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Thread: MINORS FINAL THURSDAY 5/4 ... Allard reigns supreme

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    Allard showing he's the real deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Allard showing he's the real deal.
    I don't think after the first few starts anyone was thinking otherwise. I'd think top 20 in midseason lists pretty easily?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    I don't think after the first few starts anyone was thinking otherwise. I'd think top 20 in midseason lists pretty easily?
    No question. Can't imagine there are more than a handful of prospects who have dominated at his level and his age. I think even the most level headed fans could argue that Allard is a potential Ace pitcher.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    I don't think after the first few starts anyone was thinking otherwise. I'd think top 20 in midseason lists pretty easily?
    We'll see, certainly possible. It will be interesting to see what they do with him vs. Soroka.

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    Posi Brave here.. but again. B'ham Barons are absolute trash outside of pitching. There offense is garbage.. but again, he did what he was supposed to do. I expect the next two guys will do just as well today and tomorrow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    I don't think after the first few starts anyone was thinking otherwise. I'd think top 20 in midseason lists pretty easily?
    Yeah. I think his chances for the Top 20 are pretty good. The front office did a good job evaluating where he should be placed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrimsonCowboy View Post
    Braves fans reading Allard's line from tonight

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    Nice representation of braves on BAs hotsheet. STACKED.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Posi Brave here.. but again. B'ham Barons are absolute trash outside of pitching. There offense is garbage.. but again, he did what he was supposed to do. I expect the next two guys will do just as well today and tomorrow.
    Yep, and you still have to make the pitches either way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I suppose. I still believe that most wouldefinitely say Allard. For me this is how I see it:

    Allard
    Newcomb
    Anderson
    Gohara
    Fried
    Soroka
    Weigel
    Sims

    Also, I would sleep on Ricard sanchez. Some encouraging reports on him and he's still super young.

    Also of not we are very left handed heavy. Wonder if that's intentional.
    I would put Allard a cut above everyone else. They break down into the following tiers:

    Allard (legit 1-2 guy)

    Soroka (legit 3-4 guys)
    Anderson
    Gohara

    Newcomb (likely BP guys)
    Fried
    Wentz
    Touki
    Blair
    Wisler
    Muller
    Sims
    Sanchez

    Weigel (wildcard)

    Braves will be lucky to have 2 of the Allard/Soroka/Anderson/Gohara group turn into legit MLB SPs. I'm going to guess Allard ends up producing like Quintana, and Soroka puts together a Derek Lowe type career without that one huge outlier season.

    They will also be lucky to have 3-4 of the next group catch on as 3+ career WAR BP arms. Whichever ones figure out their control and/or stay healthy will have a 5+ year MLB career.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 05-05-2017 at 11:04 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I would put Allard a cut above everyone else. They break down into the following tiers:

    Allard (legit 1-2 guy)

    Soroka (legit 3-4 guys)
    Anderson
    Gohara

    Newcomb (likely BP guys)
    Fried
    Wentz
    Touki
    Blair
    Wisler
    Muller
    Sims

    Weigel (wildcard)
    We have a big 4 and everyone else. I do think from the entire group listed the yield will be 5 guys who have significant careers as major league starters. And by that I mean make over 50 major league starts. I would be happy with that kind of outcome.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-05-2017 at 11:05 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Nice representation of braves on BAs hotsheet. STACKED.
    Encouraging to see Herbert on helium watch for BA... I was really hoping for big things regarding Herbert

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    We have a big 4 and everyone else. I do think from the entire group listed the yield will be 5 guys who have significant careers as major league starters. And by that I mean make over 50 major league starts. I would be happy with that kind of outcome.
    That would be nearly unprecedented in the history of MLB prospect "groups".

    The first wave of Top 100 pitchers from the rebuild consisted of Folty (#59), Wisler (#35), Jenkins (#94), Blair (#40), and Newcomb (#24). Going by historical averages, the Braves would have been lucky if 1-2 ended up with 3+ career WAR, and 1-2 more ended up posting 0+ WAR. Folty looks like he will be the lone 3+ career guy. Wisler busted, Blair is busting, Newcomb is on the road to bustville, and Jenkins is a AAAA arm.

    Before the rebuild, the Braves had 3 elite pitchers in Teheran (#5), Delgado (#35) and Viz (#40). Odds said they would be lucky to have 1 guy produce 3+ career WAR, while the others would produce almost nothing. Teheran turned into the stud (13.4 career WAR), while Viz (0.6 career WAR), and Delgado (1.7 career WAR) have carved out mediocre careers as BP arms.

    There is nothing special about this current group of pitching prospects, just like there was nothing special about the Teheran or Folty groups that came before them.

    However, it should be pointed out that Teheran was on a completely different tier of prospect status than anyone else mentioned here (though Allard may push to that level). Top 10 pitching prospects have a MUCH better rate of success than the guys ranked #25+.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 05-05-2017 at 11:27 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I would put Allard a cut above everyone else. They break down into the following tiers:

    Allard (legit 1-2 guy)

    Soroka (legit 3-4 guys)
    Anderson
    Gohara

    Newcomb (likely BP guys)
    Fried
    Wentz
    Touki
    Blair
    Wisler
    Muller
    Sims
    Sanchez

    Weigel (wildcard)

    Braves will be lucky to have 2 of the Allard/Soroka/Anderson/Gohara group turn into legit MLB SPs. I'm going to guess Allard ends up producing like Quintana, and Soroka puts together a Derek Lowe type career without that one huge outlier season.

