June Rule IV pre-draft Thread

[50PoundHead]

I guess these things are cyclical, but we seem to be in a period where power hitting is very hard to find.

Alonzo Jones is a Georgia kid (IF/OF) with gap power potential from both sides of the plate. He's ranked in the 50s and 60s on the various services, so it means he'll likely be gone by the end of the second round. He might be someone to take a long look at.

Former MLB player Charlie Hayes' son--Ke'Bryan Hayes--is a Texas high school 3B with a lot of power potential. He's probably gone by the supplemental round.

If they take all pitchers with their early picks, I'm fine with that. Just might be nice to sprinkle in some bats who project fairly well.

[Bravesfannchar]

According to twitter, we worked out prep OF Garrett Whitley recently... From brewers intern/blogger.... Dan Zielinski 3

[nsacpi]

Alonzo Jones is a Georgia kid (IF/OF) with gap power potential from both sides of the plate. He's ranked in the 50s and 60s on the various services, so it means he'll likely be gone by the end of the second round. He might be someone to take a long look at.

Former MLB player Charlie Hayes' son--Ke'Bryan Hayes--is a Texas high school 3B with a lot of power potential. He's probably gone by the supplemental round.

If they take all pitchers with their early picks, I'm fine with that. Just might be nice to sprinkle in some bats who project fairly well.

You go with how the draft board plays out. In practice that should result in a mix of all types of players.

I have a few semi fixed points. One is you should emphasize high ceiling early and then start given more weight to the player's floor as you go into the middle rounds. In the late rounds you should take some flyers on ex-cons, homeless people, janitors and cricket players. And finally, I really like using the second round pick on a hitter. We have a little bit of a track record there with McCann, Freeman and Simmons. Maybe its just luck, but the second round is still early enough that it is still possible to sort out the hitting prospects to reasonable degree. It gets very hard within a few rounds.

[smootness]

According to twitter, we worked out prep OF Garrett Whitley recently... From brewers intern/blogger.... Dan Zielinski 3

I would love this if Stephenson is gone.

There's probably more risk than normal with him at 14, but there's also a crap ton of upside. People have said he has a lot of similarities to Mike Trout...big kid but great athlete who is a legit CF with really good bat speed. Of course, Mike Trout was an ultra-best-case scenario, but one can dream.

[50PoundHead]

I would love this if Stephenson is gone.

There's probably more risk than normal with him at 14, but there's also a crap ton of upside. People have said he has a lot of similarities to Mike Trout...big kid but great athlete who is a legit CF with really good bat speed. Of course, Mike Trout was an ultra-best-case scenario, but one can dream.

From scouting reports I've read, Whitley sounds like he's got the goods, but I always worry about taking Northern guys this early. He blew up at a showcase last year, but he's played about a half dozen games this spring because his high school is north of Albany, New York.

[smootness]

From scouting reports I've read, Whitley sounds like he's got the goods, but I always worry about taking Northern guys this early. He blew up at a showcase last year, but he's played about a half dozen games this spring because his high school is north of Albany, New York.

Yeah. Again, similar to Trout. That's why he fell to 19. There's certainly risk but also way more upside than you can typically get at 14.

[KB21]

A name that seems to be getting mentioned more and more with Atlanta lately is LHP Kolby Allard, a strong prospect out of California that missed all but two starts with a back issue this season. His scouting report says he is the polished lefty in the draft and can run his fastball into the mid 90s consistently while sitting comfortably at 92-93 with command of the pitch and a great breaking ball.

He's also in the area that Tom Batista scouts, who the Braves brought back to the organization this year.

[smootness]

A name that seems to be getting mentioned more and more with Atlanta lately is LHP Kolby Allard, a strong prospect out of California that missed all but two starts with a back issue this season. His scouting report says he is the polished lefty in the draft and can run his fastball into the mid 90s consistently while sitting comfortably at 92-93 with command of the pitch and a great breaking ball.

He's also in the area that Tom Batista scouts, who the Braves brought back to the organization this year.

I would be fine with him at 28 if he fell.

[50PoundHead]

Yeah. Again, similar to Trout. That's why he fell to 19. There's certainly risk but also way more upside than you can typically get at 14.

I get that and I trust our scouts. If they think Whitley's the guy at #14, I'm fine with that.

[Bravesfannchar]

I'd love to get Stephenson and then Aiken / Whitely at 28...

Stephenson, Whitley and then Aiken at 41 would be absolute theft.... Best case scenario...

