Third and Center

[nsacpi]

It is going to be very interesting to see how the situations at third and center play out over the next year. There are lots of moving parts involved and quite a few possible scenarios.

The pieces on the board include:

1) Two weak incumbents whose production is toward the bottom of the range for major league starters at their positions.

2) One top tier prospect (Peraza) who doesn't play either position, but probably has the ability to do so at an acceptable level in the majors.

3) Two solid second tier prospects (Kubitza and Wren) who project more as major league bench players but who have a chance to develop into starters.

4) Some third tier prospects who mostly likely will not be part of the long-term solution, but could fill in on a short-term basis. Cunningham in center and Castro, Elmer Reyes, and Gosselin at third.

The scenarios include:

1) Best case. The incumbents step up their games and produce at an average or above average level for starters their position, and the prospects develop. In this scenario we can trade one or both incumbents, creating payroll flexibility and strengthening the team elsewhere.

2) Worst case. The incumbents fail to produce at a level above replacement level and the prospects fail to develop. In this scenario the team either has to tolerate poor performances from two starters or must trade from other areas to shore up those two positions. The possibility of eating additional bad contracts arises.

3) Intermediate scenarios include one but not both incumbents stepping up and one but no more than one prospect developing. In this scenario we can fill in the remaining weak spot internally but there is no surplus to deal away. There remains a potential need to eat at least part of a bad contract.

My guess is that some sort of intermediate scenario is most likely. I won't hazard a guess as to which of BJ or CJ is the most likely to step up his game. I find myself rooting for both but I'm not overly optimistic about either. I also think the odds are less than 50% than more than one of our players on the farm develop into starting caliber players at third or center.

[Dalyn]

How could you not be optimistic about Johnson?

[nsacpi]

How could you not be optimistic about Johnson?

CJ WAR numbers over the years:

2010 1.1 (362 PAs)
2011 -1.0 (405 PAs)
2012 1.3 (528 PAs)
2013 2.7 (547 PAs)
2014 0.5 (380 PAs)

Throw out his best year and his worst year and you get a pretty good picture of what kind of player he is. 1.0-1.5 WAR is a reasonable expectation. As I said in my opening post, that's towards the lower end of the range you see from starting players at his position.

I'm realistic. Not optimistic or pessimistic. He is not a disaster. A lot of championship teams have had a player of his caliber in their everyday lineup.

[GovClintonTyree]

CJ WAR numbers over the years:

2010 1.1 (362 PAs)
2011 -1.0 (405 PAs)
2012 1.3 (528 PAs)
2013 2.7 (547 PAs)
2014 0.5 (380 PAs)

Throw out his best year and his worst year and you get a pretty good picture of what kind of player he is. 1.0-1.5 WAR is a reasonable expectation. As I said in my opening post, that's towards the lower end of the range you see from starting players at his position.

I'm realistic. Not optimistic or pessimistic. He is not a disaster. A lot of championship teams have had a player of his caliber in their everyday lineup.

I don't think you can just throw out the top and bottom of five years and declare that his value. He's a better hitter, in my opinion, than he was in 2011.

I'd also like to see his offensive WARs (oWAR?), since I don't believe the currently available defensive metrics are trustworthy. I think he's more of a 2 oWAR player. As you say, there have been plenty of championship teams starting worse players.

BJ, I'm less optimistic on, but there's a chance he's productive.

What is the ETA for Kubitza and Wren? This strikes me (at least at third) as one of those "he sucks, this prospect and this one are better" moments. The grass is always greener, guys. A cheap line drive hitter with serviceable defense is valuable. You can't have a whole roster full, but you need a few.

I also like his attitude. He has spunk. All through the streak we wanted for a guy who would assault a toilet or a Gatorade bucket from time to time. Now we've got one, and I don't want to get rid of him.

[nsacpi]

What is the ETA for Kubitza and Wren?

Unless there is some sort of emergency need, I think those two should spend some time in AAA next season. Realistically, sometime in the second half of next year.

Ideally, Peraza gets some time in AAA too. He might (secretly of course) play some third or center in Venezuela this winter.

Both CJ and BJ are having a mini resurgence in July. I suspect we go to war with those two the rest of 2014.

[GovClintonTyree]

Unless there is some sort of emergency need, I think those two should spend some time in AAA next season. Realistically, sometime in the second half of next year.

Ideally, Peraza gets some time in AAA too. He might (secretly of course) play some third or center in Venezuela this winter.

Both CJ and BJ are having a mini resurgence in July. I suspect we go to war with those two the rest of 2014.

While I appreciate the need to temper our enthusiasm, CJ is hitting about .300/.340/.460 for June/July. I consider that more than a mini-resurgence.

[GovClintonTyree]

On my WAR question, I suspect WAR has Chris at about -1.0 dWAR per year, sound about right? And I don't think he hurts us defensively. So I'd tack on a WAR per year.

[Heyward]

CJ isnt perfect but we arent a 200-mil payroll club where we can have studs everywhere.

Unless Peraza was ready by 2015, CJ should start next season.

BJ isnt going anywhere like it or not.

