Frank Wren

[zitothebrave]

Fredi. Uggla, and BJ come to mind.

Who would trade for BJ? Uggla you may find a taker but who would trade for BJ? Thats not even a remotely fair criticism.

[zitothebrave]

If you want to knock Wren, knock him for keeping people around who should've been fired/traded already.

Part of the problem with Fredi is he hasn't lost. Until Wren is on the hot seat, Fredi will stay here. Hell he may stay ehre longer than Wren who knows how his ties with JS are.

[The Chosen One]

Wren is JS's apprentice, and JS got a promotion to President of the Club when he gave Wren the reigns.

That tight knit circle of McGuirk, JS, Wren, Bobby, etc. Don't think it's going away anytime soon.

[zbhargrove]

Let's talk about what he's done since getting his current contract.

Certainly is a shame Wren's magical crystal ball wasn't working at the time. Sounds like we need a visit from Captain Hindsight.

[zbhargrove]

How was the Francoeur trade bad? Or the Escobar trade? They were trades that had to happen because of sucking and in Escobar's case a player who pissed off a hall of fame manager.

Yah, I'm actually trying to figure out how any of those trades were bad... McLouth and Uggla were only bad trades because they majorly regressed when they came to the Braves... something that Wren couldn't magically forsee... especially when both had had fairly long track record of success in the majors thus far. How was the Escobar or Francoeur trade bad? I'm at a loss.

[Dalyn]

Part of the problem with Fredi is he hasn't lost. Until Wren is on the hot seat, Fredi will stay here. Hell he may stay ehre longer than Wren who knows how his ties with JS are.

I disagree on the final part. If we don't win it all, Fredi is gone after this year (in my opinion).

[zitothebrave]

One can hope. But the Braves are fiercely loyal. And Fredi has a winning record with the Bravos. Of course Fredi inherited a team with Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, Tim Hudson, etc.

[Metaphysicist]

The 3 years prior to Uggla coming to Atlanta he had a 855 OPS and averaged 32 homers a year. That's not worth what he's currently getting paid?

You aren't paying for the three years prior, you are paying for the future. There was much consternation at the time re: giving a 2B in his 30s a 5 year deal, given the history of 2B collapses in that time frame. And what do you know...

I didn't think Uggla would be this bad, of course, but I also am not a handsomely-compensated GM, with access to analytical and scouting departments, whose job it is to know these things.

[Dalyn]

One can hope. But the Braves are fiercely loyal. And Fredi has a winning record with the Bravos. Of course Fredi inherited a team with Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, Tim Hudson, etc.

And his teams have ended the season badly two out of three years (one in epic fashion). I am sure that isn't being overlooked. Another losing September (that would already match Bobby's total) and no playoffs or just one bad series is going to be the final straw.

[zitothebrave]

You aren't paying for the three years prior, you are paying for the future. There was much consternation at the time re: giving a 2B in his 30s a 5 year deal, given the history of 2B collapses in that time frame. And what do you know...

I didn't think Uggla would be this bad, of course, but I also am not a handsomely-compensated GM, with access to analytical and scouting departments, whose job it is to know these things.

A bit more research would dig that almost all players fall off in their 30s. For some reason 2B are singled out but with a few exceptions (and I think those exceptions are usually body types and work ethic types or freaks) most players start falling off after 30 and fall pretty fast in thr it mid 30s. I compared a sample of 1b and 2b and both groups showed some serious decline, 1b being more harsh. Signing free agents who're old to long deals is bad business regardless of position.

[Metaphysicist]

Yeah that Ryan Church trade wasn't bad..tell me again which player is still playing baseball at the major league level.

I think it is pretty generous to call what Clutchy's been doing "major league level." Church last played in 2010, so let's take a look at the scoreboard since then:

WAR:

Church: 0.0
Frenchy: -0.6

We have a winner!

[Metaphysicist]

A bit more research would dig that almost all players fall off in their 30s. For some reason 2B are singled out but with a few exceptions (and I think those exceptions are usually body types and work ethic types or freaks) most players start falling off after 30 and fall pretty fast in thr it mid 30s. I compared a sample of 1b and 2b and both groups showed some serious decline, 1b being more harsh. Signing free agents who're old to long deals is bad business regardless of position.

As always, I trust your independent research implicitly, Zito.

[Metaphysicist]

The second Tex trade sucked, but no one thought Kotchman would be that bad.

That wasn't really the point, though. Even if Kotchman had maintained his LAA production (career OPS+ ~100), it would have been a bad trade because he didn't have much upside. We got nothing for the future in that trade.

[zitothebrave]

That wasn't really the point, though. Even if Kotchman had maintained his LAA production (career OPS+ ~100), it would have been a bad trade because he didn't have much upside. We got nothing for the future in that trade.

There's a difference though between a bad trade and a terrible trade. Kotchman the Braves were also hoping on him coming around to his top prospect skill.

