people are placing on this. Henry Blanco has "elite defensive skills."
It's nice to CB improving with the bat, but he still isn't very good offensively.
Just one of those things.
When Yadier came up, I never expected him to be an offensive force at catcher.
Forever Fredi
But the likelihood of him being Yadier is slim to none. The more realistic comp (yet still unlikely ) is Bengie more so than Yadier.
Given how they have turned it up a notch in the second half of this season, I expect both Sims and Bethancourt to be on the various Top 100 lists after this year. Peraza has a shot at making some of those lists too.
The amount of power that CB is showing is really impressive. If he can learn how to be a bit more selective then we could have a potential core player moving forward. CB's development this season has to have the Braves thinking about what the best move for the franchise is moving forward. CB has always shown that he can make contact but now he is driving the ball. CB has 32 XBH so far this year. That was his total for the last two seasons COMBINED. Nobody can say that this was not a BREAKOUT year for him.
Natural Immunity Croc
Where do you get this from? At 21 Yadi was in AAA but it was the PCL which is a much more hitter friendly league than the Southern league (AA) and he only posted a 760 OPS. Catchers take time to develop at the plate because much of their development in the minors is focused on the defensive part of the game. CB is right on track to becoming an impact playeer.
Natural Immunity Croc
Because projecting 99% of the minor league players to develop into a one of the best hitters in the league is stupid. And it's even more so when the major question surrounding a certain prospect is "Will he hit?"
People who "Yadier took a while to develop" really aren't looking past anything more than OPS. Yadier showed plenty of on base skills at a very early age. Career .335 OBP through age 18-21 in the minors is very good, especially for a catcher.
Last edited by Carp; 08-20-2013 at 07:07 PM.
Of course the perfect scenario is CB becomes a Yadier clone but chances are relatively slim. I don't think CB will ever hit .330 in the big leagues but I do think with his frame that he will hit for more power. I think CB can be a .275/.330/.470 guy on a regular basis which for a catcher with his defensive ability would make him a top tier catcher.
If Bethancourt evolves into the Andrelton Simmons of catchers, I'd be pretty happy. Simmons' approach at the plate leaves a lot to be desired, but he is such a brilliant player in the field most of us are willing to put up with his shortcomings as a hitter.
Problem is that an amazing defensive C doesn't do as much over average as an amazing defensive SS. Simmons saves more runs than Yadier. And I don't think Betancourt is a better defender than Yadier.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
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