Winter Meetings Thread

[emk418]

According to this list, prospects acquired are No. 1, 5, 8 and 28 in Red Sox system: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=bos

For a guy like Sale or Archer, i think thats about the expected return. Would you deal Albies, Newcombe, Soroka, D. Cruz for Archer?... i'd consider that...

Yes I do that

[emk418]

I think that is a better overall package, but if i'm the Red Sox I'm taking Moncada every time. Moncada is a bfd and much more of a sure thing than our guys. I think Swanson will be solid but I'm not thinking star.

The Braves have a lot of high ceiling guys like Acuna, but they are all so far away and that makes them volatile. I'd want Moncada who probably can play this year if they want him to. The rest of the package is not that important. I would have thought they would have held out for Groome over Kopech.

3rd and 4th pieces are better in that from braves. But Moncada is a more valuable piece then Swanson. Kopech and Newcomb are similar but I prefer Kopech

[gilesfan]

Anyone considering offering a similar package that got Chris Sale for Chris Archer has clearly lost their mind. The pitchers aren't comparable.

[striker42]

Anyone considering offering a similar package that got Chris Sale for Chris Archer has clearly lost their mind. The pitchers aren't comparable.

I wouldn't have offered the package that got Sale to get Sale. That being said, I wouldn't bet on Archer being worth that much less than Sale. Archer is a very good pitcher (capable of being just as good as Sale but not as consistent) who is a good bet to have a better year this season and is under team control for 5 more seasons at an affordable price. That contract makes up a good bit of the difference in value between the two. I've preferred Archer to Sale for that reason.

[Russ2dollas]

3rd and 4th pieces are better in that from braves. But Moncada is a more valuable piece then Swanson. Kopech and Newcomb are similar but I prefer Kopech

I think Newcombe has much better secondary stuff and he's left handed. Neither is a sure thing but I'd much rather have Newcombe.

I agree. I said I'm going Moncada every time.

It's not a deal where you 5 quarters. You take the dollar.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Jon HeymanVerified account
‏@JonHeyman
Nats are going for McCutchen now. Not easy to see them going 0 for 3. Dodgers, others are looking at cutch, too, tho.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 9m9 minutes ago
If the #RedSox had not met the #WhiteSox's demands, Chris Sale would been traded to #Nationals. Nats made last-ditch effort today to get him

[Enscheff]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 9m9 minutes ago
If the #RedSox had not met the #WhiteSox's demands, Chris Sale would been traded to #Nationals. Nats made last-ditch effort today to get him

Sounds like the Braves were right in the mix! If they were willing to include Jenkins it would have worked! Damn!!

[smootness]

Sounds like the Braves were right in the mix! If they were willing to include Jenkins it would have worked! Damn!!

There are very few people who legitimately thought we might get Sale, and even those likely at least thought it was quite a long shot.

Your ridiculous over-the-top gloating over this makes no sense.

[Enscheff]

There are very few people who legitimately thought we might get Sale, and even those likely at least thought it was quite a long shot.

Your ridiculous over-the-top gloating over this makes no sense.

I was called an idiot, a nitwit, and countless other versions of "stupid" by many people for asserting Sale would never be acquired. I just want those fools to know exactly how moronic they are.

I'll stop now. Please continue to derp along with the rest about how it could have worked for the Braves.

[Chico]

There are very few people who legitimately thought we might get Sale, and even those likely at least thought it was quite a long shot.

Your ridiculous over-the-top gloating over this makes no sense.

It is a rather odd cry for attention and affirmation. This is a fun time of the year. I'd like to read everyone's opinions and get different view points without threads being hijacked.

[chop2chip]

I was called an idiot, a nitwit, and countless other versions of "stupid" by many people for asserting Sale would never be acquired. I just want those fools to know exactly how moronic they are.

I'll stop now.

Martyr

[Enscheff]

It is a rather odd cry for attention and affirmation. This is a fun time of the year. I'd like to read everyone's opinions and get different view points without threads being hijacked.

There are informed opinions, and there are derp opinions. Uninformed opinions are not as valuable as informed opinions. I prefer to see mostly informed opinions.

[Southcack77]

Disentangling the two is fine, which is what everyone does. Obviously, Anthony Rizzo is really good and he's being paid little money. That's very intuitive.

