Talkingchop article about trading Kimbrel

[Enscheff]

http://www.talkingchop.com/2013/10/2...#comment_tease

He basically says it's now or never to trade Kimbrel. While I don't completely disagree that it MAY be wise to trade him this offseason, I do disagree that this is the only time to get value for him.

Personally, I think Wren should hold onto him for at least this year, and then trade him next offseason or at this year's deadline if the Braves fall out of contention. Why? Glad you asked...

1. Based on Pap's arb numbers, Kimbrel will likely make the following salaries in 2014/15/16: $7M+/$10M+/$13M+. There will be no problem fitting a $7M salary into the budget next year. No other legit closer can signed for that price anyways.

2. If Venters, EOF and Walden were all returning at full strength next year the BP might be able to haqndle the loss of Kimbrel. None of them ended the year healthy and/or effective, so losing Kimbrel would hurt even more.

3. The big budget teams won't flinch at $10M-$13M per year for the best closer in the game, so losing one more year of "cheap" control shouldn't hurt his value by much. Kimbrel's value lies in the fact that he is THE elite closer, not the fact that he is still affordable.

Now, if someone offers something silly for Kimbrel, then Wren has to listen. What constitutes silly? The Rangers offering Profar. The Yanks offering Robertson for Kimbrel plus Uggla and eating all of Uggla's money. Or someone else offering a cost controlled impact player at a position of need, or offering to eat Uggla's contract plus add a 9th inning BP arm.

[cajunrevenge]

As always depends what is offered but I would definitely be shopping him. We could sign Nathan,Balfour, or Wilson for the same money Kimbrel would make in arbitration. Kimbrel's real value comes in the playoffs, how can we make it in the playoffs if our best player only pitches 1.1 innings in a whole series. The 12-15 innings a closer pitches in the playoffs in a world series run is where the real difference between Kimbrel and the average closer show up. Since we are stuck with a manger who treats October like a game in April we might as well have an average closer instead of an elite one.

I dont think Kimbrel will be traded but if he is then I think its in a scenario where we get prospects to flip to the Rays for Price. We would still need to add on to what we get for Kimbrel but it would lessen the impact on the farm system.

[thethe]

Kimbrel was great when he was cheap but he has more value to the Braves moving forward in a potential return then what his value would be as our closer. Bottom line is we can't afford him in two years. Always better to trade a guy a year too early than a year too late.

[50PoundHead]

I know the closer role is somewhat overvalued, but I've seen teams without good closers and if you are a team that is going to have to play at the margins (which the Braves might have to) to contend, the closer takes on a larger and more valuable role. That said, if someone bowled the Braves over with an offer, they'd have to listen. But make no mistake, you build your bullpen from the 9th inning backwards and if Kimbrel isn't around, you won't be starting on solid ground.

I don't know how much Nathan has left in the tank, but he's been very good over his career. Brian Wilson might be good for the money, but he's such a freak.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Ive been on this one for awhile but what is interesting is todays Cincy Enquirer has an article up about trading Chapman for Castellanos.
That was my thought some time back tho i would want more such as Rondon thrown in.
Then Detroit Free Press lists Tigers needs as closer, LFer and 2nd. I highly doubt that they would even sniff at Uggla. But would Kimbrel, Wood, Justin Upton get their attention for Castellanos (our future 3rd), Scherszer (our ACE for 2014) Rondon (a young pen arm) and Porcello (our 5th starter if Hudson doesnt come back and a very good trade chip if he does) Money is just about a wash BTW.

[Heyward]

I said this on scout and got bashed for it.

Robertson has 1 yr left of arby, heck no.

Profar i would definately do even if we have to throw in something, i doubt that happens though.

There are guys like Benoit, Wilson, Balfour, Mujica, etc you could sign for 4-5 mil for 2 years, and use that extra money on a bat, or keeping in-house talent.

[zitothebrave]

Disagree with it.

If someone offers us something bonkers for him then you do it, but no one is going to do that.

[Heyward]

Disagree with it.

If someone offers us something bonkers for him then you do it, but no one is going to do that.

