But we had much more go right, such as playing in a terrible division that is bound to be much more competitive in 2014. We still have a good team and no one has said otherwise. But expecting 96 wins again is being super optimistic considering what we lost and what we've added (practically nothing).Originally Posted by Heyward
Do the Nats get to play our improved division too, or no?
Also, i never said we'd win 96 again.
The stuff that went right that likely wont this year is the H2H over Wash, CJ/FF, and some bench/bullpen players overperforming.
Wrong, was BJ/Uggla, Heyward missing 2 months, Maholm when he was stinking it up, JUp after April was very inconsistent.
Some stuff went right but hardly the entire team had career years by any means.
Relative to 2013, we likely won't be as good at catcher, first, third, bullpen, bench. We're likely to get better production at second, short, left, center and right. Starting pitching should be better. The returning threesome of Medlen, Minor and Teheran should be better as a group. Wood is an upgrade over Medlen. Beachy replacing Hudson is close to a wash. Looking at the whole picture, I see slight improvement to say 97 wins.
Whatever drop off in production from certain guys should be cancelled out by other guys improving.
The Braves won 96 games with Tim Hudson missing half the season. With Brian McCann missing April and doing absolutely nothing in the 2nd half of the season. With B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla having 2 of the worst seasons in MLB history. With Jason Heyward missing roughly 2 months of the season. With Justin Upton doing very little offensively after April. With Evan Gattis playing a lot in LF and being a major defensive liability out there. With Paul Maholm getting 26 or so starts and being pretty bad for the majority of those starts. With EOF pitching in only a few games. With Jonny Venters not throwing a single pitch in the regular season. With Brandon Beachy making only 5 starts. The Braves despite all of those issues still won 96 games. Logic tells us that the Braves should have fewer injuries in 2014 and therefore should get better overall production across the board just based on having less injuries. Logic tells us that there's no way B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla can be any worse in 2014 than they were in 2013. Logic tells us that Chris Johnson will suffer a major regression. But even if he does and hits "only" like he did in 2012 he would still be an asset offensively. Logic tells us that David Carpenter more than likely will also suffer a major regression. The year he had came out of nowhere like Johnson and unlike Johnson, Carpenter's previous track record before 2013 is spotty at best. I do really worry about him. Who knows if Freddie Freeman will regress or not? We don't know what his peak is as a hitter. Is it 2013? Is that his peak? Or could he be even better, as in hit for more power? We don't know. Although it was a very good sign when he went on a homerun bring in September and hit 6 long balls. It's a shame that didn't carry into the Dodgers series. Will Julio Teheran stay the same, regress or get better? We don't know because 2013 was his first full season in the majors. Will Mike Minor regress? I don't think so because if you look at his last 50 or so starts they're great and that's a big enough sample size to start gaining a feel for what he is capable of doing on a yearly basis. I think what Kris Medlen did was what his normal production is capable of being on a yearly basis. What will the Braves get from Evan Gattis? We're not sure. But even if he does what he did in 2013 that should be enough that the drop off from McCann wouldn't be enough to create a major hole in lost production. Even if that is the case, the improvement that we should get from B.J. Upton should make up for that difference between McCann and Gattis and make up for Johnson's expected regression.
The Braves are not 10 wins worse than they were last year and the Nationals aren't 10 wins better than they were last year. The Mets, Phillies and Marlins are all going to put horrible teams on the field so they're not even in the discussion. The Braves should win the NL East in 2014.
Not everybody...
Between us and the Nationals, we clearly have the best pitcher on the payroll. His name is Roger Alan McDowell.
Regardless of what you may have said last year, this doom and gloom **** happens every year. Excuse me if I dont **** myself in fear of the nats but we heard all last offseason how great the nats were. All season long negative nancies were predicting the nats were about to go on a roll and steamroll the braves.
Your just another in a long line of negative nancies predicting doom and gloom. You know who thinks the braves are good? Nats fans. Try visiting their forum and see how confident they are.
