Dansby Swanson Already Proving He Belongs

[bravesfanMatt]

surely they are aware of this

and probably don't care.. or he doesn't.

[smootness]

Technically he can have 14 more AB and not lose his rookie status, as you just can't exceed 130 AB. I don't think he would end up surpassing that in 4 games, so they really only need to sit him once.

[GovClintonTyree]

This is the problem with unrealistic expectations.

Barry Larkin posted 70 career WAR and was elected to the HoF. That is pretty much exactly what you hope a #1 pick does. I don't think Swanson will see that level of power, and I think he will be better defensively. I see Larkin as Swanson's ceiling offensively, and I think Swanson is a lock to be better defensively than Larkin.

Trammell also posted 70 career WAR, but since his value was derived more from defense than Larkin (.767 OPS vs .815), he is in that tier of players just below the HOF. He still made 6 AS teams, won a few GGs, and was #2 in the MVP voting in '87 and finished in the top 10 a few other times. The man's career line is .285/.352/.415, which seem freakishly similar to what folks expect from Swanson. I see that as Swanson's most likely production level offensively. If Swanson really is the next Alan Trammell all braves fans should be extremely excited.

If Swanson somehow produces at Larkin's level offensively and Trammell's level defensively, and does it for the better part of 2 decades we are looking at a 75-80 career WAR HoF player.

I suspect Dansby will be the one to decide what expectations are reasonable, not Enscheff.

It's the easiest thing in the world to look at somebody who's playing better than average/expected and knock all their numbers down 20% and say THAT'S reasonable, or for somebody less than average/expected add 25% and say that's what's expected. That doesn't make you an oracle.

Some players will continue to make all star teams and be elected to the HOF, and I think it's entirely appropriate to speculate that maybe THIS is the guy who will be better than average.

[goldfly]

and probably don't care.. or he doesn't.

if his agent is worth a penny

he knows it and should be on the phone trying to make it known to sit him

and it makes sense that from the Braves spot to want a ROY candidate for the new park and if we think we are turning the corner etc

[Enscheff]

I suspect Dansby will be the one to decide what expectations are reasonable, not Enscheff.

It's the easiest thing in the world to look at somebody who's playing better than average/expected and knock all their numbers down 20% and say THAT'S reasonable, or for somebody less than average/expected add 25% and say that's what's expected. That doesn't make you an oracle.

Some players will continue to make all star teams and be elected to the HOF, and I think it's entirely appropriate to speculate that maybe THIS is the guy who will be better than average.

I don't even understand the point you are trying to make.

Are you saying I think Swanson is currently over-performing with his .722 OPS?

Are you saying I am calling Swanson an average player because I think he is comparable to Alan Trammell? Do you know how good Trammell was?

So instead of just whining about me being "an oracle", why don't you tell us how good you think Swanson will be? Better than Trammell? Better than Larkin? The next Cal Ripken or ARod?

[GovClintonTyree]

I don't even understand the point you are trying to make.

Are you saying I think Swanson is currently over-performing with his .722 OPS?

Are you saying I am calling Swanson an average player because I think he is comparable to Alan Trammell? Do you know how good Trammell was?

So instead of just whining about me being "an oracle", why don't you tell us how good you think Swanson will be? Better than Trammell? Better than Larkin? The next Cal Ripken or ARod?

That wasn't whining, I was whacking you with my pimp hand. Geez.

I need five years of data for the defensive WAR to stabilize and to assess whether he'll have an early peak or a mid-career one, so I really can't yet make that judgement. I could just look at an average player, extrapolate Dansby's month over a year and divide by two, but that seems dishonest.

The honor is in picking the outliers.

[Enscheff]

That wasn't whining, I was whacking you with my pimp hand. Geez.

I need five years of data for the defensive WAR to stabilize and to assess whether he'll have an early peak or a mid-career one, so I really can't yet make that judgement. I could just look at an average player, extrapolate Dansby's month over a year and divide by two, but that seems dishonest.

The honor is in picking the outliers.

So in other words, you didn't have a point to add. Got it.

[clvclv]

So in other words, you didn't have a point to add. Got it.

Does anyone as far as you're concerned?

[GovClintonTyree]

So in other words, you didn't have a point to add. Got it.

Nah. The point was to tweak Enscheff, Internet Poster. Now I'm done. Until tomorrow, when you impart some more wisdom.

[thewupk]

117 AB's. Can only have 13 more with 4 games to go. Sitting 1 game should seal it.

[clvclv]

117 AB's. Can only have 13 more with 4 games to go. Sitting 1 game should seal it.

And Castro certainly did enough last night to earn a start at SS in one of these last 4 games.

(Just need to make sure the brass has made Snitker aware he's that close in case he wants to use him as a pinch-hitter or one of them goes into extra innings.)

[bravesguy]

And Castro certainly did enough last night to earn a start at SS in one of these last 4 games.

(Just need to make sure the brass has made Snitker aware he's that close in case he wants to use him as a pinch-hitter or one of them goes into extra innings.)

Nah, Just play him for the remaining of the season until he is 1 hit shy. Then tell him, "you did great and sit him down". Maybe he walks 3+ times over the next 4 games and he is fine.

If Snit sits him, it will have to be tonight. He said he is playing his starters against Detroit because it will impact the playoffs.

[clvclv]

Nah, Just play him for the remaining of the season until he is 1 hit shy. Then tell him, "you did great and sit him down". Maybe he walks 3+ times over the next 4 games and he is fine.

If Snit sits him, it will have to be tonight. He said he is playing his starters against Detroit because it will impact the playoffs.

Quite sure that Snit will sit him if he's told to regardless of what he told the press. Just sayin'.

[Enscheff]

117 AB's. Can only have 13 more with 4 games to go. Sitting 1 game should seal it.

This is actually the 2nd most interesting thing about the end of this season. I truly hope Swanson ends up with exactly 130 ABs in the last game of the season just to see if they PH for him late in the game.

[thewupk]

This is actually the 2nd most interesting thing about the end of this season. I truly hope Swanson ends up with exactly 130 ABs in the last game of the season just to see if they PH for him late in the game.

It's happened before. Scott Rolen got to his 130th career AB on Sep 7, 1996. He was replaced in the middle of the game and didn't play the rest of the season. He went on to win ROY in 97.

[yeezus]

It's happened before. Scott Rolen got to his 130th career AB on Sep 7, 1996. He was replaced in the middle of the game and didn't play the rest of the season. He went on to win ROY in 97.

Rolen was like, never happy with the Phillies.

[gilesfan]

Sitting him so he can be a candidate for rookie of the year next year is pretty stupid.

[thewupk]

Sitting him so he can be a candidate for rookie of the year next year is pretty stupid.

What the Phillies did was stupid. 1 game isn't that big of a deal.

[Enscheff]

Yeah I don't see the big deal. It's stupid for him to be accumulating MLB service time already, so they may as well get the minor bump in coverage a ROY campaign will give the team.

[skillet]

Dansby is again in the starting lineup tonight, and Snit has already stated all his starters will be in for the last 3 games. Swanson is currently at 117 at bats. If he accumulates 14 more (3.5 per game), he loses rookie eligibility. If we allow that to happen we are idiots.