[nsacpi]

On my WAR question, I suspect WAR has Chris at about -1.0 dWAR per year, sound about right? And I don't think he hurts us defensively. So I'd tack on a WAR per year.

dWAR from Baseball Reference:

2010 -1.5
2011 -1.1
2012 -0.8
2013 -0.7
2014 -1.2

From my observations he's every bit as bad as that. Btw, the way some of these defensive metrics work, having Simmons next to him makes CJ's defensive numbers look better since a smaller percentage of balls to his left get through for a hit and also he benefits by being able to position himself closer to the line.

[GovClintonTyree]

OK. Well, put me in the camp with Heyward that says there's no need for triage at 3B. If we develop a stud 3B, if Kubitza continues to develop, then by all means, make a change. Meanwhile, he's a good piece. He's got a little clutch in him, too.(yes, I'm aware of the projects that say there's no such thing as clutch).

[rico43]

Calling Cunningham a third-tier prospect makes me consider whether all of us, including yours truly, haven't been selling him short, in part because of injuries. Except for power, he seems to have most tools. Of course, that's true of just about anybody in the system. One reason why I keep hoping Skinner breaks out.

[rico43]

OK. Well, put me in the camp with Heyward that says there's no need for triage at 3B. If we develop a stud 3B, if Kubitza continues to develop, then by all means, make a change. Meanwhile, he's a good piece. He's got a little clutch in him, too.(yes, I'm aware of the projects that say there's no such thing as clutch).

With Johnson under control for the foreseeable future, I want to see how much of the early Edgerton showing is for real. Guy is an RBI machine so far who doesn't strike out much, and is an older college guy. I feel about him the way a lot feel about Kubitza, but I have fallen for lower level guys before (remember The Baron?).

[TomahawkCult]

I don't think you can just throw out the top and bottom of five years and declare that his value. He's a better hitter, in my opinion, than he was in 2011.

I'd also like to see his offensive WARs (oWAR?), since I don't believe the currently available defensive metrics are trustworthy. I think he's more of a 2 oWAR player. As you say, there have been plenty of championship teams starting worse players.

BJ, I'm less optimistic on, but there's a chance he's productive.

What is the ETA for Kubitza and Wren? This strikes me (at least at third) as one of those "he sucks, this prospect and this one are better" moments. The grass is always greener, guys. A cheap line drive hitter with serviceable defense is valuable. You can't have a whole roster full, but you need a few.

I also like his attitude. He has spunk. All through the streak we wanted for a guy who would assault a toilet or a Gatorade bucket from time to time. Now we've got one, and I don't want to get rid of him.

Every club needs a psycho, and CJ is ours.

[nsacpi]

Here are some data on the 2014 performances of some of the protagonists in this saga:

BJ .609 OPS
CJ .684 OPS
Peraza .869 OPS in AA
Kubitza .875 OPS in AA
Wren .712 OPS in AA

[Garmel]

I think a possible solution might be Phillip Gosselin. He can play left field as well. My thinking is that he could play LF, move J Up to RF and Heyward to CF. I think that would help our offense immensely. I realize that's a temporary solution because we don't want to put too much wear and tear on Heyward playing CF but he could do it during the last month or two of the season and the playoffs.

[gilesfan]

CJ's offensive WAR-

10- 2.0
11- -0.9
12- 0.6
13- 3.2
14- 0.4

Dalyn, since you asked the question, what are you optimistic about Johnson on?

I'm not optimistic bc he doesn't walk, doesn't hit for power, and strikes out a lot. His only hope for a productive season is a very high BA. This year, he has a .358 BABIP and is still a black hole in the lineup.

[GovClintonTyree]

CJ's offensive WAR-

10- 2.0
11- -0.9
12- 0.6
13- 3.2
14- 0.4

Dalyn, since you asked the question, what are you optimistic about Johnson on?

I'm not optimistic bc he doesn't walk, doesn't hit for power, and strikes out a lot. His only hope for a productive season is a very high BA. This year, he has a .358 BABIP and is still a black hole in the lineup.

Whatever, dude.

I give CJ 100 OPS points and 1 WAR for being Team Psycho.

That's the kind of value it's hard to quantify.

Seriously, that OPS includes two months of suck. He's over .800 for June/July.

[NinersSBChamps]

Whatever, dude.

I give CJ 100 OPS points and 1 WAR for being Team Psycho.

That's the kind of value it's hard to quantify.

Seriously, that OPS includes two months of suck. He's over .800 for June/July.

You can only talk about stats that make CJ look bad. Current and recent stats are good for him. Naturally those get dismissed.

[gilesfan]

Whatever, dude.

I give CJ 100 OPS points and 1 WAR for being Team Psycho.

That's the kind of value it's hard to quantify.

Seriously, that OPS includes two months of suck. He's over .800 for June/July.

Is he really over .800? I have him roughly .302/.328/.444 with 6 walks and 45 strikeouts in 177 PAs.

If you want to ignore the bad from any player, you can hype them up.

Over, his numbers the last 2 months are pretty close to his career averages.

[nsacpi]

For players at or near their prime years (like CJ and BJ) you want to look at their most recent 3 seasons to get the most accurate read on what level they are most likely to perform at going forward. One or two months is two small a sample. What they did five years ago is also not very relevant.

For young players like Peraza who are improving fast, you have to be willing to settle for a smaller sample size because of rapid changes in performance. I'd say their last 400 at bats is a good compromise.