AUTiger7222 (02-07-2014), Heyward (02-07-2014)
I have gotten into quite a few Twitter wars with Matt Chernoff and one of them last year was about the Nats. I was already crowning the Braves in June and I was getting all kinds of heat from Chernoff and his little gang of followers about how the Nats were going to go on a run and that it wasn't over and blah, blah, blah. It was hilarious the Nats were still below .500 until late August or early September before they had a good finish just to get to 86 wins.
I don't fear the Nats either. What I fear is a Braves drop off. There is not a pitcher in our rotation that anybody fears. If this team wins it'll be because of offense but with Uggla, Gattis and BJ as 1/3 of said lineup, that's a ton of rally killing ks.
Oh and btw, the Nats fans don't like me, they banned me last year for spreading a little truth over there, which is just as well the fan base is as arrogant as the organization.
Last edited by VirginiaBrave; 02-07-2014 at 11:58 PM.
So because the Braves don't have a Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright type pitcher we don't have good enough pitching to win? GTFO with that weak sauce!
Sure. I never said we are going to be a bad team. But expecting 96 wins again is unrealistic. We lost two very productive players and did not replace them. The Nats underperformed most of last yr and have improved their team. We aren't going to dominate them like we did last yr. Philly is improved and should be competitive. Every single sign points to us winning less games in 2014. Being realistic and being pessimistic are two different things. We should still be a good team, but there's no way we run away with the division like last yr.
I said earlier in this thread we're about a 91 win team give or take a couple wins depending on the health/success of Heyward and J-Up.
Last edited by Carp; 02-08-2014 at 12:07 AM.
The Red Sox just won the WS with a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Bucholtz, and Peavy.
Outside of MAYBE Lester, no of those you fear.
Next.
Uggla isnt going to be in the lineup the whole year, he'll get maybe a month if not on the bench.
BJ wont be that bad again, just wont happen.
No one knows what Gattis will be.
We will have some regression from players just like every team in baseball but enough to push us to 3rd or even 4th, get the hell out.
I dont disagree with any of that, honestly.
Mac is who we'll miss the most.
We got more than enough to replace Huddy.
Win total depends on a lot of things, hard to say at this point.
BJ wont be that bad again, just wont happen
You should really put an "I hope" in that sentence somewhere. I bet Uggla ends up with a better season.
Even if BJ is 10% better than last year, that's a huge improvement.
He and Uggla had 2 of the worst historical seasons for everyday players.
Forever Fredi
AUTiger7222 (02-08-2014), Heyward (02-08-2014)
We assume we do. But we have no idea what to expect from Beachy and Wood. Huddy and Maholm at least ate some innings and gave us about league average production. Will we get at least 150 innings from Beachy and Wood? I hope so, but I'm not holding my breath. Wood is still basically a rookie and isn't a lock for the rotation. There is a decent chance Floyd or Garcia could make a significant amount of starts for us which isn't exactly reassuring.
VirginiaBrave (02-08-2014)
It has nothing to do with hope, Nats fan.
He had a historically awful season, im not saying he'll hit .330, with 40 HR's, and 129 RBI's, but he wont be that bad again, it's just impossible. Logic says otherwise.
Uggla i have no hope for, BJ is still young enough for improvement.
Why we so we assume BJ and Uggla are going to magically improve? Even if they "can't get any worse", there is still a good chance that they simply don't get any better. Players just simply lose it sometimes. Especially when they play the positions that Uggla and BJ do. We all saw what happened with Andruw and Murph. Most 2b starting drastically declining around Uggla's age too.
Huddy missed the final 2 months.
Maholm was a turdbomb after his good start and was next to useless even if he did "eat" innings.
Garcia, yes, Floyd is a solid starter if he's healthy.
Uggla, yes could/probably be done.
BJ is just 29, he didnt just lose it at that age, he had a solid year the year before with the Rays.
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