2018 Offseason And Targets

[striker42]

It had to be an overhyped Yankee. It just had to be.

Absolutely. I wont say that Rivera didn't deserve to be in the Hall. He's probably the best closer in the history of the game. When you're the best ever at your position you should be in the Hall. But the only reason he was unanimous is because of where he played. If he'd been the Braves closer, he'd have gone into the Hall but it wouldn't be unanimous.

To illustrate, Greg Maddux had a career WAR nearly 3 times that of Rivera, had absolutely zero suspicion of steroid use, won 4 Cy Youngs, and is regarded by many as the best pure pitcher in the history of the game. He was not unanimous.

Honestly, if it wasn't for racism you'd probably have already had a unanimous selection in Aaron or Mays.

[striker42]

Rivera has a postseason ERA under 1, he's the best closer ever, he's not overhyped.

Best closer ever gets you into the Hall. Overhyped gets you in as a unanimous selection. Dude belongs in the hall but there are literally dozens of players that have better resumes.

[Heyward]

At the end of this season the following salaries potentially come off the books: Donaldson (23M), Teheran (11), O'Day (9), Viz (4.8), Muk (4), McCann(2). There will be some offsets from raises and payouts from options declined. But that's a lot of dough to play with. It seems to me this was part of the game plan that has been executed this off-season.

In thinking about who we might pursue next off-season, Grandal stands out as a logical possibility. He will no longer have a QO attached.

By next off-season, I think we will be in a better position to make judgments as to the future roles of Riley and Camargo. Can they play the outfield. Should they be counted on as regulars. This will allow us to make a better informed decision as to where to commit the $$$ and maybe prospect capital for making a long-term commitment to someone at third or corner outfield.

Finally, we will also be in a much better position to evaluate starting pitching needs.

The desirability of having an additional season to evaluate Camargo, Riley, the starting pitchers, and maybe Pache and Waters drove a lot of our strategy this off-season. When he was first hired AA made the point he needed time to make his own evaluations of all of these guys. I think even after a season as GM, he felt more time was needed before making long-term commitments. So he has made a bunch of short-term moves that leave the team in decent shape for 2019 but even better shape (especially in terms of financial flexibility) next off-season and beyond.

He has also relentlessly pursued value acquisitions in his tenure in Atlanta so far this year. This is something I'm very happy about. I hope it continues.

Not bad thinking but Gausman will be A4, Folty will be A3, Swanson will be A1, Venters A4, Winkler A3, Culby A2, Duvall A2. Granted only the first 2 should be semi expensive but every penny counts.

But Braves may only have 30 mil in payroll committed next year before arb so there will be some money to play with at least. And as said, we'll have another year to evaluate who is what, but there's risk some of these players decline and their value wont be as high as it is today so there's a risk there.

[Super]

i think Mo being the first unanimous may also be about changing tides. there are different voters now, PED guys are getting more votes. Larry Walker, who should be in, saw a big jump. So i think we may see more unanimous selections moving forward, because it's really dumb that certain voters wouldn't vote for guys simply because they felt "no body should get in the first time."

[Southcack77]

Debatable. At least in the long run, I'd much rather have Albies. There is a non-zero chance (though may be not likely) Albies could be a 5 WAR player this year. He was at 3.8 in his first full season after all.

You are proving it is debatable, I suppose, but it isn't a debate for me.

Yelich is cost-controlled for four years and IS a 5+ MVP caliber player right now. He fits the Braves needs perfectly and is probably will produce a good 120m+ in surplus value.

The Braves could have shifted Camargo over to 2B where he would likely make up a fair amount of Albies' surplus value (perhaps all of it, if Albies is really the below average hitter he looked to be after May 1 and Camargo is who he's been with the bat).

the Braves then go into 2019 with three MVP talents in their prime with the financial ability to still add Donaldson if they wanted to make it four and trade for Realmuto.

the braves could not have known that they would contend in 2018 and probably didn't have reason to believe that Yelich was a 7.6 win player, but I think they'd go back and make that deal in hindsight if the Marlins would take an Albies package.

[Southcack77]

This is the problem with constantly looking at FV over actual value. How can you say you'd rather have Albies when Yelich won the MVP last year? Look at how cheaply the 2B could've been had this offseason and now we are going to be starting NICK F MARKAKIS in right.

Not to mention the Braves have Camargo, who was a 3 win pre-arb player himself, that could shift to 2B.

[NinersSBChamps]

Pathetic.

What is? The fact that Rivera got it or that it took so long for a unanimous selection?

[Southcack77]

actually no

Firmly disagree.

Yelich is a better player and likely will be a better player for the next four years.

Had the Braves made a trade centered around Albies in 2018, they would have had had a much better chance of actually winning a title and I think that would continue to be the case through Yelich's four years of control.

That's a suitable return for Albies' prospect value in my book.

[Southcack77]

Not bad thinking but Gausman will be A4, Folty will be A3, Swanson will be A1, Venters A4, Winkler A3, Culby A2, Duvall A2. Granted only the first 2 should be semi expensive but every penny counts.

