Dickerson DFA’d

[clvclv]

I think we will be aiming higher in terms of expected production in left. Keep in mind that Dickerson had a career year (actually a career first half) last year. You don't project future production off a great half-season. His baseline is not that impressive.

No doubt - the earlier point was about lineup balance though. Given that, Dickerson wouldn't make the lineup too left-handed in 2019 if he were still in LF and Riley or Donaldson were manning the hot corner. Acuna replacing Markakis takes care of that.

[Enscheff]

I think we will be aiming higher in terms of expected production in left. Keep in mind that Dickerson had a career year (actually a career first half) last year. You don't project future production off a great half-season. His baseline is not that impressive.

If the solution at 3B/LF ends up being Riley and Dickerson then taking on all the 2018 money to dump Kemp’s 2019 money was pointless.

[nsacpi]

If the solution at 3B/LF ends up being Riley and Dickerson then taking on all the 2018 money to dump Kemp’s 2019 money was pointless.

Correct. I think we will be looking to fill third and left with players who project to be 3-4 win guys. Dickerson is a 1.5 win guy (projected). He did better than that in 2017 but as I noted projections don't give 100% weight to a career season. You have to expect some regression. We will be shopping for guys whose baseline is 3-4 wins. An example is Eugenio Suarez. He is coming off a 4 win season. If he is able to have a similar season in 2018, then that becomes his baseline.

[msstate7]

Correct. I think we will be looking to fill third and left with players who project to be 3-4 win guys. Dickerson is a 1.5 win guy (projected). He did better than that in 2017 but as I noted projections don't give 100% weight to a career season. You have to expect some regression. We will be shopping for guys whose baseline is 3-4 wins. An example is Eugenio Suarez. He is coming off a 4 win season. If he is able to have a similar season in 2018, then that becomes his baseline.

According to bWAR, Dickerson has played 3 seasons with at least 130 games played. Here are his bWAR totals for those 3 seasons: 3.4, 1.5, and 2.7. Seems 1.5 as a projection is low

[thethe]

Correct. I think we will be looking to fill third and left with players who project to be 3-4 win guys. Dickerson is a 1.5 win guy (projected). He did better than that in 2017 but as I noted projections don't give 100% weight to a career season. You have to expect some regression. We will be shopping for guys whose baseline is 3-4 wins. An example is Eugenio Suarez. He is coming off a 4 win season. If he is able to have a similar season in 2018, then that becomes his baseline.

We are going to invest heavy money into lf. Unless riley bombs this year I don't think they block 3b.

[Enscheff]

According to bWAR, Dickerson has played 3 seasons with at least 130 games played. Here are his bWAR totals for those 3 seasons: 3.4, 1.5, and 2.7. Seems 1.5 as a projection is low

You may be right. Here are his wRC+ values per season, as well as his BABIP:

2014: 140, .356
2015: 121, .367
2016: 101, .285
2017: 115, .338

His “bad” year in 2016 seems to be due to a low BABIP of .285. In all other seasons he seems to be able to sustain a much higher BABIP.

Projections have his BABIP at .307 with a wRC+ of 103. Maybe he is declining already. Maybe he will put up another 115+ offensive season.

I still wouldn’t give up anything of any value to find out.

[Enscheff]

One positive in dealing with the Rays is they overvalue 1-2 win nearly MLB ready guys.

The Braves could very well get Dickerson for next to nothing of consequence. Whether or not they can afford $6M is another story. After watching Nunez sign for $4M, I’m not convinced they can afford Dickerson without unloading Markakis.

[nsacpi]

According to bWAR, Dickerson has played 3 seasons with at least 130 games played. Here are his bWAR totals for those 3 seasons: 3.4, 1.5, and 2.7. Seems 1.5 as a projection is low

fWAR for those seasons is 2.5, 1.5 and 2.6.

And that first (2014) season (3.4 bWAR and 2.5 fWAR) was four years ago. Weight should be quite small on that. The more recent season (2015) where he did not play a full season should be given some weight as well. He did have 234 PAs that year while putting up a 0.5 WAR (extrapolates to 1.5 if he played the full season). I think a 1.5 WAR is actually a pretty reasonable projection for him.

[nsacpi]

We are going to invest heavy money into lf. Unless riley bombs this year I don't think they block 3b.

A guy like Suarez who hits free agency after 2020 would not exactly block Riley. A reasonable (non-uber prospect) path for Riley is 2018 in AA, 2019 in AAA (age 22). Then he can split 2020 between AAA and the majors and take over the job in 2021, assuming he shows requisite talent and readiness. Under that scenario we get him for six full year of contractual control 2021-2026 (his ages 24-29 seasons). What's wrong with that?

