Originally Posted by
Ventura's Stolen Bases
So, I finished my wild projecting, based on Fangraphs WAR so that the other guy who is doing analysis will have useful data too (plus $/WAR are based off Fangraphs WAR, so eh).
Dollars per WAR were 7.7 mil in 2015 offseason as far as I could tell. Now they are 8.0. I used those numbers for the Braves and White Sox, respectively.
So far, I only had to guess on Gattis' arbitration for year 3, so I guessed 8 mil. Yeah...I know nothing about average arbitration salaries or where to find them.
Guessed on Gattis. Projected Kimbrel based on last two years before trade being about 2.5, tried to factor in aging regression. Projected BJ as 0 because he was 0.6 and -0.3, don't think the actual amount mattered as he was basically a 0 WAR guy. Heyward I figure we should factor in improvement considered likely in 2015. J Up similarly as 2015 was a fluky bad defensive year. Simmons, I felt like everyone thought his offense would improve and his defense stay elite, so I kept him fairly high, well above career average.
Player / Ave WAR / Years / Total WAR / Contract / Surplus Value
Gattis / 1.75 WAR / 4 / 7.0 / 16.93 mil / 4.8 WAR
Kimbrel / 2.1 WAR / 4 / 8.4 / 43.56 mil / 2.74 WAR
BJ Upton / 0 WAR / 3 / 0 / 46.35 mil / -6.6 WAR
Heyward / 6 WAR / 1 / 6 / 7.8 mil / 5.0 WAR
Justin Upton / 3.5 WAR / 1 / 3.5 / 14.5 mil / 1.62 WAR
Simmons / 3.75 WAR / 5 / 18.75 / 53.0 mil / 11.87 WAR
Total Braves surplus value: 19.43 WAR, $149.611 mil
Total Braves without BJ: 26.03 WAR, $200.431 mil
For Eaton, I predicted 4.5 for this year, decreasing from there as 32-33 may be a little old for the outfield to be good defensively, I think. I think 5-6 WAR is high to predict as last year was by far his career year, but I dunno, maybe it's fine. Sale, I went off his last few years as he is in his prime.
Player / Ave WAR / Years / Total WAR / Contract / Surplus Value
Eaton / 3.76 / 5 / 18.8 / 29 mil / 17.18 WAR
Sale / 5.2 / 3 / 15.6 / 38 mil / 11.85 WAR
Total Sox Surplus Value: 29.025 WAR, $232.2 mil
Was that an okay enough analysis that I should keep going and include the prospects we got, Alex Wood, etc.? I feel like I'm not the right guy to do that because that involves arbitration, haha.