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Thread: GDT 8-17-18 THE SON OF THE NIGHT OF THE NEWK

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    Quote Originally Posted by GeorgiaGirl View Post
    There was reports that the Cubs wouldn't mind trading Ian Happ for pitching, so while he's a young position player I don't think he's as coveted as people think.
    They has Schwarber, Heyward, Almora and Zobrist to play outfield.

    They have Bryant, Russell, Baez, Rizzo, Zobrist and La Stella for the infield.

    Newcomb for Happ makes a lot of sense from the Cubs' perspective.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Advocating trading Newcomb for Happ is not running him out of town. You can look at ratio of K rate to BB rate as well as the difference between the two. Each contains some information the other doesn't, but the latter matters more. Take my word for it, a pitcher with a 9 K rate and 3 BB rate is a good deal better than one with a 3 K rate and a 1 BB rate even though both have a 3:1 ratio.
    What about 9.72 k and 5.13 bb to 8.2 k and 4.27 bb?

    9.72 to 5.13 = 1.9 k to bb; difference = 4.59
    8.2 to 4.27 = 1.9 k to bb; difference = 3.93

    This is newcomb last season to this one. He was better last year?

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    What about 9.72 k and 5.13 bb to 8.2 k and 4.27 bb?

    9.72 to 5.13 = 1.9 k to bb; difference = 4.59
    8.2 to 4.27 = 1.9 k to bb; difference = 3.93

    This is newcomb last season to this one. He was better last year?
    pretty close to a wash (and I did mention you want to look at both the ratio and difference) and that's how the FIP and xFIP numbers see it....both see a small improvement and some of that is due to a higher ground ball rate

    if you want to go Joe Simpson on us you can cite his ERA as being better. But we all know that you want to look at FIP and xFIP not ERA.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 08-18-2018 at 11:41 AM.
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    In an ideal world, I would rather see Newk in part of a much bigger package for JT Realmuto, and then just flat sign Machado and Kimbrell for big bucks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    What if I told you you can have gausman, folty, and newcomb in the rotation? Who exactly are we running newcomb out of town in favor of right now?

    I've never really looked at the difference between k9 and bb9. I always thought k9 to bb9 was the ratio you looked at.

    K9 to bb9 for folty...
    Year 1 = 8 to 3.01 = 2.7
    Year 2 = 8.10 to 2.55 = 3.2
    Year 3 = 8.36 to 3.45 = 2.4
    Year 4 = 10.36 to 3.68 = 2.8

    Folty has been pretty consistent in this stat. His k rate has really improved, and it could be the difference this season. It could also be thd BABIP at .272 (career .312)
    I’m not saying I dislike like Newk or Gausman. This is more about the guys coming that I feel will be better than them long term (and cheaper). Gausman and Folty will not be as cheap....Gausman will be more expensive (I like Folty better anyway).

    Either way, in regards to Folty and Newk...we need innings eaters. That’s the main thing missing with those two. It’s not a good idea to have two guys in a rotation that struggle to go deep in games.

    Newk is my choice because he is a big left hander with great stuff under team control and is a proven MLB starter. Someone would take a chance and pay for that. Especially someone with a surplus or position players.

    Having “waves” of pitchers really doesn’t matter if you just keep trading off each wave.

    To me you keep the best one or two of the batch and keep bringing up young guys. This keeps payroll controllable long term.

    A proven MLB starter like Newk is a better asset all day long in a trade scenario. That’s the way I would go.

    Of course....I doubt that happens. The rotation will probably be Folty, Newk, Gausman, Julio/Sanchez and Touki/Fried

    A big trade is coming and two of our big pitchers (and probably one big position player), will be gone....unfortunately.
    Last edited by TheBravos; 08-18-2018 at 12:12 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post


    To me you keep the best one or two of the batch and keep bringing up young guys. This keeps payroll controllable long term.
    I think this is the key. It is very important to identify the right ones to keep and the ones to make available. A topic that probably deserves its own thread.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think this is the key. It is very important to identify the right ones to keep and the ones to make available. A topic that probably deserves its own thread.
    Yes and that’s just it. I feel like we will trade guys BEFORE we identify that. I just feel the top guys all need to be given a chance. Likely not to happen.

    It’s a great problem to have and would have never thought this many guys would make it to “MLB ready”.

    Weigel is likely gonna be a nasty bullpen peice btw.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    If some starters do emerge and surpass newcomb, couldn't he be a potential high leverage reliever throwing just fastball and curve airing it out in short stints?
    That’s exactly the path Oliver Perez took.

    He is an excellent comp to Newk in almost every way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    That’s exactly the path Oliver Perez took.

    He is an excellent comp to Newk in almost every way.
    I would be ok with that BUT at this time wouldn’t he have way more value trade wise with the pretty decent year?