[Enscheff]

I’m guessing Dickerson finds his way to the O’s.

[Oklahomabrave]

I’m guessing Dickerson finds his way to the O’s.

Hope not, they are my last glimmer of hope for someone to take Markakis.

[CrimeDog247]

You think they signed Hosmer to an 8 year deal to be a platoon player? Really?

Myers is moving back to OF is what he meant.

[thewupk]

fWAR for those seasons is 2.5, 1.5 and 2.6.

And that first (2014) season (3.4 bWAR and 2.5 fWAR) was four years ago. Weight should be quite small on that. The more recent season (2015) where he did not play a full season should be given some weight as well. He did have 234 PAs that year while putting up a 0.5 WAR (extrapolates to 1.5 if he played the full season). I think a 1.5 WAR is actually a pretty reasonable projection for him.

It really depends what you think of his defense. That 2015 season would have been a career worst on defense for him if you extrapoloate that out. Could be SSS noise there. Looking at his offense I would think he projects to a WRC+ in the teens which likely produces a 2+ WAR over a full season for him. In 2016 he had a LD% in the teens where every other year it was 20+ and thus had an above average BABIP. That's probablly the hitter he is.

Dickerson is likely an average player in LF and while those are valuable in pre-FA years I don't think the Braves should activley give up assets for that type of player. If Riley has a good year and projects to be in the majors for most of 2019 then I would hope they invest their money/trade pieces into LF to get a plus player out there.

[dak]

The Dickerson situation is worth monitoring, but I'd prefer a RHH. I'd like to be able to platoon Markakis in the post-Acuna lineup. Cameron Maybin and Chris Young are the most realistic RHH options, I think.

[PurpleBrave]

Guys like Dickerson are a dime a dozen

[Enscheff]

The Dickerson situation is worth monitoring, but I'd prefer a RHH. I'd like to be able to platoon Markakis in the post-Acuna lineup. Cameron Maybin and Chris Young are the most realistic RHH options, I think.

Young just signed with the Angels for $2M.

[thethe]

A guy like Suarez who hits free agency after 2020 would not exactly block Riley. A reasonable (non-uber prospect) path for Riley is 2018 in AA, 2019 in AAA (age 22). Then he can split 2020 between AAA and the majors and take over the job in 2021, assuming he shows requisite talent and readiness. Under that scenario we get him for six full year of contractual control 2021-2026 (his ages 24-29 seasons). What's wrong with that?

He may stall and it require this time line buy his progression the last fee years coupled with performance gives me no reason to believe he will be in triple A by the middle of next year. I think his call up will be anywhere from May to September of 2019.

[nsacpi]

He may stall and it require this time line buy his progression the last fee years coupled with performance gives me no reason to believe he will be in triple A by the middle of next year. I think his call up will be anywhere from May to September of 2019.

Here is this time line we are talking about:

2015 GCL & Appy League combined OPS of .933
2016 Low A .803
2017 Combined High A & AA .786

I don't think those numbers are consistent with a guy who is an uber prospect that will merit aggressive promotion the next two years. It might happen that way. We will know more after this season. But my guess is he will benefit from spending 2018 and 2019 in the minors.

[zitothebrave]

Dickerson is basically a younger Markakis as far as value.

So if we could bring him in and get rid of Markakis for anything than we should do it.

[thethe]

Here is this time line we are talking about:

2015 GCL & Appy League combined OPS of .933
2016 Low A .803
2017 Combined High A & AA .786

I don't think those numbers are consistent with a guy who is an uber prospect that will merit aggressive promotion the next two years. It might happen that way. We will know more after this season. But my guess is he will benefit from spending 2018 and 2019 in the minors.

I agree that he will spend time in the minors come 2019. I think that will be plenty of time. He will spend 75% of the season in AA this year and finish off in Gwinnett. He may even get a September call-up. But he will start 2019 in AAA and as long as his performance merits along with the reporting from the scouts specifically about his defense and approach at the plate he will get the call sometime in the middle of 2019. With that in mind all acquisitions for third should have that timeline in the decision making process. I agree that Riley is not an uber prospect where you don't try to upgrade at all but that upgrade should be a big one over Camargo (roughly a 2 WAR player). For that reason alone I don't see any way a third baseman is brought in.

LF is where the biggest upgrade will come from and I would expect the Bravse be linked to guys who will command 20+M AAV for that position.