David Price expects to be dealt

[BRule]

Hold on....are people suggesting they wouldn't trade Gattis for Price?

[NYCBrave]

If Wren wants to take a flier on getting an Ace, all he needs to do is sign JJ and have everyone cross their fingers he can stay healthy.

The problem with Johnson is, he hasn't put up ace like numbers since 2011, and that was a year he started only 9 games. Injuries have plagued him his whole career so they could have taken their tole.

[bravesnumberone]

I'd do it 30 minutes ago if that's all it took. I'd laugh myself silly though if that's all the Rays wanted.

[NYCBrave]

If the options for getting an ace are hoping JJ or Roy Halladay find it within themselves for a year, then let's just hope Minor and Julio trend closer to that level.

If I'm giving up what it will probably cost for Price, I want some time to talk extension.

If you're willing to sign him to an extension, which of Freeman/Heyward/Justin are you willing to part with?

[bravesnumberone]

If you're willing to sign him to an extension, which of Freeman/Heyward/Justin are you willing to part with?

In order?

Justin
Heyward
Freeman

[Heyward]

Hold on....are people suggesting they wouldn't trade Gattis for Price?

I'm saying the Rays won't take Gattis.

It will cost one of Freeman, Heyward or Simmons plus 2-3 other high end prospects.

This is if we get a window to talk extension.

[BRule]

Since 2010 Price has the 8th highest WAR of all pitchers in baseball....TB can have whoever they want. Price is exactly what we need

[Teheran_49]

I'm sure the Rays would ask for a ridiculous price from us. I love Price just not for the price.

[gilesfan]

If you offered Wood/Sims/CB for David Price, the TB GM may think it's April Fools

[bravesnumberone]

You can't just continue to operate hoping all the young players you have will develop into greatness. Sometimes you have to acquire greatness.

[Gary82]

If you offered Wood/Sims/CB for David Price, the TB GM may think it's April Fools

agreed.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I dont know if anything is available that would improve attendence at Tropicana Field but Gattis could if anything. Unfortunately for Tampa, he does the same thing for Atlanta.

Can you imagine if Gattis comes out strong and starts putting up numbers, he just might start putting butts in the bleachers. His marketing value is probably the highest of any Brave I can remember.

Gives new meaning to "Chicks love the long ball".

[nsacpi]

Price has been a 4.5 per year WAR player the last three years. He's been pretty consistent, with WAR numbers of 4.3, 4.8, 4.4.

I'd expect him to continue that level of productivity for the next two years.

During the next two years, his average salary is going to be that of a 3 WAR player (about $15M/yr).

So his "surplus value" is going to be 1.5 WAR per year or 3 WAR over the next two year.

For me that's the best way of valuing a player. ymmv

For instructive purposes, I will consider what Alex Wood's "surplus value" might be.

Alex was a 1.6 WAR player this past season. He makes peanuts as a pre-arb player and will continue to make peanuts the next two years. This means his "surplus value" this year is very close to his WAR. Let's say his surplus value was 1.3 WAR.

Let's assume that Alex simply maintains the same productivity the next two years. His surplus value over the next two years will be a total of 2.6 WAR. Assuming good health, Alex will probably continue to generate some surplus value into his arbitration years.

I will stop here and let everyone draw their conclusions. Or raise objections to my approach.

PS: Dayton Moore really did get taken to the cleaners in the Shields-Myers trade. I hope the little exercise above helps to clarify why.

[Tapate50]

DET might move Sherzer this offseason.

[Gary82]

I dont know if anything is available that would improve attendence at Tropicana Field but Gattis could if anything. Unfortunately for Tampa, he does the same thing for Atlanta.

Can you imagine if Gattis comes out strong and starts putting up numbers, he just might start putting butts in the bleachers. His marketing value is probably the highest of any Brave I can remember.

Gives new meaning to "Chicks love the long ball".

Gattis has a great story, but I don't agree that he's a guy that people will continue to pay to see. People want to see stars. Gattis isn't a star, or at least I don't think he's one.

[ramadon101]

NSACPI nailed it. Friedman is going to extract a gold mine for Price from some team overpaying for Price's surplus value when all is said and done... as he should (if he can get it and I suspect he will). Gattis is not going to be a centerpiece for any deal involving Price (and not because I don't like him - I do quite a bit, actually - but because Friedman would want Heyward as a starting point).

I don't want any part of Price unless we have a real opportunity to extend him at a reasonable (i.e., slightly below market) price - and I doubt that happens, Braves fan or not. Minor is essentially our version of Price, except he's a hell of a lot cheaper. I'd rather use our chits elsewhere.

[Garmel]

NSACPI nailed it. Friedman is going to extract a gold mine for Price from some team overpaying for Price's surplus value when all is said and done... as he should (if he can get it and I suspect he will). Gattis is not going to be a centerpiece for any deal involving Price (and not because I don't like him - I do quite a bit, actually - but because Friedman would want Heyward as a starting point).

I don't want any part of Price unless we have a real opportunity to extend him at a reasonable (i.e., slightly below market) price - and I doubt that happens, Braves fan or not. Minor is essentially our version of Price, except he's a hell of a lot cheaper. I'd rather use our chits elsewhere.

Agreed. More than likely we'll get fleeced if we try to get Price. Chris Sale would be my option if I was in charge. He's making 6 million a year and he isn't a free agent until 2017.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Gattis has a great story, but I don't agree that he's a guy that people will continue to pay to see. People want to see stars. Gattis isn't a star, or at least I don't think he's one.

Your really cant relate what he did in 105 games, his life story, etc and forecast stardom if he just improves the slightest bit?????

[nsacpi]

Agreed. More than likely we'll get fleeced if we try to get Price. Chris Sale would be my option if I was in charge. He's making 6 million a year and he isn't a free agent until 2017.

Yes. Sale has a much better contract situation and more expected surplus value over the period of contractual control than Price.

But my impression is that the new GM for the White Sox is a pretty smart cookie. We're better off dealing with the likes of Towers and Dayton Moore. The Angels are another fun team to make trades with.

[emk418]

Your really cant relate what he did in 105 games, his life story, etc and forecast stardom if he just improves the slightest bit?????

I don't see any reason why Gattis can't hit 260 with 25-30 HR if he plays everyday.