Braves sniffing around on Yelich, Realmuto

[thewupk]

I think Yelich provides decent defense in center with a bat that is very much above average for that position. If you move him to left he'd probably be one of the better defensive left fielders but his bat would be much less special there.

I wouldn't be broken up about a Chen and Yelich trade. I just wonder if that's the best use of our resources.

A players doesn't get extra value out of his bat by playing center instead of left or right. He's still going to be a 4+ WAR guy regardless of where he plays and be the same type of hitter.

[striker42]

A players doesn't get extra value out of his bat by playing center instead of left or right. He's still going to be a 4+ WAR guy regardless of where he plays and be the same type of hitter.

It's about scarcity. It's harder to find a guy that can hit like Yelich and play center than it is to find a guy that can hit like he does and play left.

Whether or not is WAR changes isn't the issue for me. It's more about supply and demand.

[Horsehide Harry]

I'm thinking the upgrade from Flowers to realmuto isn't worth the cost.

If you want to upgrade from Flowers for 3 years go sign Lucroy (say 3 years $30M). All he costs is money and his market is currently deflated. He may not be what he once was but he's still a quality catcher who has a chance to provide 1/2 the WAR over the next 3 years as Realmuto at less than 1/2 the cost (Realmuto likely arby in 2018 ~4.2, 2019~8.5, 2020~14=$26.7M) PLUS ~$60M in prospect value going the other way for a total Realmuto cost of$86.7M

And, I really don't want Yelich at all unless he comes at a discount with a contract like Chen or Prado or Zeigler or Tazawa or some combination. That kind of deal to me is an effective use of resources to get talent while rebuilding. Paying a premium in prospect talent while rebuilding makes NO sense.

[Enscheff]

It's about scarcity. It's harder to find a guy that can hit like Yelich and play center than it is to find a guy that can hit like he does and play left.

Whether or not is WAR changes isn't the issue for me. It's more about supply and demand.

The whole point behind WAR is that Yelich gets equal credit for being an excellent LFer as he does for being a below average CFer. It's the same argument we had a few years ago with Heyward in RF or CF. Either 4 WAR is 4 WAR (approximately), or the entire model we base all player valuation on is horribly broken.

Further, there were 11 qualified LFers in 2017 who hit about as well as Yelich or better (115+ wRC+). All but 2 of them were negative defenders.

So no, it is not easy to find competent LFers who hit like Yelich.

[thewupk]

It's about scarcity. It's harder to find a guy that can hit like Yelich and play center than it is to find a guy that can hit like he does and play left.

Whether or not is WAR changes isn't the issue for me. It's more about supply and demand.

It's hard to find good players.

The days of Adam Dunn and Matt Kemp in LF are over unless they are super cheap. You know why? They aren't valuable and don't help teams like they were once thought to.

[chop2chip]

IMO, Yelich would be our safest path to acquire a potential 7 WAR player. He’s a power spike away from becoming that.

If he can be had without Acuna or Albies, we have to be willing to pay the price. It’s the type of risk you need to be willing to make to become relevant.

[Enscheff]

IMO, Yelich would be our safest path to acquire a potential 7 WAR player. He’s a power spike away from becoming that.

If he can be had without Acuna or Albies, we have to be willing to pay the price. It’s the type of risk you need to be willing to make to become relevant.

It will probably require 1 of Gohara/Wright. I'd hate to give either up, but you may be right...at some point the Braves have to convert pitching into an impact guy like Yelich if they want to take the step towards playoff relevance. We all knew this was going to be the case when they started hoarding pitching prospects.

Whether or not that time is now is certainly open for debate though.

[Hawk]

Did someone say "sniffing?"

[zbhargrove]

Keeping in mind that pot usage is way up in 2018....

Dan O'Dowd speculates that there is deal all but done:

BRAVES trade Tyler Flowers, Sean Newcomb, Kolby Allard and Austin Riley

MARLINS trade Christian Yellch, J.T. Realmuto, Martin Prado, Brad Ziegler and W.Y. Chen.

Holy mother of God, what a deal that would be. BUT I'm s little skeptical Braves would deal two lefties. Maybe Anderson stead Allard?

