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Thread: Short cut to competitive for money and risk

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    This is true. In 2007, did anyone really feel like there would be more than 25 players making over 20 million per year? In 10 years, Stanton's contract may not be a good deal, but it may not seem like the albatross it seems now. Especially when there are already talks of Harper getting over 40 million per year.
    I agree on the contract inflation.

    I don't see the Marlins giving up Stanton. I think we would have to give up Albies in a deal like that. They would have to take the last year of Neck.

    I could see a fire sale with the Marlins but we will see.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    I agree on the contract inflation.

    I don't see the Marlins giving up Stanton. I think we would have to give up Albies in a deal like that. They would have to take the last year of Neck.

    I could see a fire sale with the Marlins but we will see.
    A lot will have to do with who the new owners are and what they want to do. I could see it from both angles. Needing to cut payroll and start over or keep your star and build from there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think that has to be the plan. Instead of trying to win with a dramatic trade or two, you take a consistent approach that allows you to build a winner in a sustainable manner. And one of the most important aspects of that approach is to sign players to extensions before they get close to free agency.
    Yes. I think the Kemp trade (outside of cleaning up a bad trade), was a stop gap move. I don't see them doing that again, unless they could fill a real need (like getting Longoria for next to nothing). Really 3rd base and catcher are the only two positions we don't have and answer for in the next few years. We do should have for both by 2020, so even Longoria makes little sense (because he is signed through like 2013 making big money in declining years). What made the Kemp deal great, is even though it was big money, it really wasn't that many years and ends before he will be getting really old.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    A lot will have to do with who the new owners are and what they want to do. I could see it from both angles. Needing to cut payroll and start over or keep your star and build from there.
    Paying Stanton 30+ million in his late 30's is madness. He can't even stay healthy now. Why don't you just go put that cash in a barrel and burn it. That's basically what you will be doing the last FOUR years (at least) of that contract.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    A lot will have to do with who the new owners are and what they want to do. I could see it from both angles. Needing to cut payroll and start over or keep your star and build from there.
    I can see him being dealt. I just don't see him being given away. His contract is huge and he gets hurt. But he's still uber talented and a name.

    They've started over before and they could do it again. But I don't see them giving him away. They might give away Prado. Maybe even Gordon. But Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna etc are going to cost at least one top 3 prospect IMO. I'm not sure I would want to go there.

    But maybe you can get Prado for nothing. Maybe they'd deal Realmuto for something not amazing...Ruiz (if you think Demerrite is your guy next year and/or you think Prado or another FA is).

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    Paying Stanton 30+ million in his late 30's is madness. He can't even stay healthy now. Why don't you just go put that cash in a barrel and burn it. That's basically what you will be doing the last FOUR years (at least) of that contract.
    I'd rather play Stanton 30+ million into his late 30s than Kemp. Maybe you could stash him in LF to keep him healthy. Maybe you rest him more b/c you have an ok guy like Peterson to sub in. In 2022 we might have a DH.

    If you could get what was listed in the first post (I don't think that is anywhere near good enough) then I do it in a heart beat. You might be able to sell Stanton to the Sox or Yanks as a 1B if things don't work out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    Yes. I think the Kemp trade (outside of cleaning up a bad trade), was a stop gap move. I don't see them doing that again, unless they could fill a real need (like getting Longoria for next to nothing). Really 3rd base and catcher are the only two positions we don't have and answer for in the next few years. We do should have for both by 2020, so even Longoria makes little sense (because he is signed through like 2013 making big money in declining years). What made the Kemp deal great, is even though it was big money, it really wasn't that many years and ends before he will be getting really old.
    Yeah. The risk in those kinds of deals is the years remaining in the contract. Kemp was ok in that regard. Longoria I could live with even though it is a bit longer than I would like to see. The Stanton deal is extremely risky because of its length.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    I'd rather play Stanton 30+ million into his late 30s than Kemp. Maybe you could stash him in LF to keep him healthy. Maybe you rest him more b/c you have an ok guy like Peterson to sub in. In 2022 we might have a DH.

    If you could get what was listed in the first post (I don't think that is anywhere near good enough) then I do it in a heart beat. You might be able to sell Stanton to the Sox or Yanks as a 1B if things don't work out.
    Sure I would rather have Stanton than Kemp right now, but for ten more years and TWICE the money...ummm...no.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    I can see him being dealt. I just don't see him being given away. His contract is huge and he gets hurt. But he's still uber talented and a name.

