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Thread: Heyward to Cubs for less than $200M

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Not at all similar? I mean, look at those numbers...I still see that as a reasonable comparison. It may not be the absolute best comparison, and 'a bit less' may not have properly represented the difference in K rates, but the K rate is really the only divider...it explains a lot of the BA difference, which explains the SLG difference.

    And Soler's K rate started to climb as he hit the higher levels and then stood at 30% last year, which is where Alvarez's was initially in the majors as well.

    I just don't see how that's a laughable comparison.
    it is "hopeless". .not laughable..

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    Lot of money to pay for a right fielder that can't make the all-star team

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    it is "hopeless". .not laughable..
    I don't know if this is a joke or not, but I will laugh so as not to arouse suspicion that I am a loser.


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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    I don't know if this is a joke or not, but I will laugh so as not to arouse suspicion that I am a loser.

    joke.. I was called hopeless for comparing the two..

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    It's OVER 5,000! zbhargrove's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Not at all similar? I mean, look at those numbers...I still see that as a reasonable comparison. It may not be the absolute best comparison, and 'a bit less' may not have properly represented the difference in K rates, but the K rate is really the only divider...it explains a lot of the BA difference, which explains the SLG difference.

    And Soler's K rate started to climb as he hit the higher levels and then stood at 30% last year, which is where Alvarez's was initially in the majors as well.

    I just don't see how that's a laughable comparison.
    You don't see how that's a laughable comparison?? It's light years of difference.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    You don't see how that's a laughable comparison?? It's light years of difference.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    You don't see how that's a laughable comparison?? It's light years of difference.
    It's not light years. It's a healthy difference, and given the time samples there's room for concern.

    He struck out around 20% in the upper minors.

    Here's my initial concerns with him and his Ks. It's only one year so it's not a deal breaker but he swing outside the zone more than major league average and swung in the zone less than major league average which may mean poor recognition or feel for the zone. He also has a higher than league average swingst.

    He looks better on pitch f/x's stats as far as selection, but he has horrible contact rates.

    I like him, he's not my favorite but I would bring him on board. Alvarez is a pretty fair comp, Alvarez was extremely well rated as a prospect.
    Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Solid reply that really backs up your stance. It's a pretty large difference. Not only a large difference in K%... A large difference in Average and Slugging.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Solid reply that really backs up your stance. It's a pretty large difference. Not only a large difference in K%... A large difference in Average and Slugging.
    the stance has been 'backed up' by different people.. The fact is that the premise of the post is still viable..
    Soler's one tool (hitting) will need to out shine his weaknesses (wild arm, lack of speed, poor base running, bad defense, high K%, maybe laziness).. this is very similar to one highly rated prospect coming up with the Pirates a few years back..

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    the stance has been 'backed up' by different people.. The fact is that the premise of the post is still viable..
    Soler's one tool (hitting) will need to out shine his weaknesses (wild arm, lack of speed, poor base running, bad defense, high K%, maybe laziness).. this is very similar to one highly rated prospect coming up with the Pirates a few years back..
    Are you talking Soler or Justin Upton?

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    Quote Originally Posted by jdunn View Post
    Lot of money to pay for a right fielder that can't make the all-star team
    World's Largest Leadoff Hitter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ampere View Post
    Yes, if he opt outs the $20 million is no longer deferred and is paid immediately.
    Now that changes things a bit. Not sure how much of the signing bonus us paid each year, but I'm assuming that at least 10 million will be left after the 2018 season. They'll have paid him around 35 million or more in 2018. If he opts out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    the stance has been 'backed up' by different people.. The fact is that the premise of the post is still viable..
    Soler's one tool (hitting) will need to out shine his weaknesses (wild arm, lack of speed, poor base running, bad defense, high K%, maybe laziness).. this is very similar to one highly rated prospect coming up with the Pirates a few years back..
    My point is Alvarez always had massive power potential. But that was it with him. He struck out a ton in the minors and scouts always had concerns about his bat moving forward. He's a slow, unathletic and was always destined to be hidden at 1B. Soler has the plus power potential but has always shown the ability to hit for average as well. Soler is VERY athletic with a strong arm so there's at least hope of him growing defensively to be an average defensive OF.

    Average and OBP are clearly not how you should judge a player but in Soler's first full season as a 22 year old hit for a higher AVG and OBP then Alvarez has at any point in his career.

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    It's OVER 5,000! zbhargrove's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    the stance has been 'backed up' by different people.. The fact is that the premise of the post is still viable..
    Soler's one tool (hitting) will need to out shine his weaknesses (wild arm, lack of speed, poor base running, bad defense, high K%, maybe laziness).. this is very similar to one highly rated prospect coming up with the Pirates a few years back..
    And has also been refuted by a number of people... Cool story

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    We're picking players apart now using "wild arm" and laziness? That seems more of a personal dislike than one of analysis.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    We're picking players apart now using "wild arm" and laziness? That seems more of a personal dislike than one of analysis.
    wild arm has been written about his throwing ability..
    Laziness is with a ? because it has been thrown around this board...

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Solid reply that really backs up your stance. It's a pretty large difference. Not only a large difference in K%... A large difference in Average and Slugging.
    Chill, man, I was just joking. Didn't know whether you were serious or not.

    Since it's clear you were, no, it's not 'light years' of difference. I feel like I'm being trolled now. Yes, the K-rate is the separator...and it explains the difference in average, which explains the difference in slugging. So again, the K-rate is the only thing really different.

    And while that is certainly important, it doesn't negate either that a) they're still relatively similar players (they definitely fall on the same spectrum, as opposed to, say, Soler and Jace Peterson) and b) Soler's K-rate was 30% last year, the same K-rate Alvarez had early in his major league career, which he has since improved upon.

    Soler put up a BA of .262 and an OBP of .324 last year. Alvarez's first year, he put up a BA of .256 and an OBP of .326. The only difference is that Alvarez actually showed power that year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    We're picking players apart now using "wild arm" and laziness? That seems more of a personal dislike than one of analysis.
    The weird thing is, the laziness has actually been brought up by those who like him more and want us to get him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Chill, man, I was just joking. Didn't know whether you were serious or not.

    Since it's clear you were, no, it's not 'light years' of difference. I feel like I'm being trolled now. Yes, the K-rate is the separator...and it explains the difference in average, which explains the difference in slugging. So again, the K-rate is the only thing really different.

    And while that is certainly important, it doesn't negate either that a) they're still relatively similar players (they definitely fall on the same spectrum, as opposed to, say, Soler and Jace Peterson) and b) Soler's K-rate was 30% last year, the same K-rate Alvarez had early in his major league career, which he has since improved upon.

    Soler put up a BA of .262 and an OBP of .324 last year. Alvarez's first year, he put up a BA of .256 and an OBP of .326. The only difference is that Alvarez actually showed power that year.
    Soler was also hurt most of the year with nagging injuries. That's more of a concern IMO... Will those nagging injuries be the norm or was it just a tough year?

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Soler was also hurt most of the year with nagging injuries. That's more of a concern IMO... Will those nagging injuries be the norm or was it just a tough year?
    This may be true. Regardless, the more I read and hear about Soler, the less excited I get about potentially adding him.

    I'm not opposed to it in the right deal, but I definitely would want something else legitimate back to reduce some of the risk. And we would also have to be prepared to put him permanently in LF, which would send Olivera to 3B permanently and remove some of the variety in our options for building going forward.

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