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Thread: 2018 Braves Spring Training Thread

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Gohara will be a 6 WAR pitcher and Soroka I can see being around 4. Then if the hype on Wright is real that could be another 4. Not hard to get 6 WAR from 2 spots if one is a FA signing.

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    if gohara turns in a few 4+ WAR seasons i will be extremely happy.
    6+ WAR makes him a top-5 pitcher in the game.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Yes but the chances of Gohara being a 6 WAR guy AND Soroka being a 4 WAR guy AND Wright being a 4 WAR guy are tiny. I think this where being the great uber POSI Brave leads you astray.

    Not everyone has to play the game the same way, but one rule I try to follow is for every Braves prospect I pump up relative to the industry consensus there has to be one I'm down on by a similar amount.
    More reasonable projections have Gohara and Wright as 3-4 win guys, and Soroka as a 2-3 win guy. Then the Braves hope they get another 2-3 win guy out of the rest of the good arms they have in the system. Add a ~2 win SP via FA on a 1-2 year deal, and they should be able to build a ~15 win rotation without spending huge dollars on pitching.

    The rebuild has always centered around producing 3-4 SPs that total 10-12 WAR. Until that happens, the Braves will not be a playoff contender. If that doesn't happen, the Braves will not be a playoff contender until they blow it up and rebuild again. They bet big on developing their own pitching, and if that doesn't happen they don't have the money to build a strong enough rotation AND fill holes in the lineup.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-20-2018 at 12:10 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Yes but the chances of Gohara being a 6 WAR guy AND Soroka being a 4 WAR guy AND Wright being a 4 WAR guy are tiny. I think this where being the great uber POSI Brave leads you astray.

    Not everyone has to play the game the same way, but one rule I try to follow is for every Braves prospect I pump up relative to the industry consensus there has to be one I'm down on by a similar amount.
    Thats why I didn't bring any of the other pitching prospects into the equation so in essence I am pegging the rest to be inconsequential.
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Verducci identifies Gohara as a high risk pitcher after a massive bump in innings last year. The article quotes AA quite a bit. AA is concerned by the big innings jump of our young pitchers

    https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/19/yo...low_twitter_si
    The Braves have done a pretty terrible job developing MLB SPs since...a long time.

    There was a point late in 2017 when Gohara had no business taking the mound. His velocity trended down in every start, and it was alarmingly low in his 9/24 start:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.a...tch=FA&data=pi

    That graph doesn't show that his velocity rebounded to 97.8 in his 9/29 start, but it is worrisome nonetheless.

    I screamed about it in the 9/24 game thread, but Gohara had no business pitching those last 2-3 starts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Gohara's fastball lost about 1.3 MPH in his last start. He has thrown 140 innings this year after throwing just 70 innings last year, which is a huge jump in workload.

    Gohara should not be pitching anymore this season.
    Bumping him from 69 IP in 2016 to 153 IP in 2017 was recklessly stupid. It was a foolish risk to take with the ONLY arm that has shown true TOR promise during this entire rebuild.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-20-2018 at 11:57 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The Braves have done a pretty terrible job developing MLB SPs since...a long time.

    There was a point late in 2017 when Gohara had no business taking the mound. His velocity trended down in every start, and it was alarmingly low in his 9/24 start:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.a...tch=FA&data=pi

    That graph doesn't show that his velocity rebounded to 97.8 in his 9/29 start, but it is worrisome nonetheless.

    I screamed about it in the 9/24 game thread, but Gohara had no business pitching those last 2-3 starts.



    Bumping him from 69 IP in 2016 to 153 IP in 2017 was recklessly stupid. It was a foolish risk to take with the ONLY arm that has shown true TOR promise during this entire rebuild.
    It is unfortunate that the previous regime was so ****ing stupid.

    I seriously think people on this board would have been better

  9. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    It is unfortunate that the previous regime was so ****ing stupid.

    I seriously think people on this board would have been better
    I called the last FO below average pretty much from Day 1, while some on here pimped how great they were no matter what.

    I'm very glad to see AA agrees with my concern over Gohara's huge jump in workload. So far, so good with the new management.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-20-2018 at 12:19 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Mauricio Cabrera was DFA yesterday. I remember when he was ranked as a top 50 Braves prospect of all time on this board last year
    Not really. Most of the smart posters saw Jose Cappellan. Everyone loves a big arm, thus the hope people have for Folty.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Thats why I didn't bring any of the other pitching prospects into the equation so in essence I am pegging the rest to be inconsequential.
    you pump up Fried too
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deester11 View Post
    Not really. Most of the smart posters saw Jose Cappellan. Everyone loves a big arm, thus the hope people have for Folty.
    yeah, that's just worthless hyperbole. no one said anything close to that.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    yeah, that's just worthless hyperbole. no one said anything close to that.
    I don't remember the number... but Rico listed Cabrera somewhere one of the top 30 prospects in Braves history in his official top 50 countdown... After many posters called that ridiculous, he eventually changed it

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    Looks like Rio Ruiz is going to get some games in left during spring training. Good idea. He could get some at bats there during the regular season in the weeks before Acuna gets called up.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Looks like Rio Ruiz is going to get some games in left during spring training. Good idea. He could get some at bats there during the regular season in the weeks before Acuna gets called up.
    Ultimately his bat will need to come around but the more positions he can play the more valuable he will be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Ultimately his bat will need to come around but the more positions he can play the more valuable he will be.
    The plan seems to be to get him games at first, third and left this spring. I've always liked the idea of having someone on the bench with some left-handed power. He did hit 20 home runs last year between AAA and the majors.

    Preston Tucker is another guy who could give us some left-handed power off the bench.

    I like the pieces that AA assembled for the bench. Suzuki and Culberson will have 2 spots. Then we have 2 or 3 remaining spots. Adams will probably play left initially against lefties. But you also have Ruiz, Tucker and Santana in the mix. Santana is on a minor league deal and Tucker and Ruiz have options left.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 02-21-2018 at 11:22 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Ultimately his bat will need to come around but the more positions he can play the more valuable he will be.
    Want to know how to identify a failed prospect?

    Look for the guy desperately trying on gloves different all over the diamond.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Want to know how to identify a failed prospect?

    Look for the guy desperately trying on gloves different all over the diamond.
    Very true. Trying to cling on to the dream as a utility guy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Want to know how to identify a failed prospect?

    Look for the guy desperately trying on gloves different all over the diamond.
    Or a good prospect that is blocked. If the position is already filled. It doesn’t hurt to try the different glove. Rio might be a failed prospect but that statement is not always true. Was Manchado a failed prospect because they moved him to 3B?
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Or a good prospect that is blocked. If the position is already filled. It doesn’t hurt to try the different glove. Rio might be a failed prospect but that statement is not always true. Was Manchado a failed prospect because they moved him to 3B?
    guys like Ruiz and Tucker are not going to be stars obviously...but they could be useful guys to have on a major league bench...a few years ago we relied on lot on guys like Pedro Ciriaco and Eury Perez for pinch hitting duty...i'd rather have someone with a little pop like Ruiz and Tucker
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Or a good prospect that is blocked. If the position is already filled. It doesn’t hurt to try the different glove. Rio might be a failed prospect but that statement is not always true. Was Manchado a failed prospect because they moved him to 3B?
    You are seriously comparing Machado moving to 3B to Ruiz trying out 1B and LF in ST?

    You don't see any difference in those scenarios?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    You are seriously comparing Machado moving to 3B to Ruiz trying out 1B and LF in ST?

    You don't see any difference in those scenarios?
    How you came to that conclusion from what I said is beyond me.
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