[weso1]

You have to consider the circumstances with Uggla at the time Wren re-signed him. We needed a RH hitter badly. Also, Uggla's contract ends right before Heyward, Freeman, etc. begin to get very expensive. So it wasn't that much of a risk in regards to the long term. I think Wren certainly expected Uggla to decline, but more along the lines of .230 with 20 HR or so. I don't think he expected the bottom to drop out. Really the only free agent contract that could potentially truly hurt the long term future of the team is BJ Upton's.

[zitothebrave]

As always, I trust your independent research implicitly, Zito.

It's very good to know that.

Actually fangraphs did a bit on aging curves especially from 06-now this is various 7 year samples.



As you can see the overall drop from 30-35 is pretty danged steep.

[50PoundHead]

There are a couple rough rules of thumb for predicting how players will age.

1) Athleticism, which can mainly be judged by defense and base running. The more athletic guys age better.

2) Late arrivers to the majors also tend to age more quickly.

These two rules are not 100% accurate, but they have validity. Both were red flags with respect to Uggla.

Interestingly, these same indicators suggested BJ was not at risk for a rapid decline. We overpaid for BJ, but at the time the issue seemed more one of dollars than years. With Uggla it seemed apparent at the time of the extension that the main risk was the length of the extension.

I will say that I think Wren took risks with Uggla and BJ in areas where there was a gap in what the farm system was providing. At the time of the Uggla trade and extension we had a need for a right-handed power hitter and a left fieldier. Uggla filled both, though indirectly with Prado moving to left. Also the off-season Wren signed BJ there was a clear need for a center fielder. There was discussion about the pros and cons of Bourn, BJ, Victorino, Hamilton and Pagan. All those guys carried risk. So far Victorino has been the one that looks good. But that's with hindsight. I don't recall a big pro-Victorino contingent on the old board that off-season. My recollection is that the BJ signing was generally met with enthusiasm, though some of us thought the price was a bit high. But then the price is usually high when you dabble in the FA market.

It is worth noting that the poster who started this thread (unless I have him confused with someone else) advocated either Ellsbury or Sizemore as acquisitions this off-season as solutions to our problems in center. I look forward to seeing how that works out.

Excellent post. I didn't foresee B.J. Upton's precipitous fall although I thought we bid against ourselves in signing him and as a result gave him somewhere between $2 M and $3 M more than what the market was going to bear for him, but he was still going to be at least $12 M per on a 4- or 5-year deal. I think it's a mechanical deal with Upton, but I stand firm (and you can all dump on me with glee if my projections are wrong) that Uggla was poised for rapid decline. This rapid? Probably not, but he hasn't been a .800 OPS guy since he arrived.

And thanks for pointing out the "late arrival" aspect on Uggla. People forget that the Marlins got him from the D-backs as a Rule 5 draftee. There is no question Uggla was woefully undervalued coming up through the D-backs system, but I think he was, if not commensurately still surely, overvalued after his time in Florida.

zito, thanks for the aging curve.

weso, I agree we needed a RH power hitter, but to play with an analogy here, if you need a car, you don't pay Lincoln Continental prices for what may amount to a Dodge Dart (I have gotten a bit histrionic with that comparison. Uggla is better than a Dodge Dart.). It was a time for Wren to get creative and he didn't do that. There are a ton of guys out there who kill LHP and he could have found a platoon partner at a position on the field to fill the gap the Braves had. I don't think there is any question that Wren had a man crush on Uggla and that's what tipped the scales.

Wren has generally done well in the trade department. I didn't like the Escobar trade, but he obviously had p*ssed off the clubhouse and the manager to the point where he had to go. I just had to laugh when the team applauded the arrival of "team player" Sea Bass Gonzalez. Terrible, terrible, terrible player, but someone who was well liked.

I put another thread that I can't believe Boone Logan is now making $5.5 million per year. I think he's good, but that certainly distorts the LOOGY market for everyone else going forward.

[clvclv]

Where's the iggy button???

[BRule]

The trade for McLouth and Uggla were good ones. They just didn't perform. Texeira trade was terrible, but was under JS, not Wren.

What? How does the GM not get blame for trading players that stink? Or signing ones, for that matter. I don't care what the players track record was, if they suck for you...then you failed. It's not like Uggly, McLouth, BJ, etc were all sure-fire moves with no faults.

[Knucksie]

weso, I agree we needed a RH power hitter, but to play with an analogy here, if you need a car, you don't pay Lincoln Continental prices for what may amount to a Dodge Dart (I have gotten a bit histrionic with that comparison. Uggla is better than a Dodge Dart.). It was a time for Wren to get creative and he didn't do that. There are a ton of guys out there who kill LHP and he could have found a platoon partner at a position on the field to fill the gap the Braves had. I don't think there is any question that Wren had a man crush on Uggla and that's what tipped the scales.

That's not exactly how events played out. Wren was trying to be creative. The conventional wisdom, at the time, was that the Braves were pursuing a RH power-hitting OF. None were available to that specification. So, he tried to address the issue at 2B. Maybe he did have some particular fascination with Uggla, but that trade was not set in stone. Fredi had just been hired when they were consummating the deal. Fredi was asked what he thought of the trade, and his response was "who else are you giving up?"