The difference, as an economist would like to say, is at the margins. Bryce Harper in has last two years as a free agent is going to provide, by $/WAR's standard, something like $60-80 in surplus value. Are five years of Chris Archer (whose worth somewhere around $80-100 in surplus value) worth two years of Bryce Harper plus a prospect? No.

I understand the limitations of that analysis. I do understand teams do have some form of $/WAR that likely adjusts for market, position, offense/defense, etc., so this is more of a critique of using linear $/WAR. IMO, it's one of those things that's not very useful unless it's done correctly.

My complaint is that some people who aren't actually in baseball front offices look at things like war and surplus value and act as though they are very precise measurements that no one would deviate from much.

I don't think that is true at all.

The value of having an ace or a elite hitter is much greater to a team's winning chances than the surplus value of having a reasonably priced mid rotation piece or slightly above average hitter for an extended period of time.

Sure these figures help visualize long term roster management a little bit better perhaps but ultimately the game is at some point more about winning and the best players than it is maximizing value over an extended period of time.

Rosters are going to fluctuate and values will be recalculated and redistributed over time. And sometimes sacrificing a year or two is the move.

I just think there is a false sense of certainty about the accuracy of numbers at times as well as a lack of vision as to what the actual game requires.

Particularly projections of minor league players. Don't tell me about Abies surplus MLB value before he's completely mastered AA. For example.

[Chico]

There are informed opinions, and there are derp opinions. Uninformed opinions are not as valuable as informed opinions. I prefer to see mostly informed opinions.

I like to see all opinions, even people I don't agree with. The thing is when you talk baseball in a calm manner you are an intelligent poster, but then you get defensive and caddie and ruin it.

[Chico]

My complaint is that some people who aren't actually in baseball front offices look at things like war and surplus value and act as though they are very precise measurements that no one would deviate from much.

I don't think that is true at all.

The value of having an ace or a elite hitter is much greater to a team's winning chances than the surplus value of having a reasonably price mid rotation piece or slightly above average hitter for an extended period of time.

Sure this figures help visualize long term roster management a little bit better perhaps but ultimately the game is at some point more about winning and the beat players than it is maximizing value over an extended period of time.

Rosters are going to fluctuate and values will be recalculated and redistribute bytes over time. And sometimes sacrificing a year or two is the move.

I just think there is a false sense of certainty about the accuracy of numbers at times as well as a lack of vision as to what the actual game requires.

Particularly projects of minor league players. Don't tell me about Abies surplus MLB value before he's completely mastered AA. For example.

Well said.

[GovClintonTyree]

I was called an idiot, a nitwit, and countless other versions of "stupid" by many people for asserting Sale would never be acquired. I just want those fools to know exactly how moronic they are.

I'll stop now. Please continue to derp along with the rest about how it could have worked for the Braves.

Actually, I called you a ****wit. But it was over style, not substance. I still think you're a ****wit.

[GovClintonTyree]

My complaint is that some people who aren't actually in baseball front offices look at things like war and surplus value and act as though they are very precise measurements that no one would deviate from much.

I don't think that is true at all.

The value of having an ace or a elite hitter is much greater to a team's winning chances than the surplus value of having a reasonably price mid rotation piece or slightly above average hitter for an extended period of time.

Sure this figures help visualize long term roster management a little bit better perhaps but ultimately the game is at some point more about winning and the beat players than it is maximizing value over an extended period of time.

Rosters are going to fluctuate and values will be recalculated and redistribute bytes over time. And sometimes sacrificing a year or two is the move.

I just think there is a false sense of certainty about the accuracy of numbers at times as well as a lack of vision as to what the actual game requires.

Particularly projects of minor league players. Don't tell me about Abies surplus MLB value before he's completely mastered AA. For example.

Well said. I've been thinking this, but not with those words.

[GovClintonTyree]

There are informed opinions, and there are derp opinions. Uninformed opinions are not as valuable as informed opinions. I prefer to see mostly informed opinions.

Not me. This is America, land of Trump. Intelligence and rational thought is not valued, even frowned upon. My ignorance is as valuable as your knowledge.

[Enscheff]

Actually, I called you a ****wit. But it was over style, not substance. I still think you're a ****wit.

Don't you have some derp ideas to spread somewhere? Like how the Braves are still going to get Archer?

Is your ex really crazy, or just tired of living with such an insufferable idiot?