    They've started over before and they could do it again. But I don't see them giving him away. They might give away Prado. Maybe even Gordon. But Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna etc are going to cost at least one top 3 prospect IMO. I'm not sure I would want to go there.

    But maybe you can get Prado for nothing. Maybe they'd deal Realmuto for something not amazing...Ruiz (if you think Demerrite is your guy next year and/or you think Prado or another FA is).
    I still think the concept of surplus value applies here. By all accounts Stanton has negative trade value due to that contract. No team will take on all of it and give up anything of value in return. Marlins will need to eat some of it or take a bad contract in return to make it work if they want a good prospect coming back.

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    I would need Yelich in the deal (ala Kimbrel deal)....and that would never happen.

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    Obviously, I have been one of the leaders of the trade everyone if it makes sense - (thanks for being my lifeguard Nucksie) and build through smart trades and smart moves.

    But, I do admit that it is possible to buy your way to being competitive either through FA acquisition if you have enough money or trade if you have enough money and/or are willing to give up young talent.

    What a don't believe in is a half assed rebuild where you dip your toe into the water then decide it is too cold and painful as far as dismantling the team as part of a future build. I also don't believe in some half assed throw the ball up for grabs in the end zone tactic and hope your guy comes down with it where you declare your rebuild over because you need it to be then spend year after year trying to hold everything together with various colors and types of bailing wire and tape (guys like Colon, Dickey, Johnson, etc.). That way leads to failure or perpetual baseball purgatory - not good enough to win anything, not bad enough to fire everybody and rebuild again the right way.

    There are those who want the magic pill. They don't want the pain associated with building the hard, right way where you don't have unlimited funds, but also don't want to watch mediocre baseball. They want sugar and spice with no real idea of how that is supposed to happen. In other words, they want to make an effort that falls between minimal and adequate to rebuild then trust luck to arrive.

    I'm not that way. I say either grit your teeth and take the 5 year rebuild and do it right, no excuses, no regrets, accept the bad baseball along the way to better days ahead OR proactively work to make your team better in a major way, not some little incremental step process where you know that the sum is still far from the goal but good luck could make the difference once in a blue moon.
    Last edited by Horsehide Harry; 06-06-2017 at 09:07 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I still think the concept of surplus value applies here. By all accounts Stanton has negative trade value due to that contract. No team will take on all of it and give up anything of value in return. Marlins will need to eat some of it or take a bad contract in return to make it work if they want a good prospect coming back.
    If that's the case I'd take Prado + Stanton + Realmuto for Neck + Adonis + Harrington + Blair + Wisler. I do that deal in a minute. It's a lot of money but we aren't paying anyone other than Freddie and Tehran any real money. The TV deal will get better. It would keep us from rushing Acuna and others. And I could look to flip Kemp if someone was desperate (Yanks/Sox for a 1B bat).

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    Technically he can opt out after 2020. I doubt he would do that, but it depends on what he's produced and what the market looks like at that point.

    $25 million likely won't be a huge contract come 2027. But still, no way do I try to bring him in and no way do the Marlins deal him without getting something in return.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Obviously, I have been one of the leaders of the trade everyone if it makes sense - (thanks for being my lifeguard Nucksie) and build through smart trades and smart moves.

    But, I do admit that it is possible to buy your way to being competitive either through FA acquisition if you have enough money or trade if you have enough money and/or are willing to give up young talent.

    What a don't believe in is a half assed rebuild where you dip your toe into the water then decide it is too cold and painful as far as dismantling the team as part of a future build. I also don't believe in some half assed throw the ball up for grabs in the end zone tactic and hope your guy comes down with it where you declare your rebuild over because you need it to be then spend year after year trying to hold everything together with various colors and types of bailing wire and tape (guys like Colon, Dickey, Johnson, etc.). That way leads to failure or perpetual baseball purgatory - not good enough to win anything, not bad enough to fire everybody and rebuild again the right way.

    There are those who want the magic pill. They don't want the pain associated with building the hard, right way where you don't have unlimited funds, but also don't want to watch mediocre baseball. They want sugar and spice with no real idea of how that is supposed to happen. In other words, they want to make an effort that falls between minimal and adequate to rebuild then trust luck to arrive.