But Braves may only have 30 mil in payroll committed next year before arb so there will be some money to play with at least. And as said, we'll have another year to evaluate who is what, but there's risk some of these players decline and their value wont be as high as it is today so there's a risk there.

I think there is a reasonable chance the Braves won't be paying Gausman past this season. We'll have to see how he and Folty perform this season, but trading him to free the money to pay Folty makes perfect sense if the Braves young pitchers are encouraging in 2019.

Venters, Winkler, Culberson, Duvall are all non-tender candidates if they don't agree to team friendly terms.

[thewupk]

What is? The fact that Rivera got it or that it took so long for a unanimous selection?

Both?

I have no problems with Rivera being unanimous. IMO you are either a hall of famer or not and Rivera clearly is. There are a lot players more deserving of being unanimous though. That being said I think it's good that the dinosaur voters are finally being pushed out. Moose finally got in and now Walker has a decent shot of making it next year as does Schilling. Bonds and Clemens also keep creeping up too. Good times.

[thewupk]

Firmly disagree.

Yelich is a better player and likely will be a better player for the next four years.

Had the Braves made a trade centered around Albies in 2018, they would have had had a much better chance of actually winning a title and I think that would continue to be the case through Yelich's four years of control.

That's a suitable return for Albies' prospect value in my book.

I'm not going to sell Albies short. Steamer has Yelich at 4.8 WAR and Ozzie at 4.4 for 2019 for example. Strong up the middle defenders are WAR machines and Albies is that guy.

[nsacpi]

That's a suitable return for Albies' prospect value in my book.

Perhaps we are getting into semantics here. Suitable return to me implies approximately equal in value. I would agree with that. Looking at it from now. Looking at it from the perspective of last off-season, it should be noted most people around here would have applied a fairly large discount factor to 2018 due the expectation the team would not contend.

[bravesfanMatt]

I'm not going to sell Albies short. Steamer has Yelich at 4.8 WAR and Ozzie at 4.4 for 2019 for example. Strong up the middle defenders are WAR machines and Albies is that guy.

Going bold here and saying Ozzie out wars yelich next year. Not to mention age difference and 2 extra years of control. I keep Ozzie every time.

[thewupk]

Going bold here and saying Ozzie out wars yelich next year. Not to mention age difference and 2 extra years of control. I keep Ozzie every time.

It's not a stretch. I suspect in 2019 Ozzie hits better and Yelich comes back down a little. He had a huge ISO jump that I'm not sold on being his norm right now. I bet both will be ~5 WAR players.

[nsacpi]

Going bold here and saying Ozzie out wars yelich next year. Not to mention age difference and 2 extra years of control. I keep Ozzie every time.

1 extra year of control. But Ozzie is very young and likely to be the better player in a couple years. Also lower salary.

[Southcack77]

Perhaps we are getting into semantics here. Suitable return to me implies approximately equal in value. I would agree with that. Looking at it from now. Looking at it from the perspective of last off-season, it should be noted most people around here would have applied a fairly large discount factor to 2018 due the expectation the team would not contend.

Well the whole thing is an exercise in hindsight, because the Brewers would not trade Yelich now.

Like much of what we've talked about this offseason, there isn't a whole lot of point to the discussion because it is certainly moot.

the Braves didn't want to trade FV for PV in 2018, because they didn't feel like they were in it. That was a fair call in my view.

I also don't mind them not doing much else this offseason, though I think they will end up doing a few more things. I would rather they save their powder for a move that fits perfectly.

But in hindsight, Yelich really would have turned out to be a fairly perfect fit for the teams needs last year and near future.

[Heyward]

Thought it was interesting there wasnt much talk about Markakis then right when he's close to being brought back, Rosenthal tweets it out.

AA works very quietly to say the least.

Regarding Albies/Yelich, on the surface that's not a bad trade, but no one saw the Braves being as good as they were last year. That is the kind of player you move Ozzie for though in hypothetical scenario.

[Southcack77]

Going bold here and saying Ozzie out wars yelich next year. Not to mention age difference and 2 extra years of control. I keep Ozzie every time.

Yelich is 27.

It's one extra year of control.

You can project whatever you want to project Albies to be, but Yelich is pretty clearly the better bet to be worth more wins in the near future.

I think Albies is fine, but he was a bad hitter after May and horrendous in the last two months. Like significantly worse than Markakis horrendous.

I don't think we have any idea what Albies is at this point. His offensive approach doesn't make a hell of a lot of sense for his tools in my view. His April was fun while it lasted, but reality set in thereafter.

[Southcack77]

1 extra year of control. But Ozzie is very young and likely to be the better player in a couple years. Also lower salary.

I don't think it's especially likely that Ozzie is the better player during the next four years.

[bravesfanMatt]

1 extra year of control. But Ozzie is very young and likely to be the better player in a couple years. Also lower salary.

Missed option in 2022. Thanks