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    I would be ok with that BUT at this time wouldn’t he have way more value trade wise with the pretty decent year?
    Happ > Oliver Perez
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    Braves should not trade a minimum salary left hander with top of the rotation ceiling that made really big strides over the last season.

    If they want to move him when he hits arbitration or bears the end of his control that works for me.

    But trading him to make way for other prospects? Just because you haven’t seen those guys struggle yet?

    Not wise.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Braves should not trade a minimum salary left hander with top of the rotation ceiling that made really big strides over the last season.

    If they want to move him when he hits arbitration or bears the end of his control that works for me.

    But trading him to make way for other prospects? Just because you haven’t seen those guys struggle yet?

    Not wise.
    Happ is also pre-arb. But a position player. Newcomb for Happ has no direct impact on payroll.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Happ is also pre-arb. But a position player. Newcomb for Happ has no direct impact on payroll.
    I wasn’t even talking about Happ really.

    I’m fine with moving any piece for a good player at a position of weakness.

    But I’d rather not trade for someone with a 35% k rate personally.

    I think Happ is a bad player to target.


    But I also don’t see any reason to trade someone with as much upside as Newcomb that is one of the few lefties the Braves have who isn’t a losing proposition.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I wasn’t even talking about Happ really.

    I’m fine with moving any piece for a good player at a position of weakness.

    But I’d rather not trade for someone with a 35% k rate personally.

    I think Happ is a bad player to target.


    But I also don’t see any reason to trade someone with as much upside as Newcomb that is one of the few lefties the Braves have who isn’t a losing proposition.
    maybe Solarte then
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    I recognize that a lot of people love Bryse Wilson, and I've loved what he's done too, but you're really risking it by trading pitchers even if they're established. Have we forgotten about the 2014 season? I don't blame you if you have because of the miserable ending, but that was the summary of you can't have too much pitching. It should be noted, since so many people love Bryse, that Bowman said that he's one of the unreachables without it being ridiculous. Interestingly enough though, Ian Anderson is not.

    We know enough to trade 1 starter if we want to at this point in time but another thing that the 2014 season taught us about was about veteran leadership. So it's either going to be no Julio somehow (who knows how) or trade Newcomb and Julio stays as a veteran number 4/5 starter. 3 spots should be established no matter what... Maybe Anibal returns on a minor league deal as just in case depth.

    After 2014, I'm not just going to have a rotation of a bunch of kids running around just because I want ALL of them to get a shot. Break them all in slowly. Folty/Gausman shouldn't be your veteran presents...
    Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.

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    Looked at happ's stats. He's hitting .243 with a babip of .374. Obp is good at .363, but walk rate is 15.6%. Not sure that's sustainable. He hasn't walked at this rate since A+

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    Quote Originally Posted by GeorgiaGirl View Post
    I recognize that a lot of people love Bryse Wilson, and I've loved what he's done too, but you're really risking it by trading pitchers even if they're established. Have we forgotten about the 2014 season? I don't blame you if you have because of the miserable ending, but that was the summary of you can't have too much pitching. It should be noted, since so many people love Bryse, that Bowman said that he's one of the unreachables without it being ridiculous. Interestingly enough though, Ian Anderson is not.

    We know enough to trade 1 starter if we want to at this point in time but another thing that the 2014 season taught us about was about veteran leadership. So it's either going to be no Julio somehow (who knows how) or trade Newcomb and Julio stays as a veteran number 4/5 starter. 3 spots should be established no matter what... Maybe Anibal returns on a minor league deal as just in case depth.

    After 2014, I'm not just going to have a rotation of a bunch of kids running around just because I want ALL of them to get a shot. Break them all in slowly. Folty/Gausman shouldn't be your veteran presents...
    Just think how many starters we've used this season

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hulavol View Post
    In an ideal world, I would rather see Newk in part of a much bigger package for JT Realmuto, and then just flat sign Machado and Kimbrell for big bucks.
    YES PLEASE LAWD

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Just think how many starters we've used this season
    As long as they get a chance....great. I don’t think they all become TORs. I do think it’s tough to see who does and who doesn’t at this point.

    I still feel like one of Fried or Gohora hits also. Heck last year we were saying Gohora is the dude most likely to be an ACE.

    I just don’t see these guys all getting a good look. There’s just too many. Fried has “barely” gotten a good look and that’s with the ton of injuries and everything that happened to Gohara.

    Camp is gonna be crazy competitive next year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    As long as they get a chance....great. I don’t think they all become TORs. I do think it’s tough to see who does and who doesn’t at this point.

    I still feel like one of Fried or Gohora hits also. Heck last year we were saying Gohora is the dude most likely to be an ACE.

    I just don’t see these guys all getting a good look. There’s just too many. Fried has “barely” gotten a good look and that’s with the ton of injuries and everything that happened to Gohara.

    Camp is gonna be crazy competitive next year.
    AAA rotation is going to be loaded.
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