2018 Offseason And Targets

[Horsehide Harry]

So your view is that if a freshman congressman from New York somehow manages to dramatically overhaul the tax code, that the best baseball players in the world are going to head to the Japanese league? LOL.

And this is something that baseball players signing contracts now should seriously take into consideration?

They are going to go where they make the most money just like any sane human being. The reason for that is that they are playing the game for money. If the tax code changes to the point where 70-90% of what they make goes away in the form of taxes, then yeah, I think you'll see guys heading away. Even now, players take into consideration State and local taxes when deciding where they want to play even though that is a relatively minor amount. If you change the tax code it WILL cause a response. If there are enough tax loopholes, write-offs, etc. to reduce the effective tax paid, then that will impact the response as well.

Watch what happens if the Trump tax changes stick. One of the big changes made was the new limit on what can be written off in terms of State, property and local taxes. Your bluest of blue States have used that for years and can't now. States like CA, NY, IL, NJ etc that have heavy State, Property and other tax obligations could soften the economic blow locally by using that as a write off on Federal taxes. The Trump tax bill changed that. If it sticks, and it looks like it will, then you're going to see migration of peoples out of those States and into States like Texas and Florida. This will also be true for businesses that will either have to raise compensation to keep employees or find employees willing to make an effective lesser wage, or move out of State into a friendlier tax area. When that happens, the erosion of the tax base in these States will become chronic and the ratio of tax payers versus benefit collectors will be unsustainable. As the wage migration progresses, many leaving those States will carry their Blue leanings with them into States like Texas, making the political landscape there bluer as well.

All that said, I can't believe that The USA is going to be a Socialist Country so the "then" part of the issue, likely isn't relevant.

[Super]

All that said, I can't believe that The USA is going to be a Socialist Country so the "then" part of the issue, likely isn't relevant.

you don't know what socialism is lol.
wanna bet people will remain on the eastern and western coasts?
even if that did happen, major league players, especially american-born ones, won't be leaving for a way lesser league in japan.
it's nice you can throw out this hypothetical knowing it likely won't happen tho.

[Southcack77]

Please explain to me how JD GREATLY improves a position that was occupied by a 24 year old player who just posted a 3+ WAR season?

Josh Donaldson has a track record of being one of the five best players in baseball and put up a month long sample consistent with that talent level in September.

Johan Camargo is a guy who most people believe is a utility infielder.

Either way, this is not an especially good argument. If Camargo is a 3+ win player, he's likely to get 500 at bats or more. In which case, the massive upgrade is not having to watch Dansby or Markakis or Inciarte or Albies fail as much.

[Horsehide Harry]

I don't think catcher is a given to be a net downgrade.

McCann and Suzuki weren't all that dissimilar last year...especially when framing is added to the equation. Both are old.

I'd still prefer to add Realmuto if the price makes sense, but a McCann/Flowers platoon probably wouldn't be much if any worse than Suzuki/Flowers.

That depends greatly on health

[Southcack77]

They are going to go where they make the most money just like any sane human being. The reason for that is that they are playing the game for money. If the tax code changes to the point where 70-90% of what they make goes away in the form of taxes, then yeah, I think you'll see guys heading away. Even now, players take into consideration State and local taxes when deciding where they want to play even though that is a relatively minor amount. If you change the tax code it WILL cause a response. If there are enough tax loopholes, write-offs, etc. to reduce the effective tax paid, then that will impact the response as well.

Watch what happens if the Trump tax changes stick. One of the big changes made was the new limit on what can be written off in terms of State, property and local taxes. Your bluest of blue States have used that for years and can't now. States like CA, NY, IL, NJ etc that have heavy State, Property and other tax obligations could soften the economic blow locally by using that as a write off on Federal taxes. The Trump tax bill changed that. If it sticks, and it looks like it will, then you're going to see migration of peoples out of those States and into States like Texas and Florida. This will also be true for businesses that will either have to raise compensation to keep employees or find employees willing to make an effective lesser wage, or move out of State into a friendlier tax area. When that happens, the erosion of the tax base in these States will become chronic and the ratio of tax payers versus benefit collectors will be unsustainable. As the wage migration progresses, many leaving those States will carry their Blue leanings with them into States like Texas, making the political landscape there bluer as well.