[smootness]

I'd love to get Stephenson and then Aiken / Whitely at 28...

Stephenson, Whitley and then Aiken at 41 would be absolute theft.... Best case scenario...

This would be amazing, but there's basically no way Whitley will be there at 28 or that Aiken will be there at 41. I've read that the Yankees probably won't let Whitley get past 16.

[Tapate50]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/

BA Top 500 Draft Prospect list

[rico43]

This would be amazing, but there's basically no way Whitley will be there at 28 or that Aiken will be there at 41. I've read that the Yankees probably won't let Whitley get past 16.

Aiken at 28 is my prediction.

[cajunrevenge]

I like Allard but I am conflicted on his injury. On one hand I wonder how the fudge he got a fracture in his back from pitching but on the other hand it saved him from getting his arm abused and I am a big believer that the less you pitch early on the healthier they will be. Greinke is a good example, he started pitching 6 months before he was drafted and has never had an arm injury. I like so many of the options that we have thats its hard to choose at this point.

[KB21]

I like Allard but I am conflicted on his injury. On one hand I wonder how the fudge he got a fracture in his back from pitching but on the other hand it saved him from getting his arm abused and I am a big believer that the less you pitch early on the healthier they will be. Greinke is a good example, he started pitching 6 months before he was drafted and has never had an arm injury. I like so many of the options that we have thats its hard to choose at this point.

Pars defects are actually pretty common at his age. It's one of the first thing I look for when a 17 year old comes to me complaining of back pain. The only time this gets bad is if the stress fracture shifts and becomes a severe spondylolisthesis. If you rest this appropriately, it will heal and not have any residual effects.

[Bravesfannchar]

Nice addition, KB!! TY

[Tapate50]

Lance (Iowa): With the stockpile of picks the braves have, do you see them making a splash with some hard to sign over slot guys and if so who?
John Manuel: I do see the Braves doing some aggressive things to take advantage of the depth in the class and their stockpile of selections (5 in the first 75 or so).

I just think they’re going to get some HS kids perceived as tough to sign, some of the high school pitchers who are supposed to be headed to college. The HS pitching class is such a mess, they may have very different preferences from how our board lines up. They’ll take someone they are convicted in there because they would like to get back to what they used to do best, drafting and developing high school pitching.


Will (Georgia): Would the Braves need to draft Chris Betts with the 14th pick or is it probable that he will be available at pick 28 still?

John Manuel: I think he’ll be there at 28, he hasn’t thrown much down the stretch due to a right arm injury, and a high school 1B shouldn’t go out at 14. (Dominic Smith, whom I loved, has had a brutal start to his pro career.) If you draft Betts, you’re doing it as a prep catcher, and I don’t see the Braves on a prep catcher at 14 unless it’s the one from Georgia …

[50PoundHead]

With all this draft talk, I thought "What the heck!" I've had a couple of days free and made a couple of small investments to check out some of the top prospects and try to get a handle on the Braves' draft. Like most have said, I expect most of the focus on high school and junior college players with a heavy concentration on pitching, pitching, and more pitching. That said, I also expect a few hitters in the higher rounds, especially guys who project as OFs. I've kind of cheated because I want to be open to multiple possibilities, so I listed the guy I believe the Braves will pick if available and a couple of options if that particular player has already been taken. So here goes.

Pick at #14: Tyler Stephenson if he's there. As someone said above, he fills a lot of boxes. You never draft for need in the baseball draft, but the system is very thin at catcher and Stephenson is a high-ceiling guy at a position of need. If Stephenson is gone (or his bonus demand is too rich for the Braves' blood), I think BA's projection of JUCO RHP Phil Bickford from the Community College of Southern Nevada is a solid guess. Pennsylvania HS RHP Mike Nikorak would make sense as well.

Pick at #28: HS RHP Donnie Everett from Clarksville, Tennessee, is my guess here. I've seen Indiana HS RHP Ashe Russell mentioned as a possibility here in another mock. Two other guys that might make sense are Florida HS LHP Juan Hillman (Tom Gordon's son) and IMG prospect RHP Jacob Nix.

Pick at #41: Florida HS RHP Triston McKenzie has Braves' draft pick written all over him. Tall, thin kid with good command and possibility for big-time projection. Another Florida HS RHP Austin Smith could also be a fit as well as Georgia HS RHP Dakota Chalmers.