    I'm not that way. I say either grit your teeth and take the 5 year rebuild and do it right, no excuses, no regrets, accept the bad baseball along the way to better days ahead OR proactively work to make your team better in a major way, not some little incremental step process where you know that the sum is still far from the goal but good luck could make the difference once in a blue moon.
    That is always a bad move, especially when you don't have a monster payroll.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    If that's the case I'd take Prado + Stanton + Realmuto for Neck + Adonis + Harrington + Blair + Wisler. I do that deal in a minute. It's a lot of money but we aren't paying anyone other than Freddie and Tehran any real money. The TV deal will get better. It would keep us from rushing Acuna and others. And I could look to flip Kemp if someone was desperate (Yanks/Sox for a 1B bat).
    I have this fear that the MLB TV bubble is going to bust right before the Braves can cash in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    If that's the case I'd take Prado + Stanton + Realmuto for Neck + Adonis + Harrington + Blair + Wisler. I do that deal in a minute. It's a lot of money but we aren't paying anyone other than Freddie and Tehran any real money. The TV deal will get better. It would keep us from rushing Acuna and others. And I could look to flip Kemp if someone was desperate (Yanks/Sox for a 1B bat).
    Realmuto has some real value. He would offset the negative expected surplus value associated with Stanton and his contract. The other aspects of your trade idea are minimal in terms of value.

    So yeah Realmuto plus Stanton is interesting to me. For effectively throw-ins in return.

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    Lol at the thought of the Braves wanting to compete and do so anytime soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    That is always a bad move, especially when you don't have a monster payroll.
    It's a gamble no doubt. But, everything is a gamble.

    If the gamble works out, you get a Dave Winfield type career out of Stanton over the next 10 years and a core piece to plug in to the center of your line up. If the gamble doesn't pay off you end up with Bobby Bonilla, the Mets years.

    But, you also could have the possibility that Freeman gets a broken wrist or some other ailment and you end up with Casey Kotchman.

    In any event, Freeman's best years are going to be wasted unless the Braves make some serious moves to find him some help. And while the Kemp move has worked out better than most expected so far, it still wasn't a good move overall and not nearly enough to move the needle.

    The thing is, most of the help is 2-3 years plus away in the minors. Those that are relatively close shouldn't be expected to come up and be AllStar players right away (Acuna and Albies) assuming they work out at all, and neither will likely be immediate core bats.

    Every year you have to wait for a confluence of talent from the minors, Freeman gets older and his skills diminish a little. So, even assuming that you get a confluence within the next 2-3 years, what you will have is a high water mark where the young guys mesh with the few older guys like Freeman, then the Freeman guys talent begins to drop and the team begins to fade away while those contracts play out. It's like the Pirates and Royals.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    It's a gamble no doubt. But, everything is a gamble.

    If the gamble works out, you get a Dave Winfield type career out of Stanton over the next 10 years and a core piece to plug in to the center of your line up. If the gamble doesn't pay off you end up with Bobby Bonilla, the Mets years.

    But, you also could have the possibility that Freeman gets a broken wrist or some other ailment and you end up with Casey Kotchman.

    In any event, Freeman's best years are going to be wasted unless the Braves make some serious moves to find him some help. And while the Kemp move has worked out better than most expected so far, it still wasn't a good move overall and not nearly enough to move the needle.

    The thing is, most of the help is 2-3 years plus away in the minors. Those that are relatively close shouldn't be expected to come up and be AllStar players right away (Acuna and Albies) assuming they work out at all, and neither will likely be immediate core bats.

    Every year you have to wait for a confluence of talent from the minors, Freeman gets older and his skills diminish a little. So, even assuming that you get a confluence within the next 2-3 years, what you will have is a high water mark where the young guys mesh with the few older guys like Freeman, then the Freeman guys talent begins to drop and the team begins to fade away while those contracts play out. It's like the Pirates and Royals.
    You're acting as though our only window is while Freeman is in his prime. I don't buy that at all. I'm not saying the idea of trading Freeman shouldn't ever be entertained, but just because you might only get a few top years out of him while competitive doesn't mean he should definitely be traded.

    And sure, everything is a gamble. Some are smart and others are not. Gambling that Freeman doesn't become Casey Kotchman is a good one. Gambling that Stanton is worth his contract is not. Let's not pretend that all gambles are equal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Realmuto has some real value. He would offset the negative expected surplus value associated with Stanton and his contract. The other aspects of your trade idea are minimal in terms of value.

    So yeah Realmuto plus Stanton is interesting to me. For effectively throw-ins in return.
    Realmuto is real interesting to the Marlins, too. He's not going anywhere. He's a perfect Marlin. Good and cheap.

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