Talkingchop article about trading Kimbrel

[zitothebrave]

I don't think anyone is going to offer a package of prospects worthy enough to warrant trading Kimbrell. Even Kimbrell for Castenallos isn't enough honestly.

Ride him till he's a FA then let him go for a draft pick. yeah paying him 15 million in couple yrs won't be fun, but we are going to need him if we plan on winning a WS with the short window we have with these players.

I hope we can afford him through FA, will be interesting to see if we can. But we can afford him as long as we don't make a foolish acquisition for the next 2 years. And depending on if we can keep both Jason and Justin keeping him til the end of his contract isn't out of the question.

The person who we basically have an either or with in regards to Kimbrel is Medlen. And yes I take Kimbrel over Medlen. I don't think there's a massive dropoff from Medlen to our next run of young guys like I do between Kimbrel and anyone we can bring into close. People want say finding a closer is easy and they're right, but finding a closer as good as Kimbrel is hard. How hard is it? From 1980 through today (which the 80s is when the use of a closer basically started) Kimbrel is 59th in fWAR in 227 IP, You know how many guys above him have 450 IP or less? Bryan Harvey and Eric Gagne. If Kimbrel over the next 2 years averages a 3 WAR per year (given his past not out of the question) he will jump all the way up to number 18, just behind John Wetteland. Lest say overt the next 4 years he averages 2.5 WAR per year, he will jump to number 9 or number 10. Depending on how Papelbon does over that same time frame, passing guys like Rob Nenn Tom Gordon, and K-Rod. Same time frame if he averages 3 would kick him up to (again depending on how active guys go) he will go from 6-8 (Nathan and Papelbon are active so who knows where they'll move up or slide down to)

Food for thought, in 227 innings, Kimbrel has a 9.2 fWAR, most likely HOFer Trevor Hoffman has a 23.0 fWAR in 1089.1 innings. If Kimbrel stays healthy there's little doubt in my mind he's at worst the second best closer ever to date.

This isn't a normal joe we're talking about. This isn't even a "great" closer like Papelbon or K-Rod we're talking about someone who can contend with Rivera for the top spot. Kimbrel is the Mike Trout of closers. If we're wise we'll sign him to a 3/27 deal this offseason to buy out his arby. Structure it pretty even so we can keep him through FA or trade him that last year because he'll be a bargain price.

[zitothebrave]

I don't think a single person stated "anyone" could be the closer. We are arguing that the dropoff from Kimbrel to someone like Nathan, Balfour or Benoit would not be very significant. Most are suggesting the team would be better off with someone like Nathan plaus the return for Kimbrel, assuming the player(s) Wren gets for Kimbrel is significant.

The thing is that you can make that case for almost any pitcher unless they're Wainwright, Kershaw, etc. The Dropoff from Medlen to XYZ isn't so much so lets trade him, the dropoff from Minor to ABC isn't so much so lets trade him.

Eventually you have to keep your talent together to see if they can make it work.

Except McCann the Braves can safely return their team from last year, they can then use the Mac money to improve the BP, or maybe take a big rotational gamble (Johnson or Halladay) or use it to restructure deals with Jason, Justin, and Freddie.

[clvclv]

Thats unrealistic IMO. Braves dont even need an elite ace. It doesn't guarantee anything. Braves need to ensure that there will be talent through the pipeline in two years.

If we've learned anything, it should be that NOTHING'S "unrealistic". Unlikely maybe, but never "unrealistic". I seem to recall quite a few people telling me that Justin Upton would never be a Brave - that that was "unrealistic". I seem to recall quite a few people stating that it was completely "unrealistic" to think that Evan Gattis would be successful at this level.

Never say never.

I actually can see a potential deal where including Kimbrel nets us an "Ace".

[yeezus]

Then there are those (like me) who don't have a problem "selling high" (don't like using that phrase because Kimbrel is elite, selling high indicates he can't repeat what he's done and I think we know he can and will) but still realize the replacing him means you are filling one hole by creating another. I don't agree that the drop off would be minimal so we will agree to disagree I guess.

Or selling high as in: his value is at it's highest. even if he repeats the last 2 year averages this year, he will be another year closer to FA and and cost more money, and you won't get as much. This would be the perfect time to trade him if we got a great deal (which I don't think we would get something good enough to do it). But I think this is the time where we get something crazy for him if we were ever going to, if that makes sense.

[Enscheff]

Or selling high as in: his value is at it's highest. even if he repeats the last 2 year averages this year, he will be another year closer to FA and and cost more money, and you won't get as much. This would be the perfect time to trade him if we got a great deal (which I don't think we would get something good enough to do it). But I think this is the time where we get something crazy for him if we were ever going to, if that makes sense.

I agree, the return has to be significant to trade Kimbrel now. I'm talking a Profar-type prospect. Otherwise, keep him for this year.

[Enscheff]

For example, what if the Angels took Kimbrel plus all of Uggla's contract for Kendrick, and then Wren goes out and signs Nathan to close?

Isn't that the type of deal involving Kimbrel that Wren has to seriously consider? Wouldn't the Braves be better off with Nathan and Kendrick instead of Kimbrel and Uggla?