Pick at #54: I'm going with a Jones pick here because you have to have a Jones for this and a Jones for that (at least that is what Boz Scaggs said). I'll go with either 2B/OF Jahmai Jones or IF/OF Alonzo Jones. Both are Georgia high school kids with plus hitting tools. Jahmai projects to have a little more power, but Alonzo has blistering speed. Scouts believe both will end up in the OF in the pros.

Pick at #75: Florida HS RHP Cole Sands (no relation to Tar Sands) is my logical pick here. One list has him markedly higher than #75, so if he's gone, I'm still thinking HS pitcher, so I'm thinking other HS RHPs Nick Neidert (GA), Jacob Woodford (FL), or Chandler Day (OH).

Pick at #89: Could go a lot of ways (Duh!), but they might take a C if they missed out on Stephenson. Georgia HS C Joey Bart and California HS C Lucas Herbert (may be long gone given the light catching class, but one can hope). Another interesting hitter is Tennessee HS 3B Trey Cabbage, whose hitting ability could make him a lot of lettuce. I want to fit Florida JUCO (and Georgia native) LHP Mac Marshall into the equation at some point and he fits around this pick, but could be available at #120 (Braves' 4th round pick).

Other names/angles. Braves scour the JC/CCs in the Southeast and there are a ton of guys who fit the profile. There's RHP Chad Smith from Wallace-Hanceville (AL) CC. I'm kind of hoping the Braves draft him and Georgia HS OF Chad Smith so we can lead all of organized baseball in Chad Smiths. I hope both of these guys have better careers than Braves' 1986 3rd round pick Chad Smith. Other JC/CC guys from the Southeast who may figure into the calculus are Ginormous (6-8, 290) LHP Chase Johnson-Mullins from Shelton State CC (AL), RHP Scooter Hightower from Columbia JC (TN), and RHP Grayson Jones from Shelton State CC (AL). Shelton State is the college that brought us Caleb Beech in last year's draft.

A guy I'm really intrigued with is Willie Calhoun, an IF/OF who is probably going to play "bat" at the next level. He started his college career at the University of Arizona, but transferred to Yavapai JC (AZ) after his freshman year. He had a huge year at Yavapai with a .432/.520/.952 slash line. 31 HRs. 38 BBs/13 Ks in 276 PAs. He's ranked as a 4th to 6th rounder from what I've read.

Kennesaw State has two pitchers who will be drafted; RHP Jordan Hillyer and LHP Travis Bergen.

Catcher is a position of need in the system and while you don't draft for need, I can't help but believe the Braves aren't going to invest a few picks at the position. It will probably be a mix of college and high school guys, but I have to believe the Braves are going to try to find a couple of catching prospects who project as major league prospects. Some names I have come up with beyond Stephenson, Bart, and Herbert are high schoolers Garrett Wolforth (TX), Caleb Raleigh (NC), and Chris Cullen (GA). Braves could always draft Levi Borders (University of South Florida) again after picking him in the 11th round in 2011.

It will be interesting to watch where a few former Braves' picks from recent years end up. As I pointed out in an earlier post, OFs Gio Brusa (Pacific), Braden Bishop (Washington) and Ben Johnson (Texas) end up. RHP Jimmy Herget from the 2012 draft is also likely to go on the second day.

So, in brief, I'm expecting a lot of pitching and very few college picks early. Like everyone else, I'm always too optimistic about who will be available when we pick, so I've likely overshot reality. The other thing to keep in mind is that with the pool limits (and even though we've garnered more room through trades, there's only so much), we will likely have to take a couple of below slot guys relatively early so we can move money toward guys with higher salary demands. That's the downside of drafting high-ceiling high school kids because they have leverage.

Have at me.

[smootness]

I would be extremely disappointed with Bickford at 14 and very surprised if the Braves do that. I think they're looking at Stephenson and Whitley. Just my guess.

As others have said, high-upside arms are actually pretty deep in this draft, even if some have injury concerns. You can get value there later. The real value at the top is the high-upside bats.

[nsacpi]

I would be extremely disappointed with Bickford at 14 and very surprised if the Braves do that. I think they're looking at Stephenson and Whitley. Just my guess.

As others have said, high-upside arms are actually pretty deep in this draft, even if some have injury concerns. You can get value there later. The real value at the top is the high-upside bats.

The question is whether the high upside bats are there at #14. Both Whitley and Stephenson are likely gone by then. In which case we will turn to a HS pitcher.