He didn't speculate the deal is all but done... he speculated that was a trade they could make. It was just a trade in his head and has already been talked about at length here.

[striker42]

IMO, Yelich would be our safest path to acquire a potential 7 WAR player. He’s a power spike away from becoming that.

If he can be had without Acuna or Albies, we have to be willing to pay the price. It’s the type of risk you need to be willing to make to become relevant.

If our scouts think Yelich is about to jump to being a 30 HR bat then we need to go all in on him. However, if he is what he's going to be at this point then I probably wouldn't be willing to part with a guy like Wright.

[Southcack77]

If Yelich were a FA today going into his age 26 season he would nearly double that 5/110 contract you wouldn't give him.

Yelich's primary value to me is that he is underpaid and figures to be for rest of the deal. I'm not that interested in paying him his market value.

[Orphan Black]

If our scouts think Yelich is about to jump to being a 30 HR bat then we need to go all in on him. However, if he is what he's going to be at this point then I probably wouldn't be willing to part with a guy like Wright.

Given how the Braves park plays he could potentially jump to 25-30 homers. I doubt 30, but maybe 25.

[Enscheff]

And somebody is going to pay Machado a ton of money but that probably isn't a good decision for Atlanta either.

Yelich's primary value to me is that he is underpaid and figures to be a good player for a bit. But his skill set doesn't really move me enough to be willing to pay market value for it.

Paying Yelich market rate wasn't the issue being discussed....at all. It is in no way analogous to some team paying Machado market rate.

Whoever I quoted stated they wouldn't pay Yelich 5/110 right now. If Yelich was a FA right now and wanted to sign with the Braves for 5/110, I hope AA is smart enough to immediately fill out the paperwork, regardless of how anyone thinks his "skill set fits on the roster".

[Southcack77]

Yelich's primary value to me is that he is underpaid and figures to be for rest of the deal. I'm not that interested in paying him his market value.

I can go pay market in free agency. If I'm not finding value I am not really doing anything especially productive.

EDIT -- probably Yelich still wouldn't be market.

[Southcack77]

Paying Yelich market rate wasn't the issue being discussed....at all. It is in no way analogous to some team paying Machado market rate.

Whoever I quoted stated they wouldn't pay Yelich 5/110 right now. If Yelich was a FA right now and wanted to sign with the Braves for 5/110, I hope AA is smart enough to immediately fill out the paperwork, regardless of how anyone thinks his "skill set fits on the roster".

Yeah, I removed that in a quick edit, but you were too quick on the draw.

Rough estimate he's a 4.5 WAR guy so he's worth maybe 36 million a year, so that 22 million is probably still a good deal.

Maybe I should be more excited about giving Yelich 22 million of the Braves payroll (and you get Chen too, whooo).

[Heyward]

I'd hate to lose either Gohara or Wright but if them and pieces not named Acuna, Albies were the deal i'd probably do it.

Can draft a pitcher at 8 to replace one of them.

Besides, at some point the Braves were gonna have to cash in on these prospects in a trade. Not all of them will pan out, and all of them wont make the 25.

[Enscheff]

Yeah, I removed that in a quick edit, but you were too quick on the draw.

Rough estimate he's a 4.5 WAR guy so he's worth maybe 36 million a year, so that 22 million is probably still a good deal.

Maybe I should be more excited about giving Yelich 22 million of the Braves payroll (and you get Chen too, whooo).

Haha think of Chen as allowing the Braves to keep Soroka. It might make seeing him on the roster more palatable.

[Hudson2]

I love Gohara and Wright both so it would be hard for me to trade either one. I know Gohara has shown he can pitch in the MLB in a short sample size but his past about durability scares me a little and his conditioning. Wright has 4 pitches and seems like a Wainwright type so if I had to keep one of the 2 I’d keep Wright and sell high on Gohara.

[JohnAdcox]

Haha think of Chen as allowing the Braves to keep Soroka. It might make seeing him on the roster more palatable.

Can't we just trade Chen to the Dodgers?

[bravesfanforlife88]

I think 82 games in suntrust park with the short right field would help Yelichs power numbers. I say you do it. Acuna inciarte and Yelich in the outfield is too good to pass up