[Knucksie]

Of course, you all saw it, but the main offenders of the "Kimbrel will bring a boatload of prospects" probably would rather not be reminded.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/atlanta_braves/index.html

And, as Olney notes, the return on Kimbrel in a trade might not be quite what fans would hope for if he is going to be paid like a starter.

[weso1]

I'm just going to say it... Make Kimbrel a starter.

[cajunrevenge]

The time to trade kimbrel is at the trade deadline. Right now anyone team can throw the same or less money to get a decent closer that they don't have to give up any prospects.

Come July if a big market team has issues with their closer then the braves leverage skyrockets. Wren just needs a good back up option. Even if its prospects in return we can flip them for another big player. Maybe even someone like David Price.

[zitothebrave]

Flipping Kimbrel while we're winning is a bad idea.

[Enscheff]

It will be odd to see Kimbrel treated like a salary dump or non-tender candidate next offseason.

[nsacpi]

The case of Jim Johnson illustrates how there has been a divergence between the arbitration system and the latest thinking on the part of front offices when it comes to the valuation of closers. At a salary of $10M, there wasn't much of a market for him. Basically his "surplus value" (expected production minus salary) was viewed as close to zero. And all the Orioles got in return for him was Jemile Weeks, who is basically a replacement level second baseman.

It is possible that we'll reach the same point with Kimbrel. Not this year. Not next year. But for his third year of arbitration. Especially if he is successful in arbitration.

[Enscheff]

The case of Jim Johnson illustrates how there has been a divergence between the arbitration system and the latest thinking on the part of front offices when it comes to the valuation of closers. At a salary of $10M, there wasn't much of a market for him. Basically his "surplus value" (expected production minus salary) was viewed as close to zero. And all the Orioles got in return for him was Jemile Weeks, who is basically a replacement level second baseman.

It is possible that we'll reach the same point with Kimbrel. Not this year. Not next year. But for his third year of arbitration. Especially if he is successful in arbitration.

This is an interesting thought experiment though...

Let's pretend that Jim Johnson is "worth" $10M, and that just so happens to be his salary as a 2 WAR closer. Further, let's pretend Kimbrel is a 3 WAR closer and "worth" $15M, and that is also his salary 2 years from now.

You are building a WS contending team with a $180M+ payroll. Don't you try to cram as much WAR into each of your roster spots as possible, thus making Kimbrel more valuable despite the equal $/WAR ratios? Isn't the fact that spuerstars concentrate so much WAR into a single roster spot the very reason superstars are paid so well?

[nsacpi]

This is an interesting thought experiment though...

Let's pretend that Jim Johnson is "worth" $10M, and that just so happens to be his salary as a 2 WAR closer. Further, let's pretend Kimbrel is a 3 WAR closer and "worth" $15M, and that is also his salary 2 years from now.

You are building a WS contending team with a $180M+ payroll. Don't you try to cram as much WAR into each of your roster spots as possible, thus making Kimbrel more valuable despite the equal $/WAR ratios? Isn't the fact that spuerstars concentrate so much WAR into a single roster spot the very reason superstars are paid so well?

Well, I think the question for any team is to consider the alternatives. Spend 15M on Kimbrel. Or spend 10M on a closer like Johnson or Nathan plus upgrade another position for 5M. Or go even cheaper on the closer and have a bigger upgrade elsewhere.

[Dalyn]

I'm just going to say it... Make Kimbrel a starter.

Not only would the bullpen lose the best closer in the game, it would have to cover all those 1.1-inning starts. Disastrous.

[nsacpi]

Not only would the bullpen lose the best closer in the game, it would have to cover all those 1.1-inning starts. Disastrous.

He could get stretched out to go 3 innings.

[Dalyn]

He could get stretched out to go 3 innings.

Hardly. You don't pitch your best pitcher more than 1.1 innings. Duh! Everyfredi knows that.

[Nerfherders]

One of Schoenfeld's SweetSpot articles delved into the valuation of closers last week. He argued that not WAR, but WPA is a better way to value relievers, especially when it comes to the 8th and 9th inning. He also remarked that the fact two of the stingiest teams (Oak and TB) are paying closers this year means that perhaps some are properly re-evaluating dependability and experience in that position. He included a list of highest WPA relievers last year and interestingly, Kimbrel was way down on that list. Probably for lack of high leverage situations.

[Knucksie]

Well, I think the question for any team is to consider the alternatives. Spend 15M on Kimbrel. Or spend 10M on a closer like Johnson or Nathan plus upgrade another position for 5M. Or go even cheaper on the closer and have a bigger upgrade elsewhere.

They don't need to drop that much cash on a closer. They used to have clowns, like McMichael & Ligtenberg doing it, after they gave up on the retreads (Reardon, Olson, Harvey). Walden could do it without too many hiccups. You guys didn't want to believe it, but you can construct an entire effective bullpen for $10MM. Go back and see the annual Sports Weekly team, if you don't believe it. Spending lavishly on closers is wasteful spending.

[Heyward]

Kimbrel and possibly trading him is tough.

Can you really justify paying him 13-15 million next year, and 17-20 million the season after that?

He's awesome and all but you can make a lot of moves with that money.

It's a tough move on Wren because there may not be a huge market for him.