All that said, I can't believe that The USA is going to be a Socialist Country so the "then" part of the issue, likely isn't relevant.

There is no realistic universe in which playing baseball in Japan will be more profitable than playing baseball in the United States in a time frame that would impact any present player's decision making.

[Carp]

donaldson is a much bigger potential improvement than the step "down" to mccann and down to old markakis. mccann could easily be as valuable as suzuki was last year, especially if you factor in framing and the ability to now actually platoon your catchers.
you'll have acuña all year.
but really, donaldson alone improves 2 spots greatly. i think mccann and suzuki will be a wash, with markakis likely returning to a 1-WAR player.

I agree. Also isn't out of the realm of possibilities that Duval could bounce back to pre-2018 levels. And/or Camargo may see significant time in LF. As is, I'd say there is a strong chance the group of Neck, Duval, and Camargo can combine for 2 WAR, which is basically a wash from 2018 Neck. Healthy Donaldson that makes 130-140 starts produces 4-5 WAR.

[Enscheff]

Yes, I'm implying that you are a tad slow. Now, run a long Sthuper.

Comedic gold coming from the guy quoted in my sig lol.

Claiming JD isn't a huge improvement over what Camargo is likely to produce in 2019 is...moronic.

[bravesfanMatt]

please, i beg you, read. thoroughly.
camargo overperformed. he was not likely to put up 3.3 WAR again.
donaldson is an MVP level player. i'll take the over on that from him. by a good margin if he plays 120+.

Where is your evidence that he wouldn’t put up a 3+ again? Or are you speculating.

[Super]

Where is your evidence that he wouldn’t put up a 3+ again? Or are you speculating.

"not likely."
based on numbers enscheff has laid out a few times regarding exit velo.

[Enscheff]

As fun as it is pointing out how dumb the twits on these boards are, Bowman just came out with another hot take..even though every hot take he's made this off season has been wrong. At what point does he does give up and eat himself to death so the Braves can get a beat writer with at least a shred of talent?

"Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna Jr. being the only untouchables within the organization. But if forced to add two more from this list, I'll go with Anderson and Wright"

We will see relatively soon if Anderson's spin rate concerns removed him from the "untouchable" group.

[Enscheff]

Where is your evidence that he wouldn’t put up a 3+ again? Or are you speculating.

I will gladly accept any stakes offered that Camargo never tops his 2018 production of 3.3 fWAR.

[Enscheff]

Friend
10:23 If the Nats sign Harper, which of the other outfielders gets traded? Eaton? Robles? Taylor? What type of return could you get for each of them?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23 Eaton
The return would be a modest two-prospect package, with one of them being major-league ready as a reliever

I was rooting for this exact scenario before they brought Markakis back.

[Horsehide Harry]

you don't know what socialism is lol.
wanna bet people will remain on the eastern and western coasts?
even if that did happen, major league players, especially american-born ones, won't be leaving for a way lesser league in japan.
it's nice you can throw out this hypothetical knowing it likely won't happen tho.

I know exactly what socialism is as a political construct.

But, I don't intend to get into political debate except as it pertains to baseball. Having said that, I think most/all MLB players are capitalists. If they have the ability to go elsewhere and earn as opposed to staying local and not, then I think it's easy to see what will happen. Why are they Cubans defecting to play baseball in the US? Why did the Russians, Swedes, Norwegians, Danes, etc. come to the US to play Hockey? It's about the money with a small part about the competition. If you take away the money where do the Cubans go? Japan.

Look, if you want to see the 0.01% howl, make the tax rate 40% and get rid of ALL deductions.