    They will also be lucky to have 3-4 of the next group catch on as 3+ career WAR BP arms. Whichever ones figure out their control and/or stay healthy will have a 5+ year MLB career.
    What do you not like about Ian anderson?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I would put Allard a cut above everyone else. They break down into the following tiers:

    Allard (legit 1-2 guy)

    Soroka (legit 3-4 guys)
    Anderson
    Gohara

    Newcomb (likely BP guys)
    Fried
    Wentz
    Touki
    Blair
    Wisler
    Muller
    Sims
    Sanchez

    Weigel (wildcard)

    Braves will be lucky to have 2 of the Allard/Soroka/Anderson/Gohara group turn into legit MLB SPs. I'm going to guess Allard ends up producing like Quintana, and Soroka puts together a Derek Lowe type career without that one huge outlier season.

    They will also be lucky to have 3-4 of the next group catch on as 3+ career WAR BP arms. Whichever ones figure out their control and/or stay healthy will have a 5+ year MLB career.
    I think you're conservative on the extreme end, but we'll see.

    April was a very good for our pitching prospects in general. As the Hotsheet notes, the month was not kind to a lot of top pitching prospects throughout baseball, yet just about all of ours at least maintained their status, with several improving theirs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    What do you not like about Ian anderson?
    Calling someone a legit 3-4 MLB SP does not qualify as "not liking him".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I would put Allard a cut above everyone else. They break down into the following tiers:

    Allard (legit 1-2 guy)

    Soroka (legit 3-4 guys)
    Anderson
    Gohara

    Newcomb (likely BP guys)
    Fried
    Wentz
    Touki
    Blair
    Wisler
    Muller
    Sims
    Sanchez

    Weigel (wildcard)

    Braves will be lucky to have 2 of the Allard/Soroka/Anderson/Gohara group turn into legit MLB SPs. I'm going to guess Allard ends up producing like Quintana, and Soroka puts together a Derek Lowe type career without that one huge outlier season.

    They will also be lucky to have 3-4 of the next group catch on as 3+ career WAR BP arms. Whichever ones figure out their control and/or stay healthy will have a 5+ year MLB career.
    This seems awfully pessimistic if you are talking stuff. If you are talking likely outcome then ok. It makes more sense to bet to lose b/c the odds are forever in your favor.

    Soroka I get not putting in 1-2 b/c the stuff isn't electric.
    Anderson looks like he has what you need to be a 1-2. Third pitch. Fill out. Stay healthy. There are a lot of super highly ranked guys you could say that about.
    Gohara has to have a ceiling higher than 3. He's a lefty with stuff. Power stuff.

    Newcombe is still a 3-4 guy to me. Even if he's nasty with a bad inning or good start/bad start he's better than a lot of guys. I think he and Folty settle into that really good 3 space with 5 awful starts a year.

    Fried is a stud. I know people are down based on a couple bad starts. I get the arm history. If he's healthy he's a stud. Needs a full year at AA and AAA first.

    Wentz and Muller I've never liked and would like to see hit. I don't like low velocity out of those guys.

    Touki I think will either be a 1-2 or nothing. My bet is on nothing. I don't see him being a bp guy. The 1-2 potential is easily there for me.

    Sims I see as a 5th starter. A good 5th starter. Maybe in that 3-4 if people think he can get more movement on his FB. I'd say 4-5 but that's not a category you listed.

    Sanchez I see as nothing. It's prospect fatigue and he's still super young. But he's just a guy IMO.

    Weigel I see as a 4-5 or a bp ace. is The third pitch that good to be a higher guy?

    Blair and Wisler I see as maybe long relievers.

    With all of these starters I'd like to see them go to a multi inning RP model. I think some of these guys could turn over a roster once pretty well. Then have Cabrera and Minter as your R/L power guys.

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    I don't really care how 40th prospects have done historically. Not every 40th prospect is the same. I get that history helps predict the future but that doesn't really give us the full picture as to the caliber of prospects that these kids are.

    The calculus of this projection changes significantly if Anderson/Gohara/Soroka continue to produce. So what changes then? The pitcher hasn't changed. Just the scouting communities ranking of them.
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    I still don't get the reluctance to project Newcomb as a productive MLB starter. There are probably only 10 pitchers in all of the minor leagues that have his build/stuff profile. The control is an issue but hitters in the minor leagues have shown two things: (1) They can't barrel up the ball against him as evidenced by his crazy low BAA (2) Newcomb is an elite strikeout pitcher

    The only thing stopping Newcomb is Newcomb. It sure isn't the opposing batter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    I think you're conservative on the extreme end, but we'll see.

    April was a very good for our pitching prospects in general. As the Hotsheet notes, the month was not kind to a lot of top pitching prospects throughout baseball, yet just about all of ours at least maintained their status, with several improving theirs.
    Here are how Top 100 pitching prospctes have fared since 1990:

    Rank < 3 WAR 0 or less WAR
    #1-10 4.55% 0%
    #11-25 44.19% 27.91%
    #26-50 41.18% 23.53%
    #51-75 69.23% 44.23%
    #76-100 65.49% 43.36%

    According to my notes, the Braves have 6-7 guys that all fall into the 40%-70% bust range. That means odds are 2-4 of these guys will produce 3+ WAR in their career.

    I just so happen to think the 2 that will be legit SPs are Allard and Soroka. A few of the others will carve out mediocre BP careers, with 1-2 of them compiling 3+ WAR over a 5+ year career.

    I fail to see how any rational person can conclude these Braves pitching prospects will be unique compared to all pitching prospects since 1990. We as Braves fans have literally seen these pitcher attrition numbers play out right before our eyes with several sets of pitching prospects, yet some still insist on concluding "this group is different".

    Why? What makes this group so special other than they are the current group everyone wants to see succeed?

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