Here we go again. No trades. No FA signings. Nobody gets hurt. Nobody busts. Seems real likely.Originally Posted by CJ9
If Flowers is starting catcher in 2020 and Maitan is not anywhere in the starting lineup, the members of this forum have seriously consider their reason for being here.
I think one of the points of this exercise is to illustrate where the system is lacking. For example, the lack of anyone to displace Flowers is an indication that some sort of trade or FA signing will occur between now and then at catcher. You are misunderstanding why people do this. It is not people assuming no transactions but rather to illustrate where the system is deep and where it is weak.
Last edited by nsacpi; 12-10-2016 at 04:27 PM.
That was Baseball America's opinion, not mine.
I think even they know there's zero chance of that being accurate. Their job is forecasting prospects, not predicting trades or signings.
It's kind of like a depth chart for the system. There's no way to predict signings and trades.
"Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.
It’s over."
Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.
For good or ill (and I think it's for ill), fat Andruw probably lurks in the minds of most voters more than great Andruw. It really isn't fair that he isn't judged on what he did, but (as expressed most emphatically by Bobby Valentine) for this impression of what he could (or in Valentine-speak "should") be. Dale Murphy suffers from somewhat the same fate although the case for Andruw is stronger.
Haha what else are they going to do?
Catcher: Some college guy they draft two years from now
First Base: Paul Goldschmidt after Freddie Freeman tears his shoulder and never plays again
Second Base: Albies
Third Base: Riley
Shortstop: Maitan
Left Field: How am I supposed to know?
Center Field: Inciarte
Right Field: Swanson after a torn meniscus renders him less mobile
No 1 Starter: Mader after development no one could foresee rockets him to ace status
No 2 Starter: Soroka
No 3 Starter: Newcomb
No 4 Starter: Weigel
No 5 Starter: Some draftee
Closer: Someone in the Pirates organization
Teheran is traded, Allard and Touki never make it, and Anderson is still toiling in AA.
That would be a ton of help for everyone.
bravesfanMatt (12-10-2016), cajunrevenge (12-10-2016), mqt (12-11-2016), zbhargrove (12-10-2016)
Realistically, the lineup that gets rolled out in April will look dramatically different from what will be fielded come September. For projecting out to 2020, if 1/2 of the players listed are still Braves that would be quite a bit.
Obviously, they're gambling with the "change of scenary" and hope that a switch to catcher could get Jackson's career back on track. Nevertheless, no organization's system is going to be "perfect" in that there will be can't miss propects at every position. Without looking, they haven't historically developed many over the years (Javy Lopez being a notable exception) and have generally gotten them through other means. It'd be a shock if Flowers is still around in 2 years.
Remember, that was my reason for pointing out the huge emphasis on quality/quantity of young pitching, as they did 30 years ago. We all know that some of them will become Braves starters and relievers, while others become assets to trade from the position of strength to hopefully acquire a decent catcher. They clearly had a lot of hopes pinned on Bethancourt.
McCann is the other one besides Javy that we developed. Flowers contract runs out either after this season or after 2018 if we pick up the option.
McCann, definitely. Del Crandall and Joe Torre too!
No one is arguing that.
I take away two conclusions from their exercise.
First, the long and short-term need for a catcher.
Second is the distance that some of our best starting pitching prospects are from the majors. I agree with their high rankings for Allard, Soroka and Anderson, and their choice to pencil them in as parts of the long-term rotation. But Allard and Soroka are going to start the upcoming season in High A and Anderson in Low A. It is possible that some of the guys a little older than them will move up in the pecking order and fill out the major league rotation sooner. But if not we are looking at ETAs of 2019 for Soroka and Allard and 2020 for Anderson. This assumes fairly aggressive promotion for those three. It will be interesting to see how the front office bridges the wait during the 2018 and possibly 2019 seasons. Do we keep filling any gaps with guys like Colon and Dickey. Or do we try for something more ambitious.
Last edited by nsacpi; 12-11-2016 at 11:23 AM.
I expect Teheran, Folty, and Newcomb to be the main 3 rotation pieces going into next offseason. Fried should be really close to ready for ST. So if we could trade for Archer then our rotation should be really good to start 2018. Add in Lucroy and the team is ready to compete.
If everything goes right in terms of our internal pitching options, we could start 2018 with Teheran, Dickey, Folty, Wisler and Newcomb. It is pushing the envelope to project guys like Fried, Weigel and Sims to be ready at the start of 2018 to be in the rotation. Maybe around the middle of the season, but pretty unlikely to be competing for a spot in the ML rotation during spring training.
So if everything goes right we have our five. But the odds are really against everything going right. Injuries, regression, failure to develop, etc. are likely to come into play. Chances are we will need to acquire one or two ML starting pitchers between now and the start of 2018. We could go with more stopgaps like Colon. But I strongly suspect we will make a more ambitious move. Not an ace. But definitely more ambitious than guys like Colon. Archer would be nice, but I think the cost will be prohibitive. We will likely take on someone with a less team friendly contract who would cost less in terms of prospects.
Last edited by nsacpi; 12-11-2016 at 12:12 PM.
Its probably a big gamble but I don't think the Braves want to block any of the young pitchers for someone that profiles as a MOR type guy. If its an ace thats a different story.
Natural Immunity Croc
I think that will be a consideration but not an overriding consideration. That kind of consideration will tilt us toward guys with only 2-3 years left on their contracts. Shopping in that neighborhood will limit financial risks as well. Jordan Zimmermann would be an example. He would have 3 years left on his deal after the 2017 season. We can always flip someone like that if he ends up blocking one of our prospects.
The reason I said Fried is bc of his age. If he has a really good season this year he should end the season in AA and could get a strong look in ST if he proves he's healthy.
I'm kind of expecting Fried to start the year in AA.
Natural Immunity Croc
Will you just let that go already?
No.
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