[Horsehide Harry]

There is no realistic universe in which playing baseball in Japan will be more profitable than playing baseball in the United States in a time frame that would impact any present player's decision making.

I never said it would. In fact I said it wouldn't. Again, my original response was an "if" "then" not a "when." I was answering a hypothetical.

[dak]

Braves have expressed interest in Devin Mesoraco as 3rd catcher at AAA on an MiLB deal.

Do you honestly see McCann and Flowers combining to give the Braves 162 games behind the plate?
-- @JBLittle3

Flowers served as the Braves' starting catcher for 69 of the 137 regular-season games remaining after he returned from the disabled list. This was equal to a pace of 81 starts. McCann logged 94 starts as the Astros' catcher in 2017. Both are older than 30, and McCann is less than a year removed from having his right knee repaired. But regardless of age or recent healthy history, Atlanta needs to gain more insurance at this position with the depth that will exist at the Triple-A level. They've expressed interest in Devin Mesoraco, but he is seeking the chance to begin the season at the Major League level. As things stand, the insurance at Gwinnett will consist of Raffy Lopez and Alex Jackson.

https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/do-b...?tid=218325368

[CrazyTrain]

please, i beg you, read. thoroughly.
camargo overperformed. he was not likely to put up 3.3 WAR again.
donaldson is an MVP level player. i'll take the over on that from him. by a good margin if he plays 120+.

You literally wrote "JD greatly improves two positions"... and why do you think Camargo over performed and isn't likely to repeat? Any specific stats you can point to?

I mean, I guess we'll never know since we relegated him to the bench... even getting steady ABs we have no idea how that will impact him.

Donaldson WAS an MVP level player. It remains to be seen if he can recapture that form after his prime is over.

[Super]

I know exactly what socialism is as a political construct.

But, I don't intend to get into political debate except as it pertains to baseball. Having said that, I think most/all MLB players are capitalists. If they have the ability to go elsewhere and earn as opposed to staying local and not, then I think it's easy to see what will happen. Why are they Cubans defecting to play baseball in the US? Why did the Russians, Swedes, Norwegians, Danes, etc. come to the US to play Hockey? It's about the money with a small part about the competition. If you take away the money where do the Cubans go? Japan.

Look, if you want to see the 0.01% howl, make the tax rate 40% and get rid of ALL deductions.

high top tax rate =! socialism.
and, still no. players will not leave the USA to go live in japan a majority of the year, regardless of marginal tax rates. the stars won't have more earning power in japan regardless.
our highest marginal rate is 39.6% with tons of loopholes. why aren't the worlds best soccer players coming here rather than playing in Germany, Italy, Spain, etc?

[rawwr]

I never said it would. In fact I said it wouldn't. Again, my original response was an "if" "then" not a "when." I was answering a hypothetical.

I think the point he's trying to make is that, even in a world where the US passed Ocasio-Cortez's 70% marginal tax rate on income over $10 million, it's not going to be profitable for players to leave for Japan, or any other baseball-playing country because a) the 70% rate is marginal, meaning it only applies to income over $10 million, b) despite being the second largest baseball market in the world, Japan's 3 highest-paid players only made ~$4.5 million in 2017, and the average Japanese player's salary is less than one-tenth that of MLB players, and c) Japan already taxes income over $365,000 at 45% so it's not like they're some tax-free utopia.

[BeanieAntics]

You literally wrote "JD greatly improves two positions"... and why do you think Camargo over performed and isn't likely to repeat? Any specific stats you can point to?

I mean, I guess we'll never know since we relegated him to the bench... even getting steady ABs we have no idea how that will impact him.

Donaldson WAS an MVP level player. It remains to be seen if he can recapture that form after his prime is over.

How about a -.048 delta between his wOBA and xwOBA against right handed pitching? Or even a -.020 point delta against left handed pitching. The dude was pretty lucky last year and its relatively unlikely that he'd be able to repeat a 3 win season.

[BeanieAntics]

I'm so glad that I'm getting a refresher course in marginal tax rates.