What's bonkers?

A Taveras/Bogarts/Profar type.

That's unlikely.

Ideally he'd sign a team-friendly extension but if not, you have to shop him, have too.

You just cant have a closer making 15-20 million, they dont have that type of value.

[zitothebrave]

Yes that type of player.

Otherwise it doesn't make sense to trade the greatest closer in baseball as one of the best teams in baseball. Unless we can do something like Kimbrel and Uggla for Zobrist or something along that line I won't do it.

[weso1]

I say keep him. Need to try to win the world series these next two seasons whilest we have this roster. At some point you just have to go for it. Now is the time to go for it while we have Freeman, Heyward and J UP on the roster for the next couple of seasons.

[gtcway]

If someone is willing to overpay, Wren definitely has to listen and consider it. But, my feeling is that next year, if BJ can just be average again, and we can get rid of Uggla and everyone else stays about the same or improves, our playoff outlook is much better. Do we want to enter the playoffs next year without Kimbrel?
Now, if the Braves are out of the playoff picture at the deadline, push to trade him, but again, only if someone overpays.

[thethe]

I think a team will trade two top prospects for Kimbrel. He is a closer. You have to make that deal. Braves can find someone else.

[Runnin]

http://www.talkingchop.com/2013/10/2...#comment_tease

2. If Venters, EOF and Walden were all returning at full strength next year the BP might be able to haqndle the loss of Kimbrel. None of them ended the year healthy and/or effective, so losing Kimbrel would hurt even more.

Venters, EOF, Walden and likely Kimbrel as well, will not return at full strength but that's not a big worry. I would definitely listen to offers but I wouldn't trade him for anything less than an elite ace.

[thethe]

Venters, EOF, Walden and likely Kimbrel as well, will not return at full strength but that's not a big worry. I would definitely listen to offers but I wouldn't trade him for anything less than an elite ace.

Thats unrealistic IMO. Braves dont even need an elite ace. It doesn't guarantee anything. Braves need to ensure that there will be talent through the pipeline in two years.

[cajunrevenge]

I really like the idea of signing Brian Wilson for closer. He will be 32 next year and he showed he was healthy after TJ surgery. Pitchers's arms tend to be healthier the first 5 years after TJ surgery and closers typically can pitch well into their 30's. He also has great playoff/world series experience having allowed 1 run in 19.2 playoff innings total. I would love to sign him and use him and Kimbrel for one year together then trade Kimbrel next offseason. We have the money in the short term, its not until 2015 that things start to get tight. As much as people say we needed an ace to beat the Dodgers we would have gone to game 5 with a matchup Minor/Greinke that if we could have just got thru the 8th inning. I know paying 2 closers isnt considered the wisest investment, but its more about October. I think this was the idea behind acquiring Walden but he was not healthy in October.

[Perfect Cell]

Braves aren't a team that sells high, certainly not on relievers. eof, and venters are two relievers that could have been traded for value I doubt kimbrel is even considered as a trade candidate


and to be honest I wouldn't trade him either

[yeezus]

I think Wilson is always on the verge of getting blown up. He was only really good for a short time period. I'd pass.

[yeezus]

Braves aren't a team that sells high, certainly not on relievers. eof, and venters are two relievers that could have been traded for value I doubt kimbrel is even considered as a trade candidate


and to be honest I wouldn't trade him either

I'd say they're different scenarios in a lot of ways. Venters and EOF weren't closers, or as dominant as Kimbrel. Kimbrel is historically brilliant.

[Heyward]

We arent getting an ace for Kimbrel.

Boston made the WS with a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Bucholtz, and Peavy.

Good, yes, but outside of maybe Lester, not an ace level pitcher.

Pretty much like ours really.

[Perfect Cell]

I'd say they're different scenarios in a lot of ways. Venters and EOF weren't closers, or as dominant as Kimbrel. Kimbrel is historically brilliant.

I don't know if I agree. especially in 2011. Venters as as good as most closers in baseball and should have been jettisoned to a team that would have put him in the closers role.